This chart, by StatsbyLopez, shows the actual win totals of every NFL team, and how they stacked up against preseason predictions both from analytics sites and over/unders from the Vegas sportsbooks. (Click the magnifying glass to expand, or view it full-size at StatsbyLopez.)

There's more about the methodology on the site, but the "statheads" figures were averages of the predictions of five outlets: TeamRankings, Accuscore, FiveThirtyEight, Prediction Machine, and Football Outsiders. (If you're curious, TeamRankings' algorithm was the most accurate, followed by the Vegas lines.)


Beyond that's it's more fun to marvel at the year's surprises, both good and bad. OK, mostly the bad. Poor Bears.

[StatsbyLopez, via The MMQB]