Mike Trout Has Finally Broken Baseball's MathKyle Wagner2/24/14 2:31pmFiled to: mlbbaseballmike troutanaheim angelsgettypicRegressing832EditPromoteShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalinkFor the past few years, Mike Trout has been the biggest steal in sports. He's had two otherworldly seasons, and he's only 22. So on the surface, news that the Angels are trying to lock him up to a six-year deal worth about $150 million makes sense. But it's actually remarkable for how much sense it makes. AdvertisementIn brief, for the uninitiated, Trout has accrued just two years and change of service time in the majors, meaning that he has another four years to go until he can become a free agent. After this season, Trout would be up for arbitration. As a general rule, the three arbitration years come in at 40, 60, and 80 percent of market value, with superstars faring a bit worse. Then, if a player signs an extension beyond those years, they'll "sell" some of their free agent years at market value. But for Trout, who's made just $992,500 the past two years combined, the problem all along has been determining what that market value actually is. The price for one WAR has basically been set at $6 million per season, which, as we've seen with Robinson Cano, can lead to very large numbers if a player projects well. The thing is, projections for next season have Trout down for anywhere from 8.2 to 9.7 WAR, which if you're scoring at home, is between $49.2 and 58.2 million in market value. Dan Szymborski has him down for 9.5 WAR next year, and a total of 76.1 over the next 10 years. If you apply modest 5% annual inflation to the cost of a win, he projects to be worth around $560 million over the next decade, with $400 million of that coming after he'll be eligible for free agency. Obviously, Mike Trout is not going to be paid half a billion dollars, but it looks like he's going to get closer than anyone thought.