After the Jets let Miami's Lamar Miller dash for a 97-yard touchdown run at the beginning of the third quarter, which was the longest play from scrimmage in Dolphins history, they trailed by 10 points, their WPA sat at 20 percent, and it appeared Rex Ryan would lose his last game, which seemed fitting for the hilarious disaster that is the Jets. But New York managed to bounce back, with a special-teams highlight of its own and a great performance from Geno Smith, of all people. According to Advanced Football Analytics data, in their comeback win the Jets accounted for three of the NFL's top five positive plays this week.

Following Miller's long touchdown run, the Jets cut the lead to three when Smith connected with Eric Decker for a 74-yard touchdown. And on the Jets' next drive, Smith hit Decker again, this time heaving a bomb on the run that picked up 50 yards and raised WPA 22 percentage points from 38 percent to 60 percent, and led to a game-tying field goal four plays later.


But the biggest play came with the Jets leading by three, looking to punt the ball to Miami with about four minutes remaining. The Jets faked the kick, and punter Ryan Quigley put some touch on a pass to a very wide open Zach Sudfeld who rumbled for a 38-yard gain that effectively sealed the game, increasing New York's Win Probability 25 percentage points from 70 percent to 95 percent. The fake punt gave the Jets great field position at the Miami 23 and allowed them to maintain control of the ball had they needed to run clock, which proved unnecessary after Smith threw a touchdown pass on the next play.

For a team that had been out of playoff contention for weeks and whose coach would almost certainly be gone after the game, the Jets picked a hell of a time to start playing like this.

Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Line
Drew Brees pass short middle to Marques Colston for 36 yards TOUCHDOWN. NO 0.37 4.42 4 2:05 3 8 36
(Punt formation) Ryan Quigley pass short middle to Zach Sudfeld for 38 yards. NYJ 0.25 4.39 4 4:19 4 12 61
Chris Owusu kickoff return to MIA 12 for 87 yards. NYJ 0.23 5.15 3 15:00 n/a n/a 70
Blake Bortles pass short middle to Cecil Shorts for 18 yards. JAX 0.22 2.98 4 2:24 4 10 62
Geno Smith pass deep right to Eric Decker to MIA 13 for 50 yards. NYJ 0.22 4.25 3 8:49 3 9 63
Blake Bortles pass incomplete short left to Cecil Shorts. JAX -0.28 -1.84 4 1:26 4 5 5
Case Keenum pass INTERCEPTED by Dwayne Gratz at JAX 45, returned for 55 yards TOUCHDOWN. HST -0.25 -7.28 1 3:06 3 7 51
Andy Dalton pass short right to A.J. Green to PIT 31 for 17 yards, FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PIT-Antwon Blake at PIT 30, returned for no gain. CIN -0.22 -3.07 4 4:00 1 10 48
Blake Bortles pass incomplete short right to Marcedes Lewis. JAX -0.21 -1.95 4 1:31 3 5 5
Teddy Bridgewater pass INTERCEPTED by Kyle Fuller at MIN 40, returned for 40 yards TOUCHDOWN. MIN -0.21 -5.49 3 14:53 2 10 65

[Advanced Football Analytics]