Jesus Leonardo (who sounds like a Christian Ninja Turtle or perhaps a sequel to both "Dogma" and "Clerks") has spent the last ten years hanging around off-track betting parlors, and looking for winning slips accidentally thrown out. He's made $45,000 a year. Do you make $45,000 a year? I sure don't.

Leonardo use to place his own bets. In 1999, he thought he had a loser, so he tossed the slip. But after an inquiry of the race, the results changed and he realized he had given up a $900 winner. Searching the trash, he never found his ticket. He did find two others worth $2000. Ever since then he's been a "stooper."

He has since returned nearly every day, waiting patiently for the OTB garbage to be placed at the curb before claiming it and picking out hundreds of betting slips. He places them in a separate garbage bag, which he hauls onto the PATH train for the ride home.

"At first, my wife thought I was crazy, but then she realized I was finding a lot of money in winning tickets, sometimes $200 a day," he said. "After a while, she didn't think I was so crazy."

Rather than be insanely jealous, like me, his fellow betters couldn't be happier for him.

Everybody in here loves Jesus," [Freddy Peguero] said. "When Jesus wins, we all eat, and we all drink. Jesus is a very generous man."

Just like the real Jesus! Only he probably reeks of smoke and urine after tending to his flock.

Picking (Up) Winners Without Placing a Bet [NY Times]

In his interviews with Gumbel, Battista seemed open to discussing anything from his cocaine habit to the best way to covertly take bets from a working NBA official. But when pressed on the issue of Donaghy fixing games, he becomes oddly cagey. To be fair, it is difficult to say "Tim fixed games" without actually saying that he fixed games.

Battista went to high school with Donaghy, lost touch when he became a full-time professional gambler, but then hooked up with him again after learning that Donaghy had a gambling problem. See, the thing is, everyone is in universal agreement that Donaghy was terrible at picking games ... unless they happened to be the games that he was working. Battista set up an amazing arrangement where he would serve as Donaghy's bookie, but Donaghy never had to pay out on losses—he was only rewarded for his wins. That seems like a guy who is pretty confident that his wins will win big. Which they did, about 80% of the time.

Battista's whole story is kind of convoluted and Swiss-cheese like (look for the re-runs to see the whole thing), so who really knows what the full truth is. But Battista is definitely trying to say something, if we could only decode what he's really getting at.

WINK!

Oh, and in a "interesting, if true" postscript—a "source" tells a local Boston TV station that Battista says he had 13 NBA referees in his stable and will soon write a tell-all book exposing the whole charade. Should I start holding my breath now or should we wait for fourth-party confirmation from the mailman?

HBO: Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel - The Insider [HBO]
Ex-Referee Donaghy's Accomplice Says They Bet on Many Games [NY Times]
Source: Gambler claims 13 referees involved in NBA betting scandal [WHDH]

Reader Ward writes:

"I was in Vegas with some buddies last weekend [Halloween Weekend] and we saw this guy and his buddy playing craps at Caesars. This guys was pretty strong with the dice and we all won a bunch of $ off his throws. Later I saw him at the sports book placing a World Series bet. I thought the image was a classic."

Makes sense. I mean, you wouldn't go to the stadium without wearing the jersey of your favorite player, right? So why would you to Vegas without honoring and drawing inspiration from the legendary gamblers of our time? Unless this is actually Pete Rose Jr., in which case it's just sad.

I wonder if he apologized in advance for betting on baseball.

* * * * *

Has anything good ever happened on a Tuesday? Let's try to change that.

The unprecedented quality gap in the NFL has been murder on bookmakers — and it doesn't appear to be closing anytime soon. Last week, 10 of 13 favorites covered, with six games decided by at least 28 points. "We've seen disparity before, but never of this magnitude," says Jay Kornegay, director of the Hilton sports book in Las Vegas.

"The gap is widening between the top and bottom teams in the NFL, and it's not a good scenario for sports books. The general public understands that there are six or seven noncompetitive teams in the NFL this year — and many aren't even covering at halftime. So we don't want a knee-jerk reaction, but we do want to be aggressive because history tells us that some of these teams will be somewhat improved, or at least try to be competitive, where they're covering double-digit numbers."

Yet halfway through the season, the NFL's best teams seem to be gaining momentum, not losing it. Two more double-digit favorites — the Colts and Patriots — easily covered last week, to the dismay of bookmakers. "All the exposure this year with the Bradys, the Drew Breeses, the Peyton Mannings is magnifying the problem for us," Kornegay says. "Your typical bettor knows this and they understand how ridiculously bad some of these bottom-rung teams are."

Bookmakers, according to Kornegay, have been more aggressive about adjusting for "noncompetitive teams" — i.e., point spread inflation — but they're nevertheless still struggling to entice underdog bettors.

"Last week, when you're looking at the Rams getting 14 points at home and the Buccaneers getting 15 points on a neutral field, those historically are huge numbers," he says. "Normally, you'd see maybe getting 10 or 11 at home or 12 on a neutral field, but not 15. So the oddsmakers actually made the adjustments, and the sharper money was actually on the underdogs. The sharper money had one of their worst weeks ever because they were taking the value of these inflated lines. The books couldn't overcome all the parlays that accumulated with all the betting patterns that we saw."

Eventually, Kornegay predicts, the league will strike equilibrium. This time last year, double-digit underdogs were 17-1 against the spread. "Historically, the NFL has always been pretty competitive," he says. "This has got to be one of the worst years as far as the parity — or lack of parity — is concerned."

For a brief moment last Sunday, after Miami struck out to an early 24-3 lead against New Orleans, things seemed to be evening out a little. Then Drew Brees mounted an unlikely comeback to win (and cover), and the house's streak of hard luck continued. "The sports books have gotten a lot of bad breaks this year," Kornegay says. "Philadelphia scored 27 points last week against the Redskins, and they were never even in the red zone. That's crazy. How can you score 27 points without being in the red zone? You play the Redskins, I guess."

Handicap Zone

49ers +13 at Colts:
Kornegay: "The 49ers are an average team. So here we are, an average team going to the Colts and getting 13 points. Historically, that doesn't happen. That's something that's been adjusted because of what we've seen over the last few weeks. The Colts are one of the most popular teams. We've bumped the number up pretty aggressively because we anticipate the action coming in on the Colts."

Broncos +3 at Ravens:
Kornegay: "The Broncos have been one of the sports books' best friend because people have been betting against them all year. I anticipate the sharp money coming in on the Ravens, coming in off three losses and the bye week — and this being a much bigger game for them than for the Broncos."

Bad Beats: Readers Share Their Tales Of Woe

Okay, you want bad beats. I'm a long-time bettor, and here are my two worst.

First, (this one tops them all I think), back in the early 90's before Pete Carroll arrives at USC, they are a bad team, and they are +9 points on the road against Arizona State. Feeling that's too many points for ASU to lay, I bet $300 on USC. Fast forward to the 4th quarter. USC is LEADING by 7 with 1:20 to go. At +9, my bet is a lock right?

Well, sit back and enjoy what happens next. USC coach John Robinson decides to back off on his pass rush, go into a prevent defense, and ASU marches down the field and ties the game with 14 seconds to go. What do I care? I've got USC at +9. So, we go to overtime. ASU gets the ball first and immediately scores a touchdown to take a 7 point lead. Now it's USC's turn. After a 6 yard gain on their first play from scrimmage, their QB decides to throw an out pattern to the right side. The ASU defender reads it, steps in front, and returns it for an 81 yard touchdown. ASU wins BY 13 and covers!!! Still hard to believe to this day!!

Here's the second one. I have the Houston Astros with Roy Oswalt on the mound at the Pirates. This is sometime around 2002. $2250 to win $1500 which is a really, really big bet for me. It's the Fox Saturday game of the week, and the Astros are up 8-2 going into the 9th inning. I am counting my money. They bring in some scrub reliever to mop up the game, and he actually gets the first two batters out. Let me repeat: HE GOT THE FIRST TWO BATTERS OUT!!! So, I'm up 8-2 with two outs in the bottom of the 9th, and the Pirates have no runners on base. Pat Meares, the Pirates .182 hitting shortstop then draws a walk, Orlando Merced gets a single, and the next two batters reach as well.

It's now 8-3, and the Astros manager reluctantly strolls to the mound to bring in a new reliever. The new reliever promptly gives up 2 hits and a walk making it 8-5 with two runners on base. Now the Astros manager walks to the mound again, and signals with his left hand. Billy Wagner, who was half-heartedly warming up, never even dreaming he'd be called into the game, is now summoned to the mound and is thrust into a save situation. He promptly walks the first batter to load the bases, and Brian Giles, the pirates clean-up hitter steps up to the plate. He sends Wagner's first pitch over the right field wall to give the Pirates a 9-8 win. Now, I've taken some really bad baseball beats in the past, but that one sticks out in my mind as being the worst. (Mike C.)

My bad beat story is about the first time I made the trip to Atlantic City . I was about a year out of college, working a crap job that didn't pay a whole lot when a good friend of mine asked me if I wanted to go to Atlantic City . Seeing as how I'd never gone, I said yes. In my mind, I had the luck of being a first time gambler and couldn't lose, as it was certainly my destiny to win big and never have to work again.

I took $500 with me, which is a nice chunk of change, but was definitely A LOT more money to me in 2003 than it is now. We got to AC at around 9 pm on a Saturday, and I proceed to the Blackjack tables, because Blackjack was supposed to be easy to win money playing. By 10 pm, I had no money left. I thought for sure I could get it back, so I went to the ATM and pulled out another $500. Between 10 pm and 11:30 pm, I proceeded to lose the second $500, bringing my losses to $1000. Being the first time I had played Blackjack, at this point I had just started to figure out "my system" to beat the casino and win my money back. My bank at the time allowed me to withdraw $500 every midnight to midnight time period, so I went back to the ATM. At precisely 12:01, I withdrew another $500, and went back to the tables to win my rent, car payment, insurance payment, student loan payment, and credit card payment back. My checking account balance after this withdrawal stood at exactly $38.92, but I knew I would be able to recoup my losses and get most if not all or more of my money back. I don't think I have to tell you what happens next, but I played up and down (mostly down) for about 2 hours, and when I realized I only had $50 of the $1500 total withdrawal left, I stopped playing, and went to go find my friend, who proudly showed me the $1800 he had won playing poker over the last 5 hours while I lost damn near every penny I had.

At that point, I did what any self respecting young man who had just lost his ass would do: I spent my last $50 at the strip club. When I told my friend I was out of money and he would have to pay for gas, tolls, food, etc on the way home, he was kind about it. He even bought me a lap dance.

That loss crippled me financially for months, and it took me a long time to feel comfortable back in AC, or Vegas. Now when I go to gamble, I always tell that story to whomever I'm gambling with, and have them hold onto my wallet after I've taken out the money I know I can lose without setting me back. (Rob)

I got an unconventional story for Bad Beats as it involves me winning some money. But it also involves me cursing my favorite team, so that has to count for something right?

My story starts on a lovely day. June 18, 2006 to be exact. I was a fresh-faced 22 year old, and it was my first time in Vegas. The trip had been planned for months. The main purpose of the trip was so we could bet on like four World Cup games a day. But most remember that June for the Mavs-Heat NBA Finals. Now, I have a huge boner for the Mavs. And as luck would have it, the end of the finals was going to coincide with the start of my trip.

We arrive on the morning of Game 5. This game is pivotal as the Heat has tied the series and the Mavs really need to take this one on in Miami. Now, I should point out that I have a general rule to not bet on teams that I root for. I am to heavily involved to think rationally so I usually steer clear. But I'm in VEGAS. FOR THE FIRST TIME. What better way to bust that cherry than to make my first bet on my favorite team. I mean, they were clearly better than the Heat, so how could they lose, right. Right?

So I go to a few books and place a couple of bets. At one I take the Mavs +2, then at another I parlay the Mavs +3 and the over. I'm looking to make $200 on $50. I'm excited as hell. But I have this feeling that I have just done something disastrous. So, it's game time and we head over to Ceasar's to watch the game. It starts off well for the Mavs and by halftime they are up 51-43. So I decide to get frisky. I go put $30 on the 2nd half over. So, to recap I got $80 down to win about $300. That was a lot for a sheltered Southern Baptist kid who was used to putting 5 bucks in the squares pool at work. The rest is history. The Heat go on a run. But Dirk comes up money. Then D-Wade (FUCK YOU!!!) gets bailed out by the worst phantom call in Finals history and the Heat (or Bennett's Kids as I like to call them) steal a 101-100 victory. But my misery only grows. I look down, and I have won ALL of my bets. I have $300 in tainted money. I broke my rule and now the Mavs have lost three straight. I have cursed my team and now hold cursed money.

Two days later, I watched the end of the epic collapse from the bottom of my 12th Jack & Coke. I vomited on the way back to the room. And I didn't win one bet the rest of the trip...and 6 days later I went home and cried. (Jeff A.)

Share your bad beat with the world. E-mail us at tips@deadspin.com. Subject: Bad beats.

Religious Prop Bet Of The Week: Thetan Edition

Via Paddy Power:

"First celebrity to leave the Church of Scientology"

John Travolta 9/4
Katie Holmes 3/1
Lisa Marie Presley 4/1
Jason Lee 6/1
Priscilla Presley 8/1
Chaka Khan 10/1
Nancy Cartwright 12/1
Brandy 14/1
Beck 18/1
Kirstie Alley 25/1
Tom Cruise 50/1

Well, since he bounced about $1 million worth of checks in Las Vegas you can chalk a healthy portion of that up to gambling losses. But that doesn't explain it all way. Walker was a generous friend and teammate. A little too generous. A Boston Globe investigation into the former Celtic's lavish lifstyle includes free spending, not just on himself—in 2002, he had a new suit made for every day of the playoffs so he wouldn't have to wear the same one twice—but on those in his very large orbit. Teammates say he routinely picked up giant dinner tabs on the road or would hire limos to take everyone out on the town. According to his mother, at one point Walker was financially supporting seventy of his friends and relatives.

However, Diane Walker doesn't see what's wrong with that:

Walker's mother, Diane, said her son does not have a gambling problem. She added that "he doesn't party any more than the next person'' and "what you do with your life is your business.''

"Antoine doesn't owe anybody any explanation,'' said Diane Walker. "He's not out here hurting anybody. He's trying to live his life peacefully. That's all he's doing . . . My son is young. Why can't he just enjoy life, go where he wants to go?''

Because, believe it or not, $110 million does not last a entire lifetime. (At least not when you're spending $10 million a year on watches.) Apparently, Walker gave very little thought to where that money might come from once his basketball career was over. When he did invest, he invested poorly or simply gave it away to charities. Sadly, playing $15,000-a-hand blackjack with Michael Jordan is not a sound retirement strategy.

In 1999, when he signed a six-year, $71 million deal with the Celtics, then-president and coach Rick Pitino said Walker "will never have to worry about money again in his life." So add that to the list of everything else Pitino got wrong in Boston.

Former Celtics star Antoine Walker pursued by creditors as wealth vanishes [Boston Globe]

In football, as in life, things tend to equalize over the long run, with no hot streak going unpunished. That's why the house — after getting hammered by bettors with favorites all year — finally got even with the betting public last Sunday when favorites underachieved across the board. Four of the six teams favored by more than nine points failed to cover; two of them (the Eagles and Jets) lost straight up. Parity must be coming back. Yet going into Week 7, most NFL bettors are sill laying the wood with the heavy favorites, even on the road or in Europe, where anything goes.

This week, the heaviest action lies once again with the two biggest favorites: Indianapolis (at 95 percent) and New England (at 92 percent), giving -13 and -15.5, respectively. But neither team is playing at home — the Patriots are in London — which undermines that old saw about large road favorites being a terrible play. Over the last 107 games in which the road team has been favored by at least a touchdown, the favorite has covered only 38 times — a winning percentage of 37 percent.

Only the worst teams provide exception to this rule.

After all, what does "home-field advantage" really amount to for a team like the Rams? When the bulk of crowd noise is coming from the enemy camp, it amounts to a nice advantage for the visiting team. Rams lineman Richie Incognito argued this point last year when he questioned his hometown fans' passion and general football aptitude following a bad loss to the Bears: "They don't know how to cheer, when to cheer. We get the other team's fans coming in, and they cheer real nice for us. It provides for a good football atmosphere having the Chicago fans down here." Demoralizing as the scenario is for players, it's typical of traveling fans of popular "public" teams — like the Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Ohio State Buckeyes — to outnumber the hometown crowd in football voids like St. Louis.

And limp football crowds have a bigger impact on the spread than people realize.

An expert told Chad Milliman, ESPN's Behind the Bets columnist that "one factor when determining how much the fans traveling goes into the spread is when public teams are playing in small market venues. That's when they're more likely to fill seats, especially when those home teams are having down years."

The Rams, on their sixth consecutive down year, are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a 'dog in the foe-filled Edward Jones Done. Making matters worse, the Colts are 9-3 ATS the last 12 road games against NFC opponents — and their fans travel well.

Bad Beats: Readers Share Their Tales Of Woe

That I can remember this so vividly nearly five years later is testament to how painful this was, especially considering the massive quantities of alcohol I ingested to try to forget it.

It was December 4, 2004, and I was in my first semester of law school. Law school was stressful enough with our first exams only days away, but added to that was the stress of the holidays coming up and my student loan check from August running out. My check for next semester wasn't going to show up for at least another month, and I was flat broke. Out in the real world before law school I had gotten used to getting paid twice a month, and to go from that to getting one giant check every few months wreaked havoc on my already lousy skills of budgeting. Rent was due Jan. 2, and I didn't have it. Nor did I have money for the power bill, the cell phone bill, or my next credit card payment. I was FUCKED.

In October of 2004, a friend introduced me to the magical world of online sports betting. I deposited something like $50, and then went on an unimaginable hot streak. Everything I touched turned to gold. Eventually I had over a grand in my account, from an original $50. I never worried about my finances, because I figured that at any time I could cash out my online betting account and be sitting pretty. Well, supreme overconfidence, greed and whiskey conspired to make me lose over a thousand dollars on the NFL over one awful Thanksgiving weekend. It was a moronic rookie mistake. I saw how much money I had, I couldn't lose, so why not swing for the fences?? So I went big on one game. And lost horribly. Then I panicked because I just lost half my bankroll, and frantically tried to make it back. I ended up in quicksand on one of the most hellacious losing streaks I've ever known to this day. In one weekend, I lost it all but about $20.

I was beyond devastated. To make it worse, I got my first overdraft notice from my checking account in the mail. After several days of very dark thoughts, I gathered myself. And on Friday morning Dec. 3, instead of studying for exams, I ground out a list of pro and college football and basketball games that I liked. I picked my favorite ten wagers, on games taking place Friday night or Saturday morning, said a prayer and put down $10 on a ten-team parlay. $10 to win over $7,000. Having lost probably ten bets in a row, I wasn't optimistic. Just desperate.

After the Friday night NBA games, I was a miraculous 7 for 7. SEVEN FOR SEVEN. It was unreal. I had to get hammered just to sleep that night. Then Saturday morning, Pittsburgh slaughters South Florida in football to easily cover. EIGHT FOR EIGHT. I am losing my fucking mind at this point, hyperventilating and getting dizzy. SEVEN. THOUSAND. DOLLARS. That's me paying off my entire credit card balance, paying off each and every bill including rent for a few months, buying my family some sweet Christmas presents and not thinking about money again until next fall.

Last two games are college basketball. I've got UNC -10 over Kentucky, and Wake Forest -18 over Richmond. UNC is the early game, and HOLY SHIT they cover by the skin of their teeth. I'm getting chest pains. I AM NINE FOR NINE WITH ONE GAME BETWEEN ME AND $7,000. It's all on Wake Forest, who is now comfortably ahead of Richmond, always hovering around a 20 point lead.

Well, obviously Wake Forest doesn't cover. But oh, it's HOW they didn't cover that was so perfect. Wake Forest is up by 22 with a little over a minute and a half left. But then the scrubs start to file in, and the turnovers start piling up. These assholes begin a turnover festival that took years off my life. We're under 30 seconds left, Wake Forest grabs a defensive rebound with an 18 point lead. 18 is a push. That won't get me $7000 BUT I WILL FUCKING TAKE IT. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS GET THE BALL OVER THE TIMELINE AND DRIBBLE OUT THE FUCKING CLOCK YOU SCRUB MOTHERFUCKERS. But of course that doesn't happen. Wake Forest turns the ball over. Then Wake commits a foul. Richmond is in the double bonus. Some cocksucker on Richmond steps up to the line with TWO SECONDS LEFT IN THE GAME. He clanks the first one just because, fuck me, right Universe? Then he makes the second. Game over, Wake wins by 17, does not cover. Ten team parlay lost. $7,000 down to $0.

I woke up on my living room floor the next morning after drinking a life-threatening amount. Apparently my roommate had people over that night and they just stepped over my lifeless corpse.

I ended up taking out a high-interest "emergency" student loan from Citibank, which I'm still getting raped on to this day. Surprisingly, I did not shoot myself, but I did do terrible on my exams. (J.S.)

This isn't mine in that I didn't make the bet, but I did take it, sort of.

A friend of mine in college (this was at Ohio State) was a bookie, and on Saturday mornings it was a madhouse at his apartment, where I usually was watching pregame, drinking, and getting high. I often answered the phone when the caller ID (this was before cell phones) was someone I knew better than him. So, one morning I answer it and it's a kid I know who's a lazy, loud mouth, Irish drunk. He asks me what the Indy line is. Thinking he's referring to Indiana, I tell him. He tells it to someone in the background, hems and haws, and then says to put him down for $50.

Games are played. Indiana gets crushed by god knows who, but this kid calls the same apartment later to try to collect on his bet. I'm baffled. He's indignant. Turns out he wanted to bet on Notre Dame, who had just pulled off an upset of some kind (no idea who – sorry). I told him he was fucked, but consulted everyone in the room anyway, explaining the confusion, and they backed me up, so he was still fucked. The verdict: no one EVER says ND for Notre Dame. Ever. This is like saying DU for Duke. (Tom R.)

My first trip to Las Vegas, March 1999. Had no idea how to bet sports, which of course did not constrain me in the least. I bet a 5-game NBA parlay, stood to pay off $2200 on a pretty small bet. First 4 games hit. The last: Clippers +10 at home against the Trail Blazers. Clips winning the whole game, up 12 at the beginning of the 4th and up 8-10 most of the last quarter. I'm already spending the $2Gs, when all of the sudden the Blazers make a furious run, tying the game on a Damon Stoudamire bucket with :01 left. No worries, I think—not even the Clips can lose by 10 in OT. And yet, there go the Blazers, sprinting out to a comfortable lead. Garbage time. As the clock winds down, Blazers up 8 with the seconds ticking down, Clips have the ball, I'm still feeling OK. Then a Clipper launches a shot that is as unsuccessful as it is irrelevant, rebounded by the Blazers' Kelvin Cato with :01 left. Cato is then quickly FOULED by Lorenzen Wright, who evidently thought there was still a chance to tie on a half-second 8-point full court shot if Cato missed. But still no problem, right—Kelvin Cato's a 50% free throw shooter, 0-2 already on the night, as I recall. Of course, he promptly sinks both free throws. Blazers win by 10. Unbelievable.

Here's where the novice better part comes in. I'm so disgusted I walk out of the TI, rip up my ticket, and toss it into the lagoon. Only to be told that, if a game in a parlay pushes, they'll take that game off and pay the rest. In other words, I ripped up a perfectly good 4-game parlay worth $1500 or so.

I have to think that that is the worst NBA gambling beat ever. (Eric in Cincinnati)

Share your bad beat with the world. E-mail us at tips@deadspin.com. Subject: Bad beats.

Sacrilegious Prop Bet Of The Week: White Smoke Edition



Via Paddy Power:

The betting for who will succed Pope Benedict XVI is hotting up following reports that the 82-year-old was taken to hospital after suffering a fall on holiday in the Alps. The Vatican may well be watching this space!

"Who Will Be The Next Pope?"

Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 5/1
Cardinal Angelo Scola (Venice) 7/1
Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras) 7/1
Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco (Italy) 8/1
Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Argentina) 9/1
Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone (Italy) 10/1
Count Christoph von Schoenborn (Austria) 10/1
Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) 10/1
Archbishop Piero Marini (Italy) 12/1
Cardinal Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa (Chile) 14/1
Claudio Hummes (Brazil) 14/1
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada) 18/1
Daniel DiNardo (Galveston-Houston) 18/1
Cardinal Renato Martino (Italy) 20/1
Cardinal Ruini (Italy) 20/1
Cardinal Karl Lehmann (Germany) 20/1
Wilfred Napier (South Africa) 20/1
Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico) 20/1
Jose Da Cruz Policar (Portugal) 20/1
JaimeLucas Ortega y Alamino (Cuba) 20/1
Attilio Cardinal Nicora (Roman Curia) 20/1
Angelo Sodano (Italy) 25/1
Antonio María Rouco Varela (Spain) 33/1
Cardinal Sean Brady (Ireland) 33/1
Philippe Barbarin (France) 33/1
Cormac Murphy-O'Connor (UK) 40/1
Giacomo Biffi (Italy) 40/1
Giovanni Battista Re (Italy) 40/1
Lopez Rodriguez (Dominican Republic) 50/1
Timothy Dolan (USA) 50/1
Cardinal Dario Castrillion Hoyos (Colombia) 50/1
Geraldo Majella Agnelo (Brazil) 50/1
Keith O Brien (Scotland) 50/1
Cardinal Odilo Scherer (Sao Paulo) 50/1
Godfried Danneels (Belgium) 66/1
Cardinal George Pell (Australia) 66/1
Diarmuid Martin 66/1
Cardinal Walter Kasper (Germany) 66/1
Francis George (USA) 80/1
Cardinal Amigo Vallejo (Spain) 80/1
Cardinal Carlo Maria Matini (Italy) 100/1
Silvano Piovanelli (Italy) 125/1
Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) 1000/1
Bono (Ireland) 1000/1

•Ole Miss is trying to crack down on students chanting "The South Will Rise Again" at the end of one of their fight songs. With an anemic four touchdowns in SEC play, it makes you wonder when they heard the fight song enough to criticize.

•The Angels shook off a seventh inning Yankees rally with one of their own, and sent the series back to New York, where it's supposed to rain all weekend. At this point, the ALCS will end sometime around game three of the World Series.

•Looks like Bud Selig's watching the playoffs closely, even if the umpires aren't. Baseball will announce that only veteran umps will work the World Series, breaking with the tradition of including one first-timer. I'm not sure this is the answer. You know who has worked a World Series game? Don Denkinger.

•Liverpool's team shop has sold out of beach balls, and they plan to search Man U fans for them before Sunday's match. Actually, I don't even have a comment. That's pretty damn hilarious.

•Frank McCourt has fired his soon-to-be ex-wife from her position as CEO of the Dodgers. Well, shit, if all it takes to get a nice severance package is to sleep with the boss for 30 years...does someone have Nick Denton's number?

•Caroline Wozniacki was up 7-5, 3-0 when bettors around the world began putting money on her opponent. Wozniacki then retired one game away from victory, and the WTA is looking into it. Obviously something's fishy, because people were betting on women's tennis.

After Derek Anderson's 2-for-17 performance last week against the Bills, bookmakers are desperate to find somebody — anybody — willing to take the Browns (+14) this Sunday at Pittsburgh. Such lopsided matchups are causing a headache for bookmakers; parity is vanishing from the NFL faster than they can accommodate with increasingly bloated point-spreads. With good teams routinely trouncing awful ones, sports books are struggling to come up with spreads big enough to attract two-way action on clear blow-out games like last Sunday's Giants/Raiders debacle (guess which team failed to draw its share of the action). Bettors laying the wood with big favorites this year are being rewarded at an astonishing clip: nine of 12 double-digit favorites have covered this season, with three of four — Minnesota, Philly and the Giants — covering last week (only the Steelers failed to cover). Meanwhile, bookmakers can't post big enough figures to turn the Bucs, Rams, Raiders or Browns into appealing plays.

Vegas is left reminiscing about the good old days when two-touchdown underdogs were actually playable.

"It used to be, taking 14 points in the NFL was considered value betting," Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, director of sports for Lucky's Race and Sports Book tells Covers.com. "People aren't so quick to jump on it these days." For the betting majority, the 2009 NFL season "has been a bargain so far. People are going to bet these [top] teams, and I expect to see much of the same, particularly against the super bad teams."

It's much of the same this week, with three two-touchdown spreads and only one underdog — Detroit +14 at Green Bay — drawing significant action (53 percent, according to sportsbook.com). Ninety-one percent of the action in the Eagles/Raiders game is on the Eagles (-14); 83 percent of Browns-Steelers bettors are backing the Steelers (-14).

But the trend of favorite-dominance may be short-lived. Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Weekly says that big favorites often roll this early in the season before the league inches towards equilibrium: "It can pay not to fear laying a lot of points in the opening weeks. And it has paid handsomely in recent years. In the long term, though, it is a dangerous strategy."

History validates Wilkening's theory: In the opening five weeks of 2006, double-digit favorites were 6-3 against the spread; in 2007, they opened at 6-4. But stretched over three years, double-digit favorites are just 56-70 overall ATS. (The 2007 Patriots began 5-0 ATS, and finished the season 2-11 when opposing defenses and oddsmakers adjusted). Could this year be an exception, with a troupe of historically bad teams showing no signs of life? If the winless Chiefs, Bucs and Rams all lose, it will be the first time in NFL history that three teams have lost 10 games in a row.

Handicap Zone

My picks are underlined.

And then there are games getting plenty of two-way action, like the Giants +3 at New Orleans. "This looks like the game of the weekend," Vaccaro says. "We've all received money on these teams for the first five weeks. Now, the bettors have to make a decision." The Saints opened up a 3-point favorite (-120) and received heavy action, pushing the line to -3 (-125), "an obvious sign the books don't want to get off '3' in what will be a huge betting game," says Micah Roberts, per Vegas Insider.com.

Two teams moving the lines this week are the Broncos and Bengals, both whose naysayers appear to have finally backed down. The Broncos opened at +4.5 to San Diego before recent Bronco converts pulled the line down to +3.5 on a wave of early money. Is there an opportunity here? "It's the first time all season that the Broncos have been bet on which usually means the they'll be a good bet against with so much weight and opinion on their side," Roberts says.

Similarly, the Bengals opened a 3.5 home point favorite against the Texans and have since been bumped up to -5.5, where the line has frozen.

The lock of the week, in this sucker's opinion, smells like the Chiefs (+6.5) at Washington. The Redskins are charitable — the last time they were 6.5 favorites over a winless team, they wound up giving that team its first win in two seasons and lifting the spirits of a downtrodden city. Don't be surprised if they do the same for Kansas City.

Bad Beats: Readers Share Their Tales Of Woe

You hear lots of stories from gamblers about bad beats, here is one from the other side, a bad beat on a bookie.

So a few years back I was playing poker to pay the rent. I was at a game 5+ nights a week and knew a pretty big circle of gamblers. Since I was around all these people who liked to gamble I decided I could make a nice profit by booking sports bets. There wasn't a bookie at the poker games so the market was wide open. I started up in January of that year mostly doing NBA and NCAABB with the occasional NASCAR, golf or tennis bet thrown in. Everything was going pretty well and the poker players liked being able to bet on the NBA game that they were watching while playing so I had a nice amount of bets coming in. One guy who was notably awful at poker decided to try his luck at sports figuring he couldn't do worse. He bet about 10 NCAABB games every weekend and usually went around .500 meaning after the vig he would lose about $50 betting $110 a game. He was pretty flush with cash from whatever he did for a living so I extended him some credit which he never stiffed me on.

One night he and I went to a local bar and decided to get quite drunk. This was Friday evening and 22 or 23 of the top 25 NCAABB were playing and he decided he wanted to bet every singe one of those games, it worked out to 20 games. I marked down his bets in my phone and wrote them out for him on a piece of paper. We called it a night and I went home to enter his and other bets into the database I used. The next day he texted me to make sure of the bets he has in play as he lost the paper. I watched a few of the early games and everything was going my way. My book was unbalanced on some of these games so I had a few that I actually cared about. After the early games I knew that even if I got hammered in the afternoon and evening games I was going to have a good profit and so I stopped watching and started getting ready for a concert I was headed to that evening. On the drive with friends (it was about 2 hours), I checked the scores for the day on my phone and saw I was killing this guy. My book was still new so on some of these games this guy was the only bet. By the time the next day rolled around he had gone 17-3. Visions of a new subwoofer for my car danced in my head.

On Monday I went to the poker game he always settled up with me at. Hmmm, no sign of him. I ask the guy who runs the game whats up and the whole table says, "He's dead." I presume this is a joke but nope they pull out the newspaper and show me the funeral announcement. This guy had gotten massively drunk and stoned on Saturday night, passed out on his back and drowned in his own vomit. The moral here is twofold. First, be careful extending lines of credit in your illegal bookmaking operation. Second, pass out on your stomach. (Brad C.)

The Pats getting shut out in the 2nd half and losing in OT coincided right about at that juncture where your Sunday Fundays start to fade into your Suicide Mondays. Fck that sleeveless hoodie wearing asshole.

Given I would have hedged the Sunday night game knowing I just needed the Colts to cover, but it would have turned my wknd around for sure.

Until next time,
Degenerates Anonymous

Wager details for ticket number 8321189-1:

Wager Type: Parlay (8 team)
Accepted By: Internet
Wager Status: Loss
Risk / To Win Amount: 25.00 / 1,619.27 (USD) Accepted 10/11/2009 11:10 AM - EST
Lost: 25.00
Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Minnesota Vikings 10/11/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
-600
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #2
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Dallas Cowboys 10/11/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
-400
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #3
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Cleveland Browns 10/11/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+6 -110
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #4
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Detroit Lions 10/11/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+10½ -110
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #5
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Atlanta Falcons 10/11/2009 4:05:01 PM - (EST)
+105
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #6
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Loss
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
New England Patriots 10/11/2009 4:15:01 PM - (EST)
-3 -110
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #7
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Seattle Seahawks 10/11/2009 4:15:01 PM - (EST)
-1½ -110
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5

Item #8
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Indianapolis Colts 10/11/2009 8:20:01 PM - (EST)
-3½ -110
* Event Notes:
NFL - Week 5 (Alexander)

In 2005, I went to Reno for my bachelor party, on the second day there i put $15 down on an eight team baseball parlay. The payout was $1150. The games were spread out the day and I didnt even really pay attention to it til I hit the first six. The last two games started at the same time so there was no real way to hedge. It was just $15 bucks, no big deal, right? So, i hit the seventh game and just needed the Seattle Mariners to beat the Boston Red Sox for me to hit the most amazing bet of my life. (I was still in college and that money could have gone a long way to paying for our honeymoon)

Ryan Franklin has started for the Mariners and had pitched pretty welk, he was lifted in the sixth inning with in a 1-1 lead. Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez went back to back in the bottom of the sixth to give me a 3-1 lead. At this point i start getting completely excited and buy beers for the people watching the game with me at the bar. That was mistake # 1. The seventh inning rolled around and the red sox put together a rally. They had scored one and had the bases loaded with 1 out and Man-Ram up. At this point I am no longer thinking about losing $15 bucks I am thinking it as losing $1150. The Mariners go to the bullpen and bring in a young JJ Putz to put out the fire. After a long at bat he struck out Manny on a 3-2 pitch. Everyone around me went wild. I ordered up a second round of drinks. After all, Trot Nixon was next up. No problem. That was Mistake #2. I will let the play by play explain what happened next...

Top 7th: Boston
- B. Mueller singled to left center
- R. Villone relieved S. Hasegawa
- M. Bellhorn doubled to left, B. Mueller scored
- J. Damon grounded out to pitcher
- E. Renteria singled to right, M. Bellhorn to third
- D. Ortiz hit by pitch, E. Renteria to second
- J.J. Putz relieved R. Villone
- M. Ramirez struck out swinging
- T. Nixon homered to deep right, M. Bellhorn, E. Renteria and D. Ortiz scored
- K. Millar lined out to third

5 runs, 4 hits, 0 errors
Boston 6, Seattle 3

That's right, Trot Motherfucking Nixon hit a grand slam to crush my dreams. I was now out the $15 bucks plus the $50 in bar tab for two rounds of drinks. JJ Putz can still go fuck himself. After the game was over, I wandered down to the blackjack table to play off my troubles. That was mistake #3.

That little $15 dollar parlay ended up costing me about $450. Good times. (Luis)

Share your bad beat with the world. E-mail us at tips@deadspin.com. Subject: Bad beats.

Outlandish prop bet of the week: Garter Jeans Edition

Via Paddy Power:

A cheeky new fashion craze is sweeping the US and threatening to divide fashionistas worldwide. Garter jeans are proving hugely popular in the States and it's only a matter of time before the latest trend rears its head in the UK and Ireland!

"Who will be the 1st Celeb to wear Garter Jeans in public?"

Katie Price 4/1
Katy Perry 14/1
B*Witched 40/1
Jodie Marsh 6/1
Kate Moss 16/1
Beyonce 50/1
Lady GaGa 6/1
Pamela Anderson 18/1
Jennifer Lopez 80/1
Britney Spears 8/1
Peaches Geldof 18/1
Leona Lewis 100/1
Christina Aguilera 8/1
Lily Allen 25/1
Whitney Houston 150/1
Megan Fox 10/1
Shakira 25/1
Chelsy Davy 250/1
Rihanna 10/1
Rosanna Davison 25/1
Kate Middleton 500/1
Cheryl Cole 12/1
Victoria Beckham 33/1

Top image via Midwest Sports Fans

Week 4 revealed the only two rules of NFL handicapping: No matter the circumstance, never, ever bet against Peyton Manning or on JaMarcus Russell. Even if the opposing team has the league's worst-ranked defense — like the Texans did coming into last week's game against Oakland — JaMarcus & co will make them look like the Steel Curtain.

Oakland's 165 yards of total offense were the second-fewest allowed in Houston franchise history, and the its 45 rushing yards were the fourth-fewest Houston has ever allowed. The cause was a colossal lapse in football fundamentals, with Oakland's O-line surrendering leverage by "blocking too high." "Really, not a missed assignment deal," Tom Cable said. "It's more coming off the ball and attacking the defense." Cable could lead by example, which he may soon be phoning in from jail.

Nobody was more irritated by Oakland's offensive ineptitude than Deadspin reader Mike R., who watched JaMarcus Russell defecate all over his eight-team parlay:

Bet on all 8 early games on the spread, need all eight to win, win pays 90x the wager. My picks:
TB +8.5, 
CHI -9.5, NE +1.5
, IND -10.5
, CLE +6.5
, JAX +3.5 
NYG -8.5

. Well, there's seven. All wins for me. looking good, right?

 No, not so much. My eighth pick? Yeah...
OAK +8.5



WHY? WHY THE FUCK DID I BET ON THE FUCKING RAIDERS TO COVER ON THE ROAD? now, I know Nash Landesman did the same thing, but I don't pay much attention to that. I did a cursory lookover of the matchup and thought: "Wow. The Texans defence really fucking sucks. Especially the run defence and even though Jamarcus Russell is a lazy piece of pick-throwing shit, the Raiders can run a little, right? Even though their by far the worst-run franchise in football and maybe the universe, they're only playing the fucking Texans and their Glass Joe of a quarterback, right? And they have Richard Seymour now, and he's pretty good right? They can lose by a touchdown or so and I'm in the clear, right?"



NO, NO, NO. I was wrong. And I should have known better. Watching the rest of the games shape up in my favour I was reduced to yelling at the Texans-Raiders gamecast on my computer and then yelling at my poor hungover girlfriend when she kept asking me what was wrong as the Raiders literally fumbled away any chance of putting any amount of points on the board. Oh, and swearing. I did a lot of swearing. As well as wanting to slam my head in a heavy door repeatedly for talking myself into taking the Raiders to cover ON THE ROAD.



I will not ever again bet on the Raiders, under any circumstance, ever (at least this year.). They will not cover. They will not score touchdowns, let alone only lose by one of them on the road. Jamarcus Russell will continue to have a quarterback rating strikingly similar to the one that he would have if he sailed every ball 12 yards over somebody's head. Which he does enough of as it is.



To summarize: Don't fucking bet on the Raiders. Fuck the Raiders. Fuck their illiterate, unkept fans. Fuck the city of Oakland. Fuck their fucking fat bastard pice of shit bust of a quarterback. Fuck their jaw-breaking coach. And especially, fuck their fucking demon spector of a fucking owner. They should be fucking contracted.

And now, I'll just bet twice as heavily against them next week. As far as I'm concerned, Al Davis owes me 900 bucks. Fucking undead motherfuck.

Unfortunately for Mike, oddsmakers are now setting inflated spreads to counter blind betting against teams like the Raiders, who are 15.5 point underdogs this week against the Giants. It's just like the New England effect of 2007, only the reverse: "In many cases, we're looking to post lines that get two-way action," one oddsmaker told Pro Football Weekly. "But that's a myth, because in many cases we can't get enough action on the struggling teams. We're probably going to elevate those lines more quickly than usual, as money comes in against those teams." Hence, we're suddenly seeing some of the year's biggest lines: (Bucs +14.5 at Eagles; Steelers -12 at Lions; Raiders +15.5 at Giants). He adds that the smart money is coming in on the winless Chiefs (+8.5) and Bucs (+14.5) — two teams that, unlike the Raiders, have flashed some potential in their haplessness.

Handicap Zone

My picks are underlined.

Colts -3.5 at Titans
For a team with the league's last-ranked pass defense (which just got lit up by David Garrard, no less), the Titans are getting surprisingly few points against Peyton Manning. Jeff Fisher will get his team together eventually, but it won't happen this week, even with Cortland Finnegan hobbling back into action.

Falcons +2.5 at 49ers:
While he digested Kyle Boller for lunch, Patrick Willis was crowned the second coming of Ray Lewis following San Francisco's 35-0 victory over the Rams. Why not? No. 52's defense generated more than enough scoring to make up for the absence of Frank Gore. This week, however, San Fran will have trouble keeping up with the Falcons' offense. And unlike Kyle Boller, Matt Ryan has never lost back-to-back games in his career.

Jets-1.5 at Dolphins
If the return of Calvin Pace staggers the Dolphins, Braylon Edwards will provide the knockout punch — just ask LeBron's friend.

Bad Beats: Readers Share Their Tales Of Woe

I put in a few bets on 9 am west coast games over this past weekend. No huge, get-my-legs-broken amounts, but it's still money. My money. Anyway, one of those bets was Ball St. +5. Let's pick it up with Ball St. leading 16-14 after three quarters. I was feeling ok about things. I really shouldn't have been....

Ball St. scores a TD to make it 22-14 with 8:54 left. (sweet!)
Toledo scores a TD +2 to make it 22-22 with 6:16 left. (dang!)
Toledo scores a TD to make it 29-22 with 3:45 left. (fuck.)
Ball St scores a TD +2 to make it 30-29 with 0:42 left. (really?!?! That's fucking awesome.)
Toledo scores a TD +2 to make it 37-30 with 0:27 left.

Toledo could have missed the two pointer, still won the game, and I get a push which really just adds a level of shittiness to this whole thing. I was checking the score on my phone on a way to a wedding so that last page refresh I did, just to make sure it went final (when I thought I was in the clear), was brutal. Thanks for giving me a space to whine. Did I learn anything from this? Nope. Other than Ball St and Toledo are probably attended by assholes who don't care about me. (Sean)

In my sophomore year of college in 2005 I was making a good amount of money playing online poker. The site I played poker on also had sports betting, and I inevitably began making some side bets. I was attending the University of Michigan and a buddy of mine worked closely with the football team in a capacity where he actually would spend a lot of time watching the opposing team's game tape. A week or so into the season I told him that if he ever came to the conclusion that Michigan COULD NOT possibly lose its upcoming game that he should tell me, so that I could subsequently bet on the game.

Well a day or two before the Minnesota game (played at home) my friend said that Minnesota looked horrible and that he was sure Michigan would win. Michigan had beaten Minnesota 16 straight times. So I took a look at the money line and Michigan was favored by something like -480. I couldn't make much money betting a few hundred on them so I decided to put $1000 on Michigan to win. This would pay out (I can't remember exactly) close to $230.

Michigan's offense wasn't as explosive as it was purported to be, and unfortunately for me, Minnesota wasn't that bad. With a little over a minute to go Minnesota is on its 25 yard line and lookin at a 3rd and 10. I'm thinkin that Breaston might be able to get something going on his upcoming punt return and maybe we'll get a last second field goal, but in all likelihood we'll just win this thing in overtime because we're the better team. Well guess what, how bout none of that is going to happen because Gary Russel takes the next hand off and runs down the side line all the way to the 14 yard line. Minnesota kicked a little chip shot field goal with a few seconds left and won. What killed me was that Minnesota was simply trying to kill the clock and somehow ended up with a 61 yard run and luckily stumbled into the win. It was a very depressing walk home.

I also lost three thousand dollars later that month betting on virtual horse racing, but it was hands down the most fun I've ever had gambling and was quite a wild ride (at one point I was up 2k). Nothing gets the juices flowing like sitting down with your laptop and watching your fake horse win a fake race by the slimmest of margins. (Adam T.)

Share your bad beat with the world. E-mail us at tips@deadspin.com. Subject: Bad beats.

Outlandish Prop Bet Of The Week: Are We Tackier Than Dubai? Edition

Via Paddy Power: "First country to name a main road 'Michael Jackson Street' after June 30th 2009"

USA 11/10
Canada 8/1
Germany 14/1
Dubai 4/1
France 8/1
Spain 14/1
Australia 6/1
Scotland 10/1
Brazil 16/1
England 6/1
India 10/1
Japan 18/1
Rep. of Ireland 8/1
Northern Ireland 12/1
Argentina 20/1

Handicap Zone

It's hot-seat week in the NFL, and a loss could doom any number of coaches, whether they cover the spread or not. For the rest of us, here's your guide to a profitable week 4. (My picks are underlined.)

Giants -9 at Chiefs:
A Giant blowout is just too obvious an outcome here. Even Peter King, who openly condemns gambling, thinks this line is ridiculously light. Remember, at any moment the Giants can play down to the level of their opponent (around this time last year, the Giants were cruising to a 5-0 start when they lost a sloppy Monday night game to the Browns). The lesson: No Eli Manning team should ever lay 9 points on the road, especially when Peter King is backing them.

Bengals -6 at Browns:
While it's fashionable right now to hate on Eric Mangini, it's also extremely correct: He's an arrogant, antisocial cheapskate who can't motivate his players. Regardless, when your team is a 6-point home underdog to the Bengals, you've either hit rock- bottom or the Bengals are actually improved (this year it's both). Cris Collinsworth observed on this week's Inside the NFL that, unlike the girls he's conquered, the Bengal's defense was finally willing to "hit back " against the Steelers last Sunday, thanks to the relentless play of Rey Maualuga and Roy Williams. Collinsworth also began a promising anecdote with "Boomer Esiason sent some girls over to my hotel room..." but then quickly cut himself off when Warren Sapp started cracking up.

Jets +7 at Saints:
This week's best game may also be the hardest to handicap: Brees & Co against the Jets' shut-down secondary (minus injured DBs Lito Shepard and Donald Strickland). "With all those DBs on the [injury] report, you would think I would feel nervous, but we're only playing New Orleans," Rex Ryan Told the Daily News. Who knew Rex was so cheeky? Still, sarcasm will not cover Lance Moore. Oh, and Gregg Williams has the Saints playing some aggressive defense now, too.

Seahawks +10.5 at Colts:
For a banged-up defense that just lost Dwight Freeney, the Colts are giving a ton of points to a respectable Seattle club. Last Sunday night, the Cardinals wrote the formula for getting embarrassed by Indy: Drop back 52 times, abandon the run and invite their freakish defensive ends to tee off on your immobile Quarterback. Even Jim Mora, who gets his rocks off bashing kickers, knows better than come with that junk. Plus, Seneca Wallace is not the statue Kurt Warner is, and Seattle can actually run the ball this year behind a refreshed "Orange" Julius Jones, averaging 5 yards per carry.

Packers +3.5 at Vikings:
Seemingly every time these two teams play, the home team is favored by about a field goal. But the Packer's strengths—drop back passing and pass defense—won't play well this time in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 12 times this year, and that number figures to increase with Jared Allen and the Williams Sisters flying around the turf. Even scarier, Chad Clifton has missed practice all week, so interior guard Daryn Colledge may have to block Jared Allen...And there's some subplot here, too. Whatever it is, I'm sure Drew has it covered.

Dolphins +1 at Bills:
Dick Jauron, the Vegas favorite to be the first head coach fired, has been shafted by some bad luck: His secondary has been depleted by an unlikely combination of burglary, vandalism and injury. And suddenly, with Whitner, McKelvin and Scott sitting out, Terrance McGee is the last man standing in the Bills' secondary. McGee was torched by Ted Ginn for 175 yards in his last game against the Dolphins. This time Chad Henne will be throwing the football, meaning God knows what. Also, Marshawn Lynch returns from his gun suspension and is reportedly ready to resume "Beast Mode." All those variables make this game completely unbettable.

Raiders +9 at Texans:
Another loss to the Raiders could spell the end for Gary Kubiak. The Texans came into their last game against Oakland touchdown favorites, and got whipped 27-13. Nnamdi Asomugha held Andre Johnson to 19 yards on 2 catches. Not much has changed since that game in December, only now Steve Slaton is useless, the Texans are dead last against the run and the Raiders finally have Darren McFadden at full health to ram it down their throats. As long as their perpetulally-worsening QB's responsibilities are kept to a minimum, the Raiders should be able to chew enough clock to keep this one close...If they can stop Kevin Walter.

Ravens +1 at Patriots:
Speaking of dynamic whites, Wes Welker is back in town. Welker has missed the last two weeks with a knee injury and will be a game-changer if he's 100%. His stand-in, the possibly Jewish Julian Edleman has done a good job impersonating a possession receiver, but Brady's true white knight is Welker; nobody is better at bailing Brady out of those maddening camouflaged blitzes—which Baltimore will likely bring on Sunday. Logic points to the Ravens winning, but this could be one of those rare games best enjoyed without gambling.

Chargers +6.5 at Steelers:
There's a growing sense of panic in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers haven't covered a spread since—waddaya know— last year's divisional playoff against San Diego. The two teams have shared some historic gambling moments, all of them ending in Steeler victories. But with Troy Polamalu now out of the picture, San Diego is finally poised to take revenge by exploiting Pittsburgh's 15th ranked pass defense—if they can overcome a bucket of injuries and Norv Turner.

Cowboys -3 at Broncos:
The Broncos are frauds, despite Josh McDaniels riding a cushy schedule to early success. Their fraudulent run defense will finally be exposed this week when the Cowboys' big O-line wears them down, Marion Barber's health notwithstanding.

Rams +10 at 49ers:
Frank Gore's out, Kyle Boller's in! No wonder this game is tied with Bucs/Redskins for lowest point total of week (37) and most unwatchable game of all time.

Bad Beats: Readers Share Their Tales Of Woe

I can give my 2 worst bad beats, and they are both doozies.

1) In 2006, I'm playing a 4 or 5 team teaser (can't remember at this point). My first game up is Michigan St. vs Northwestern. I've got State (I think like pick 'em or -1). Northwestern goes up 35-3, and I figure I'm screwed. State then goes on to pull off the biggest comeback in the history of college football to get the win by 3. I win the other games, and am left with Miami Fl. vs Duke, and I've got Miami like -9 or -10 (this is when they stunk, but its Duke, right?). Miami is up by 6 with about 5 seconds to go, and Duke is on the 5 yard line going for a touchdown. Only way I win is a pick 6. Sure enough, Duke throws a quick out, Miami picks it off, and the corner starts running for the end zone with nobody in front of him. I jump off the couch and start screaming and dancing. How cold this be happening? I mean, nobody actually wins with these kind of great stories! Then, at about the 40 yard line, he starts screwing around with his
teammate, and inexplicably FALLS DOWN. Game over. I lose. I have fucking hated Miami since I was a kid, and this just shows you should never fucking bet on a team you hate, because having to root for them will screw you.

2) Just to show what a complete degenerate loser I am, last march madness I had a 2 team parlay, and after winning game 1 my 2nd game was a CIT (one of those ridiculous post season tourneys that's below the NIT). I had Oakland University on the money line to beat Bradley. The game wasn't on TV, so I was reduced to watching the gamecast on ESPN.com and watching the refresh on the play-by-play. Oakland is up 2 after a ball goes out of bounds, and the refresh says the clock goes to zero. I assume I have won and shut the laptop off. Then next morning, I'm watching the AM Sportscenter, and see that with like .4 seconds left, Bradley hit a 70+ foot shot at the buzzer to win by 1. I actually got beat on a low-level-only-degenerate-addicts-would-bet game on a full court shot. There is no way a single person in the entire world won any money on that shot, but I lost. Gambling sucks.

By the way, I kicked ass today with U of Minnesota, Boise St., and Middle Tennessee St. And lost on Miami again vs Va Tech. Obviously, I learn my lessons well. (Ed)

I am willing to venture a guess that this is the only letter you will get from a guy that was hoping for a push.

1995, I am a freshman and living in the dorms. Duke-North Carolina that night, and about ten guys on my floor and I are ready to take the Heels over a totally undermanned Duke team—in all, we had about 600 on the game. I had 75 of my own hard-earned (and by that I mean I opened up the envelope that had my student loan check) cash on the game. Not a lot of money now, but to an 18 year old, thats like betting your first born.

Carolina is laying 3 points. It was a lock! However, Duke did not get the memo. Its a fantastic game throughout, back and forth. The game goes into overtime.

Carolina is up 3 with about 3 seconds left in OT, and Serge Zwikker gets fouled. Two shots. This fuckstick misses both, so at this point, my friends and I are pissed that we arent going to end up covering, but at least we arent losing.....

After a timeout, Jeff fucking Capel gets the inbounds pass and heaves a shot from half-court.......and drains it. Double overtime.

Ok, so we're not dead yet. Carolina rises above the surge that the Capel shot gave the Devils and takes a 4-point lead with about 30 seconds left. We're just barely hanging on to a cover, and that goes away when the Blue Devils score. Carolina goes back downcourt, Jeff McInnis (I think) gets fouled, but he misses TWO MORE FREE THROWS THAT WOULD HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD. So we are now cheering for Duke to score so we can get a 3rd OT.

Of course, now that we are cheering for Duke, the probable rapists miss their chance to tie and send the game into triple OT. Carolina wins by 2. I lose by 1.

I have not bet a college basketball game since. I stick to football (because its so easy to handicap!) (blogsarefun)

After my first semester in college, I had $150 leftover, which put me at a crossroads of sorts. I had to decide whether to hold on to the money or spend it.

OR I could gamble with it and turn it into an easy $300.

It was a no-brainer for me. I looked at the lines for that week's games and saw that New Orleans was a 1.5-point underdog in Jacksonville. I specifically remember thinking "Hey, New Orleans needs to win, and Jacksonville has Byron Leftwich. That's easy." On top of that, anytime you can GET points for betting on Aaron Brooks, you should take it, right? Just before I placed the bet, though, I had an epiphany.

Do I really think the Saints could lose by a single point? How often does that happen? The 1.5 points was essentially a straight-up bet, so I may as well get better odds and place the optimal bet. I'm still not sure what I was thinking. I'm pretty sure the B+ I got in Economics went to my head. Anyway…

I don't remember much of the game except that I was watching it with my father. I didn't tell him I put $150 on this game, which should have tipped me off that it was a stupid bet. I didn't want him knowing because I knew he would say two things.

1. You put $150 on a sporting event!?

2. You bet on the Saints!? You're an idiot, just like your mother.

But this is a game that almost everyone remembers. The Saints, down 20-13, pulled off one of those hook-and-ladder plays at the end of the 4th quarter. I'll never forget jumping up and down as the play was going on, and I went to my knees when Jerome Pathon had daylight into the endzone.

20-20!

Not so fast. I'm already praying for a favorable coin toss when my dad says, "They gotta make this extra point. It's the Saints, for crying out loud. They would miss this." Now, I'm not a violent person, but I had visions of beating him with a stoker at that moment.

Sure enough, John Carney shanked the extra point. It was such a bad kick that I know it was an accident because you can't try to kick a ball that poorly.

20-19.

Again, I fell to my knees, this time because I realized that I put $150 on the fuckin' Saints. Of all the hacks on that team that could have choked, Aaron Brooks, Jim Haslett, Donte' Stallworth, Tebucky Jones, even Johnathan "where's the press box buffet?" Sullivan, the kicker did me in. On an extra point.

The worst part was that I could have gotten the Saints with the 1.5 and won my bet. I'd be sitting on an extra $150, which as a freshmen in college would have gotten me about 1,000 Keystone Lights, a necessity when you're scraping the bottom of the barrel trying to get laid in Upstate New York. Instead, I was broke and decided it would be a good idea to get pulled over the following week for speeding. I'd say I was racially profiled, but I'm white and was in Texas. And I was going 88 in a 55. That was a fun $300 ticket. (DirkToberFest)

While perusing the forums of a sports gambling community site, I found this gem posted by an unlucky bastard. God bless this pour man's soul, Brett Favre truly is the devil:

Wager details for ticket number 13808178-1:

Wager Type:Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status: Loss
Risk / To Win Amount: 200.00 / 5,608.00 (nul) Accepted 9/27/2009 11:59 AM - EST
Lost: 200.00

Item #1
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 9/27/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+175

* Event Notes:

NFL Week 3 - Regular Season

Item #2
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Win
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
Detroit Lions 9/27/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+220

* Event Notes:

NFL Week 3 - Regular Season

Item #3
Wager Type: Money Line
Outcome: Loss
Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Selection:
San Francisco 49ers 9/27/2009 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+230

* Event Notes:

NFL Week 3 - Regular Season (Jonathan)

Share your bad beat with the world. E-mail us at tips@deadspin.com. Subject: Bad beats.

Sissy Prop Bet Of The Week: New Fella, Ella, Ella Edition

Via BetUS:

"JT and Rihanna to Make Relationship Public"
Yes before Oct 31st: Even
No not before Oct 31st: -140

"When the Relationship Ends, Who Dumps Who"
JT dumps Rihanna: -300
Rihanna dumps JT: +120
Neither they get married: +500

"Which Stars Next Album Sells More Copies"
Justin Timberlake: -140
Rihanna: Even

But here are the teams that I predict will win, today:

VT, Michigan State, Clemson, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Syracuse, Marshall, Tulane, Ball State (buck up, Dave!), Purdue, Iowa, Kentucky, Miami (OH!), Temple, Kansas State, LSU, Illinois, Stanford, Washington, Florida State, Wake Forest, Central Michigan, UCF, Navy, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, UNLV, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Rice, Tennessee, Harvard, University of Phoenix, Reed College, London School of Economics, Police Academy, USC, Huxley College, and National American University.

All of them will win by 6 points. Now hurry up and gamble!

We're launching a new segment called "Bad Beats," where people share their most agonizing gambling moments with readers and commenters who can hopefully make light of their debilitating defeat.

So if you're snake-bitten by a bizarre twist of fate, or simply lose the mortgage to crippling addiction, sending your life spiraling into hell, we want to hear about it.

Think of it like group therapy.

Subject: "Bad Beats." The segment will most likely run on Tuesdays.

Delaware was hoping to take advantage of a grandfather clause in a 1992 federal law that banned sports gambling in the United State. Four states—Nevada, Montana, Oregon, and Delaware—were exempted because they had previously (or currently) allowed gambling. Delaware ran a football-only, multi-game parlay system in 1976, but wanted to institute single-game betting on every sport this year. The NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and NCAA all argued that if Delaware wanted to get back into the business, they could only use the old parlay system and couldn't expand to other sports.

The appeals judges agreed with them, even though one helpfully pointed out that it's hard to argue that the integrity of sport is in jeopardy when anchors on the NFL's own radio network routinely give gambling advice to listeners. But that's just for fun, I guess. Because if the state were allowed to organize public gambling, then the outcome of games could be manipulated by unscrupulous gangsters! Therefore, only unscrupulous gangsters should organize gambling.

This may eventually go to the Supreme Court, but it looks like there's no way you're betting on football games in Dover this year.

Appeals court blocks Delaware betting [USA Today]
Ohio Lottery signs up two NFL teams for branded games [Lottery News]

Delaware Governor Jack Markell estimates that sports betting will bring in $55 million this year, or roughly 55 million times the revenue of a single I-AA football playoff game. So as he points out, the NCAA's punitive decision to ban all championship events from the state only hurts college athletes—the people the NCAA is allegedly protecting. I guess they'll just go on using their bookies like they do now.

There's still a chance that the sports leagues could win the lawsuit against the state (this week's ruling only denied an emergency injunction), but that seems unlikely. Looking at the ruling, Judge Gregory M. Sleet, chief of U.S. District Court in Delaware, seems perfectly aware of the rank hypocrisy at work here. Gambling is good for sports. (Financially, anyway.) Everyone knows it. Betting lines sit next to box scores in newspapers. Teams take advertising dollars from casinos. Heck, some team owners even have their own casinos. No one, anywhere in America has trouble finding someone to take a bet on a game if they want to. Wagering on the outcome is practically the only reason that most sports exist.

The world will survive Delaware's gambling jones and more and more states will try to follow suit, because it's the only way anyone can make money in this terrible economy. Look for New Jersey, home of Atlantic City and shore trash, to be the next state to try and overturn the federal sports gambling law. I would bet you anything.

NCAA championship ban affects states with betting [Houston Chronicle]
Delaware sports betting moves ahead [Philadelphia Inquirer]
Judge sets date for Delaware betting trial [ESPN]