<![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace? - Deadspin Comments]]> http://cache.gawker.com/assets/base/img/thumbs140x140/deadspin.com.png <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace? - Deadspin Comments]]> http://deadspin.com Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:25:25 EDT Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:25:25 EDT http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4890756 @Basketbawful: Believe me, I know. My day job is as a statistician.

Totally agree about the misuse of statistics. At the risk of sounding cliched, if you know they can be misused, don't let yourself become just another statistic.

And uh, keep on truckin.

NovakAintNoJokovic

]]> 11:372277:c4890756 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:25:25 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4886189 @NovakAintNoJokovic: "However, that's not the numbers lying. That's the reader only looking at one number, and not looking at it in context."

True enough. You know what they say: Figures lie and liars figure. (Okay, "they" are my grandparents, but still.) The sad part of all the new advanced basketball statistics is that many people are using them the same way they used the old-school stats: Just throwing them out there and saying, "See? Point proven."

Every number is a puzzle piece, but you've got to put them together.

Basketbawful

]]> 11:372277:c4886189 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 17:02:37 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4884642 @Basketbawful: I hope you're not one of them
Oh no, I might be one of those people. In the interest of full disclosure, yes I am a numbers guy, without question. That said, I rarely believe one number can tell the entire story.

In this case, you're right that Denver's DefEff might not really reflect their defensive prowess. Their defensive shooting % is middle-of-the-road and the % of offensive rebounds they allow is deplorable. So what makes their DefEff in the top third of the league? Well, they do force a lot of turnovers (16.8/100 poss, good for 5th in the league), and they're pretty stingy about sending teams to the foul line (only about 1 FTA for every 5 FGA, good for 4th fewest). Sounds like they either force a turnover or give the opponent an easy look at the basket (or two or three), right?

So I think your assessment on how teams can "carve the Nuggets up" is right, and the numbers I mentioned do bear that out. Basically, their defensive is pretty similar to their offense: good when it's being opportunistic and forcing the tempo, not so good when they settle into the half-court game.

However, that's not the numbers lying. That's the reader only looking at one number, and not looking at it in context.


NovakAintNoJokovic

]]> 11:372277:c4884642 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 16:14:29 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4881232 @NovakAintNoJokovic: Here's my problem with the Denver defense. They're at their best when forcing turnovers and tricking teams into playing at their pace. However, if their opponent takes care of the ball and just waits for an open shot to develop, they can get it at will. Denver's opponents have shot 60 percent in three of the Nuggets' last four losses (which excludes the previously mentioned 4-game stretch, since Utah did it against them on March 8). And these aren't isolated incidents. Last month (February 22 to be exact), the Chicago Bulls - who are one of the worst scoring/shooting teams in the league - scored 135 points on 57 percent shooting against the Nuggets. And I could give you similar examples of crazy-high shooting percentages achieved by opposing teams this season if it came to it. So while the numbers my not "lie" exactly, they can be deceiving, particularly since many people (and I hope you're not one of them) want to wave the Defensive Efficiency Flag as Final Proof that Denver has a top 'o the league D. Well, I'm not convinced, and I'm not convinced because when teams show patience and discipline, they carve the Nuggets up. And this isn't just a numbers game. I've watched Denver play, and many times. I'm just not convinced that they're field goal defense would be even adequate against quality teams if they made the playoffs.

But here's hoping they do get in, if for no other reason than they'll have a chance to prove me wrong.

Basketbawful

]]> 11:372277:c4881232 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 14:15:59 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4878756 PS -

/shits pants

/dick joke

/dick joke involving someone shitting their pants

NovakAintNoJokovic

]]> 11:372277:c4878756 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:55:16 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4878745 Matt - I've had a bone to pick with you sir, for 2 days now, but kept forgetting to mention it because I was swept away by your fine Closers (kudos to you for that). But I finally wrote myself a little note to remember.

Your Worst Of The Night shtick is pretty good too, except for this one. Can a bad 4-game stretch by the Nuggets really convince you "that numbers can lie"? Or perhaps you don't understand what those numbers really mean? Just because Denver plays at a torrid pace doesn't mean they can't play defense. That's where the whole "per 100 possessions" comes into play.

Look at the other side of the argument. New Orleans, Dallas, and Detroit play at some of the slowest paces in the league, but that doesn't mean they don't know how to score, does it? Would you argue that the Hornets are having trouble scoring (answer: no)? One might counter by saying "But in 3 games between Jan 30th and Feb 4th they lost by a combined 34 points to Golden State, Sacramento, and Utah." Is that a valid argument? Doubtful.

On another note, where can I buy my "Chicago Fourth Quarter Collapses" jersey? I can't find them on sale anywhere!

NovakAintNoJokovic

]]> 11:372277:c4878745 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:54:48 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4878391 @Lunatic Fringe: yeah but unfortunately fewer pictures of scantily clad women.

HugsFromHarold

]]> 11:372277:c4878391 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:43:43 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4878229 I just want to point out that daily comic strip version Spiderman (the only one I'm familiar with) is a loser.
[joshreads.com]


new_commentator

]]> 11:372277:c4878229 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:38:53 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4877725 Nice. You get two No-Prizes ... one for the post, and one for the Puma reference. Now, when does Kraven the Hunter appear?

Rick Chandler

]]> 11:372277:c4877725 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:20:43 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4876918 'Nuff said.

Tuffy

]]> 11:372277:c4876918 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:51:18 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4876641 Substitute "Hillary Clinton" for "J. Jonah Jameson" and "Barack Obama" for "Spider-Man".

/wonkette refugee

gjdodger

]]> 11:372277:c4876641 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:39:14 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875949 @BigTenObsession: Let's leave Ghostface out of this.

muggsybogues

]]> 11:372277:c4875949 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:13:16 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875804 @Dead Air ummm Dead Air: Ugh. That storyline does not exist.

DennyCrane

]]> 11:372277:c4875804 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:07:44 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875735 @Secret Identity:

Well, obviously. No one thought you were seriously making that pick.

BigTenObsession

]]> 11:372277:c4875735 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:05:12 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875653 @BigTenObsession: @Dead Air ummm Dead Air:

To be clearer:

Comic book MJ > comic book Gwen

Bryce Dallas Howard Gwen >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kirsten Dunst MJ

Secret Identity

]]> 11:372277:c4875653 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:01:05 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875636 @DeepFriar:

what are you, some sort of Venom-lover? I bet you enjoyed the few moments when Tony Stark wasn't Iron Man also.

Freak.

BigTenObsession

]]> 11:372277:c4875636 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:00:32 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875522 @Secret Identity: Didn't stop Norman Osborn.

Also, Everything > One More Day

Dead Air ummm Dead Air

]]> 11:372277:c4875522 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:55:33 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875519 @MattinglysSideburns: +1. I still can't believe the scariest Neo-Nazi in television history is also J. Jonah Jameson and Juno's daddy.

Wyshynski

]]> 11:372277:c4875519 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:55:30 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875447 @BigTenObsession:

Sure, if you like having sex with dead people.

Secret Identity

]]> 11:372277:c4875447 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:51:53 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875391 @BigTenObsession: black costume > red/blue costume > Pacers home jersey
got a problem with that?


DeepFriar

]]> 11:372277:c4875391 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:49:46 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875344 @Triple B: Pryz had 26 two games ago against the Clips.

The Fan’s Attic

]]> 11:372277:c4875344 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:47:21 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875238 @Gourmet Spud:

Gwen Stacey >>>>>>>>>>> Mary Jane.

Yeah, I said it. What of it?

BigTenObsession

]]> 11:372277:c4875238 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:41:58 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875214 @Triple B:

The last time that happened was probably against Northwestern, or maybe the Knicks.

BigTenObsession

]]> 11:372277:c4875214 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:41:11 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875213 Until Matt McHale gets a buzz cut and begins the Daily Bugawful podcast, mmm.

AppFan

]]> 11:372277:c4875213 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:41:00 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875202 I thought the post was being written by Jenna Jameson.

Damn.

roland_t_flakfizer

]]> 11:372277:c4875202 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:40:38 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875161 @HugsFromHarold:

Like The Post, but with facts & truth.

Lunatic Fringe

]]> 11:372277:c4875161 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:38:59 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875025 @Hit Bull Win Steak: Great Ceasar's Ghost! That's blasphemy!

McCroskey

]]> 11:372277:c4875025 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:32:51 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4875018 Ugh, Spiderman is far too wimpy to be a superhero.

The Gizmo from Pismo

]]> 11:372277:c4875018 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:32:36 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874956 Bugle Bucks > Schrute Bucks ?

MrMoustache

]]> 11:372277:c4874956 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:29:12 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874923 Sadly it reads like envision the New York Post newsroom would be like.

HugsFromHarold

]]> 11:372277:c4874923 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:27:28 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874917 The real libel here is that the Wiz/Blazers score was actually 102-82.

Paper Cut

]]> 11:372277:c4874917 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:27:10 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874847 C'mon now, everybody knows the Green Lantern (who currently plays for the Celtics) could open up a can of Raid on Spider-man.

Brazil Thrill

]]> 11:372277:c4874847 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:23:21 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874823 "Because he's really an egomaniac, a neurotic trouble-maker flaunting his power before the ordinary citizens whom he despises!"

Mark Cuban?

Chief Wahoo

]]> 11:372277:c4874823 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:22:01 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874812 Joel Pryzbilla is the Vanilla Gorilla but I can't call Allen Iverson a "tough little monkey?"
/Billy Packer

GrinNBarrette

]]> 11:372277:c4874812 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:21:10 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874737 Perry White > J. Jonah Jameison

yeah I said it....

Hit Bull Win Steak

]]> 11:372277:c4874737 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:17:26 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874712 Can tomorrow's Closer be written by Vern Schillinger?

MattinglysSideburns

]]> 11:372277:c4874712 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:16:14 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874710 I heard a big reason for the Pacers' loss was that David Harrison was "out" with "Mary Jane."

/wink

Gourmet Spud

]]> 11:372277:c4874710 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:16:09 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874695 Heat vs. Knicks tonight! I think the winner gets the NIT champ in their new +1 system.

Camp Tiger Claw

]]> 11:372277:c4874695 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:15:45 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874671 Ahhhhhhh, remember when you could smoke a cigar in your office?

Schluby

]]> 11:372277:c4874671 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:14:29 EDT <![CDATA[The NBA Closer: Threat Or Menace?]]> http://deadspin.com/372277/the-nba-closer-threat-or-menace#c4874632 17 boards for Przybilla??

/shits pants

Triple B

]]> 11:372277:c4874632 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:12:11 EDT