We made it. Week 17. It’s here despite, you know, everything going on.
Did I think we’d make it this far? I guess. Was an NFL season worth it? Probably not.
It was fun and entertaining and gave us some respite from our actual Sunday Scaries. And there is still one week left. With my record now sliding to an embarrassing 28-34, I’m playing with house money.
Before I get to my counterintuitive picks. Here are the bets to avoid today.
2 / 7
Ten points? To the Browns? The Browns, who just lost to the Jets? The Browns, who’ve given us bad beats all year? The Browns, who just yesterday closed their facility for the third time in four days due to COVID? The 10-5 Browns versus the 12-3 Steelers?
10 is a scary number, but it makes sense when you learn that Mason Rudolph is starting for Pittsburgh. With a move like that, the Steelers are planning to lose. They’ve already won their division and they’ll host a playoff game. Cleveland, however, is the No. 7 seed in the AFC and trying to hang on. They can clinch a playoff spot with a win.
But how much will they win by? Well, Jarvis Landry and other receivers are off the COVID list. Maybe Baker Mayfield can run up a score with people to throw to. But maybe not. These are the Browns, after all. That 18-year playoff drought ain’t over yet!
3 / 7
Before Trevor Lawrence becomes the Jaguars starting quarterback, Mike Glennon will have to trot onto the field for one more matchup.
This game doesn’t matter for Jacksonville. It really doesn’t. Florida men and women already flocked to TIAA Bank Field last Sunday to cheer for the Bears and root for the No. 1 pick. They got it, thanks to the Jets’ ineptitude. Now they face a team that HAS to win in order to have a shot at the playoffs. So how much do you like Philip Rivers and the Colts? Will they be winners? Sure. By two touchdowns? Maybe. But I wouldn’t touch the largest spread of Week 17.
4 / 7
Yes, that’s right. The Los Angeles Chargers are favored over the reigning Super Bowl champions and current favorites to win it all in February.
Why? Because Kansas City has already clinched the number one seed, meaning Patrick Mahomes is out and Chad Henne is the new QB1. Good luck with that.
The Chiefs can lose this game if they sit their starters. But have you seen Justin Herbert and the Chargers in the fourth quarter? That team is allergic to winning close ones.
5 / 7
Unless you’re fading NFC East spreads, I don’t know why you would want to bet on any teams in this division.
At 6-9, Washington controls their playoff destiny. Win and they’re in, it’s that simple. But nothing’s ever simple for the Football Team. Last week, they could’ve wrapped up the division but they threw away their chances. And now, with Dwayne Haskins cut, who will get the start? Washington is confident that it’ll be Alex Smith, who suffered a calf strain on Dec. 13. Early this morning, Ian Rappaport reported that the veteran QB is expected to start.
Jalen Hurts is still good but falling back to earth and who knows how Smith will play coming off another injury. I’d stay away from this spread.