College Football Week 7 Betting Picks: Texas, Michigan, Oregon and More

The fall weather is finally rolling in, and to go with our great football weather, we have an elite lineup of college football games this weekend. Some of the best programs in college football will be tested on the road, and I’ll have the picks to help you find the winners.

#1 Ohio State (5-0) -14.5 vs #17 Illinois (5-1)

Total: 49.5

This line is the most trap line of all time. The bookmakers are begging you to bet on the Illini, but don’t fall for the trap. Brett Bielema got his team back on track with a win over USC, but this is still a team that got run off the field against Indiana, albeit on the road.

Matt Patricia’s defense has been dialing up the pressure in recent weeks, and they should take a page out of Indiana’s playbook by adding as much pressure as possible on Luke Altmyer. Also, I don’t see how Illinois stands a chance of slowing down this Ohio State passing attack. I think Ohio State should cover, while still keeping this low scoring.

Pick: u49.5
Lean: Ohio St (-14.5)

#8 Alabama (4-1) -3.5 vs #14 Missouri (5-0)

Total: 51.5

I haven’t wavered in my support of Alabama all season long. Unfortunately, they’re running into the team that’s made me so much money this season. Missouri is going to get its signature win of the season in this one, and they will start to earn respect in the SEC.

Alabama has one of the better pass defenses in the country, but its run defense is still a problem. Ahmad Hardy is going to have a field day against Bama. Hardy is my favorite non-quarterback to win a Heisman, and if the Tigers can get a season-defining win this week, his odds are going to start to plummet. My play of the week is the over in this one, and I’ll also keep Missouri as an official play.

Pick: o51.5 and Missouri (+3.5)

#7 Indiana (5-0) vs #3 Oregon (5-0) -7.5

Total: 55.5

Indiana’s underwhelming offensive performance at Iowa concerns me as they go on the road to Oregon, but 7.5 points feels like far too many for these two teams. Are we potentially overrating Oregon for a close win against a potentially below-average Penn State team, and a blowout win against Oklahoma State, one of the worst power conference programs in the country?

Oregon’s run defense is pretty average, but they showed up in a big way against Penn State, so Indiana will need to establish the run game for Fernando Mendoza to get going through the air. Oregon only gives up 104 pass yards a game, but they haven’t seen a talent similar to Mendoza this year. Also, while at Cal in 2023, Mendoza had one of his worst games of his career at Autzen Stadium. Expect that revenge factor to be on his mind as he’s really developed as a game manager.

Pick: Indiana +7.5

#6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs Texas (3-2) -1.5

Total: 43.5

I have zero faith in Oklahoma without John Mateer. Honestly, even with Mateer, I’m not really sold on this Sooners team in general. I think Texas was caught in a classic look-ahead spot last week against Florida, and I still believe this roster is talented enough to make the playoffs.

The problem with that assertion is that the offense is terrible, and much of it falls on the shoulders of Arch Manning; however, Steve Sarkisian should also bear some of the blame. His play calling has simply been far worse than last season, and maybe that’s due to the limitations he’s dealing with starting Arch. If that’s the case, perhaps it’s time to see what else you have at quarterback on this roster. With that being said, this defense is still elite, and the atmosphere of the Cotton Bowl will be too much for Michael Hawkins Jr., who wasn’t too impressive against a terrible Kent State team.

Pick: u43.5
Lean: Texas -1.5

#15 Michigan (4-1) vs USC (4-1) -2.5

Total: 56.5

Everything in my betting brain is telling me to bet on USC and the over, but my football brain knows that Michigan is simply a better football team. My only concern with Michigan is that Sherrone Moore is a horrible football coach and keeps talking crap about other teams in the conference. Lincoln Riley truly does not like Moore and wants to shove it to him on the football field.

If Moore remembers that Bryce Underwood’s best attribute is his legs, I think Michigan rolls in this one behind the running attack of Underwood and Justice Haynes. However, against Wisconsin in Moore’s first game back as head coach, they only ran it with Underwood 5 times. I’m hoping that was due to Wisconsin being terrible, and they didn’t need to use his athleticism more to win. If not, this bet will come back to bite me.

Pick: Michigan (+2.5)
Lean: o56.6

2025 Record:
Picks: 26-18
Leans: 11-15