The 2014 inductees into the Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced next Wednesday. As of today, 101 sportswriters (of the 600-something eligible) have publicly shared their votes. Projecting from those ballots, four players will make it to Cooperstown, and a fifth will fall just short.

Baseball Think Factory has been constantly updating its HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo, which tallies every ballot made public. It has its flaws, but these large-sample-size polls are never too far off: last year's edition nailed every player's vote to within 10 percent, and correctly predicted that no one would be elected. Here's this year's count as of today.

100 - Maddux
97.0 - Glavine
90.0 - F. Thomas
80.2 - Biggio
72.3 - Piazza
65.3 - Bagwell
62.4 - Jack Morris
56.4 - Raines
44.6 - Bonds
43.6 - Clemens
38.6 - Schilling
34.7 - Mussina
23.8 - Trammell
19.8 - L. Smith
19.8 - E. Martinez
15.8 - McGriff
12.9 - Kent
11.9 - L. Walker
10.9 - McGwire
8.9 - S. Sosa
7.9 - R. Palmeiro
5.0 - Mattingly

It's very important to remember that the 101 ballots counted are self-selected. Usually, that indicates a writer more engaged on the internet, still actively workingβ€”maybe younger than the average BBWAA member. That's a generalization, but comparing past Gizmo exit polls with the actual results have shown a pattern: "Old-school" players like Jack Morris received more actual votes than predicted, because those voting for them weren't publicly revealing their ballots, while PED-linked players like Barry Bonds received fewer votes than predicted, for the opposite reasonβ€”those voting for them were more likely to share their ballots ahead of time.

That would seem to hurt Mike Piazza's chances of making a late push, and indicate that Jack Morris's actual vote total will be closer to the 75-percent cutoff than predicted.


With all the caveats, the above poll would be a fascinating result. It would indicate significant growth in support for Piazza, Bonds, and Clemens from last year, with more modest gains for Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell.

And could Greg Maddux be the first unanimous Hall of Famer? He's perfect through 101 ballots. At the very least, any morons not voting for him have enough sense not to announce it before the fact.


The 2014 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo! [Baseball Think Factory]