Are the Yankees frauds? Will the Angels come down to earth?

Saying “it’s only April” is out, because it’s been May for a few days now. We’re about 15 percent of the way through baseball’s regular season, give or take depending on how many games each team has played, and while that’s not a big sample size, the teams that are in first place now have those wins in the bank.

It’s not impossible for, say, the Red Sox to come back from eight games behind the Yankees and fourth place in the AL East at this early date. At the same time, history is littered with teams that started 10-14, dug themselves an eight-game hole, and then played 18 holes on the first weekend of October.

For any team that’s not off to the first-place start that it left spring training dreaming of, part of the equation now is the competition that they’re going to have to run down. So, how hard are those teams going to be to catch? Let’s take a look.

(Statistics through May 3)

Record: 18-6

Lead: 3.5 games over Blue Jays

You’re never as good as you look during an 11-game (and counting) winning streak, but the Yankees certainly aren’t as bad as the fourth-place outfit that some people (maybe jokingly, maybe not) saw them being after an uninspiring offseason. Anthony Rizzo probably won’t keep up a 61-homer pace, but Aaron Judge is capable of challenging the team record, and more importantly, there are some hitters (Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson, and to a lesser extent, Giancarlo Stanton) who have produced nowhere near expectations – it’s not like the whole lineup is on fire. The strength of the Yankees’ rotation is what’s really stood out, as Luis Severino has arguably been the least effective starter, and if not him Gerrit Cole… and they’re a combined 4-0. The Yankees will slump and look awful at times, and there are three other good teams in this division who will beat up on each other and the Orioles in what should be a really good pennant race, but they’re not going to be easy marks.

Record: 15-9

Lead: 4 games over Guardians

Some people (maybe jokingly, maybe not) saw the Twins as title contenders in March, but really it was never going to take much for anyone to put together a winner in this division, and with a bazillion games against the Tigers and Royals, there’s just a lot of wins there for the taking even if you don’t play great. Of course, you have to actually be healthy, which the White Sox have not been and the Twins so far mostly have… and their hot start has come despite Carlos Correa so far contributing about as much as Trevor Larnach. The pitching staff probably isn’t “rank second in the American League in ERA” good, but it doesn’t have to be when the big acquisition bats finally get rolling. This division might be effectively over by the All-Star break.

Record: 15-10

Lead: 1.5 games over Astros

Same old story, two guys carrying the Angels’ offense, Mike Trout and… Taylor Ward? Who has apparently body-swapped with Shohei Ohtani? Who also hasn’t pitched well this season? And in fact, the Angels’ pitching is generally still as suspect as everyone thought? Joe Maddon loves a magician, and it certainly looks like a lot of smoke and mirrors for the Angels to be sitting atop the West, where the Astros and Mariners are both close, and everyone is going to get to beat up on the A’s and Rangers all summer. It’s going to come down to the series between the top three, and the Angels are already 3-4 against Houston.

Record: 18-8

Lead: 4.5 games over Marlins

It’s the Mets, so you’re always waiting for the other shoe to drop, and the Mets not losing any of their first eight series certainly gives them a “we’ll see what happens when they slump” energy… but they’ve also, while hot, been remarkably consistent – they haven’t won more than three games in a row all year, haven’t swept anyone, and haven’t lost more than back-to-back games. The starting pitching is as advertised, the bullpen is too (for better and for worse), and the lineup… it’s odd to be fifth in slugging but first in runs scored, but there’s also power in the lineup that hasn’t shown itself yet. Calamity always feels like it’s around the corner, sure, but the Mets are legitimately this good.

Record: 16-8

Lead: 2.5 games over Cardinals

Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez excepted, the Brewers have been putrid offensively. Pitching was always going to be the strength this year for Milwaukee, and it certainly has been with a 3.01 staff ERA that ranks third in the National League. So far, the Brewers and Cardinals have played each other to a 2-2 split. It’s a two-team race and should be one all the way to the end, probably with the loser as a wild card. But the Brewers have to like where they are given that they for sure haven’t played their best ball yet.

Record: 15-7

Lead: 0.5 games over Padres

The Dodgers haven’t won a division title since 2020, and haven’t won one in a non-covid year since 2019, and before that you have to go back to 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013… and Freddie Freeman has shown up and not been a free agent bust. The Dodgers have the smallest division lead in the majors, and the stiffest competition with the Padres and Giants, but if the question is whether the early division leaders are for real, you already know the answer with Los Angeles.