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Do Not Fret, Yankees Fans: A.J. Burnett May Have Been A Victim Of Bad Home Run Luck This Year

Sam Miller of the Orange County Register tweeted this last night, and it's kind of amazing. (Ignore his mention of Jered Weaver.) Tonight's scaring-everyone-shitless Yankees starter A.J. Burnett's xFIP (expected Fielding-Independent Pitching) was 3.86 this year. xFIP is on a scale roughly equivalent to ERA, and AJ's figure was better than those of many other starters, including tonight's opponent, Rick Porcello.

And, hey, xFIP is the best available predictor of future ERA, better than current ERA or FIP, through adjusting for home runs. (A few analysts have quibbled with this.) All of which is to say: Don't sleep on the scrappy underdog Yankees and their $16.5-million malcontent starter! Game four's 8:37 p.m. on TBS.


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