As in past years, the excellent folks behind the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker are taking note of every available Hall of Fame ballot—both publicly revealed and privately shared with the site—in an attempt to forecast who will make the cut when the official vote totals are announced tomorrow at 2 p.m. EST.
As of right now, just about 25 percent of the expected total number of ballots have been made public—See the full collection here. Past years' results have spoken well for the Vote Tracker's accuracy, and it predicts these five men will achieve the 75 percent threshold for induction:
- Randy Johnson (named on 98.59 percent of ballots)
- Pedro Martinez (97.89 percent)
- John Smoltz (87.32 percent)
- Craig Biggio (80.99 percent)
- Mike Piazza (78.87 percent)
Those first three, at least, seem to be shoo-ins. The latter two will be iffy, especially because this pool of revealed ballots is self-selected, and trends toward the type of voters less willing to punish players for (even unconfirmed) PED suspicions.
Here are some of the nearer-misses, according to the Vote Tracker:
Tim Raines (68.31 percent)
Jeff Bagwell (66.90 percent)
Curt Schilling (53.52 percent)
Barry Bonds (45.77 percent)
Roger Clemens (45.77 percent)
If those numbers hold, Raines, Bagwell, and Schilling would have seen their support rise significantly from last year. Bonds and Clemens would be up too, though by a more modest amount.
We'll find out at 2 p.m. tomorrow, when the BBWAA website crashes, but someone on Twitter who managed to get in will share a screengrab.