Bettors slightly favor Chiefs despite Joe Burrow's 3-0 record vs. Patrick Mahomes

Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes in his career. He’s been so dominant against Cris Collinsworth’s favorite quarterback that Cincinnati Bengals’ players and fans have started referring to the Chiefs’ home stadium, Arrowhead, as “ Burrowhead.” Despite this success and confidence from Bengals’ players, bettors seem unsure of which way to lean. Early betting trends favored Cincy as the Chiefs opened up as slight favorites. However, as lines have shifted, the favor has swung back toward Kansas City.

According to OddsChecker US, the Chiefs hold an ever-so-slight edge over the Bengals in total bets placed, with 53.5 percent of bettors backing Kansas City. As the Chiefs are one-point favorites, this makes sense. There were only two other games all year involving the Chiefs that had one-point spreads — Week 4 at Tampa Bay and Week 7 at San Francisco. Kansas City went 2-0 in those games, winning by more than one possession in both by a combined score of 85-54. Now, the Chiefs are at home? Yeah, it’s easy to see why bettors like KC.

That said, I’m shocked more bets aren’t going in favor of the Bengals. This is the same team that just dominated Buffalo on the road. They were so good in that game that happened less than a week ago, might I add, that Buffalo’s star wideout Stefon Diggs got upset with quarterback Josh Allen. That was a happy, loving relationship. It’s not been tested. The waters are rough in West New York, because of how badly the Bengals embarrassed the Bills. That same team is now an underdog and people want to bet on the team that managed a one-possession victory over the 9-8 Jags? I don’t get it. This math ain’t mathing.

I understand that Andy Reid is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, and we should expect him to come out with an incredible game plan against Cincy, but Bengals’ head coach Zac Taylor proved capable of creating such a game plan as well with that win over Buffalo. While I’m never going to willingly bet against Patrick Mahomes, I’m shocked that they are the favorites, which is ironic considering this is one of the closest games in terms of betting percentages from the entire season.

I think the best course of action is to avoid this game entirely. I guess that’s the best course of action for anybody looking to blindly throw money on either team in this one. For those who’ve done the research and understand lines, perhaps a player prop or first-half moneyline bet could work, but I haven’t done that research, so I wouldn’t feel confident at all in anything. This game is absolutely impossible to predict.