NFL Week 6 Betting Primer: Best Over/Under, Spread, Teaser, and Prop Bets

“Not one, not two... not three, not four....”

Surely, never did we think that iconic LeBron James quote could also be applied to an NFL game that featured a mind-boggling five missed field goals. Five! Of course, that was our over/under (Packers-Bengals Over 50) last week, “losing” by — what else? — a measly field goal and resulted in our first non-winning week.

Over/Unders: 2-1-1

Spreads: 3-1

Teasers: 4-0

Props: 2-2

Overall Record*: 11-4-1, +7.1 units

*Each over/under bet graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Over/Under: 44

Just as important as any numbers or stats that can be dug up is the human side of a game, and that philosophy will not be more on display anywhere else than in Denver, where the Raiders begin anew.

With the emergence of various disgusting old emails costing former head coach Jon Gruden his job this week, the franchise is now turning to Rich Bisaccia in the interim. Whether or not that can save Las Vegas’ season remains to be seen, but in the short term, this could have a profound negative impact on the Silver & Black.

That’s not a diss on Bisaccia, who has been an assistant head coach on every team he’s been a part of since 2008. It’s human nature, though, to maybe struggle a bit.

Derek Carr had formed a close bond with Gruden ever since the latter returned to the Raiders three seasons ago, so much so that in the wake of his firing, the eighth-year QB declared: “I love the man, hate the sin.” Love isn’t only a strong word in relationships, but in pro football as well.

And not only must Carr and his boys navigate through a very treacherous predicament, they have to do it against one of the league’s best defensive units.

The Broncos, as usual, are looking really stingy on defense, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (292.4). In turn, they’re yielding fewer points each week (15.2) than all but one other NFL team. This group has been the driving force in why four of their first five bouts thus far have registered as clear, decisive unders.

As it is, Carr has averaged 226.5 passing yards per game in his 13 outings against the Broncos, his second-lowest output among any opponent he’s faced more than three times. This will be one of the best Bronco defenses he’s stepping onto the gridiron with, being that Denver is shackling quarterbacks to a puny 75.8 passer rating — third-best in the NFL.

So it’d be really difficult to expect some type of strong showing from the Raiders offense. But what about the other side?

Should you even ask? This is a Teddy Bridgewater team, and whenever it’s Teddy time, expect plenty of short passes and check-downs because that’s just his style. In other words, not many big plays.

Watching any Broncos game requires extreme patience as their slow, plodding offense tries to grind out methodical, time-consuming drives that are an under bettor’s best friend. Taking on a respectable Raiders D, expect more of the same. Being a divisional rivalry that usually consists of close matchups, I’m buying a full point on this total to be sure.

Pick: UNDER 45 (-130)

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team

Spread: Chiefs -6.5/WFT +6.5

Just a few weeks ago, I highlighted how lethal Patrick Mahomes can be when he’s coming off a rare loss. Well, here we have another such spot, except this one will be following up what was easily Mahomes’ biggest career regular-season defeat.

That should be making anyone who gambles on football salivate. You don’t think Mahomes has been stewing all week and itching to get back onto the field?

This could be akin to one of your high-school biology dissections. The Chiefs are typically sharp every Sunday no matter what but after a loss, they’re simply out for blood. And the (unfounded) whispers lately that Mahomes isn’t the top QB1 in football anymore are certainly being heard by the former Most Valuable Player, and can only serve to fuel him even more.

Look, the Football Team has a pretty nice defense on paper, composed of some real quality players. But it hasn’t translated to success this year, especially lately in which they surrendered 33.5 points per game the last four weeks. Additionally, only one other team (Indy) has given up more passing TDs than Washington (14).

Not only that, this defense can’t seem to make a stop when it counts most, evidenced by how offenses are converting on 56.2 percent of third downs. Yeah, highly, highly unlikely they survive here.

Kansas City’s D certainly has been nothing to brag about, but when you’re able to lean on Mahomes in this particular situation, well, it doesn’t really matter.

Pick: CHIEFS -6.5 (-120)

HOU/IND U43.5 —> U53.5

Rams -10 —> Rams PK

LAC-BAL O51 —> O41

OK, a slight change from what we’ve been doing with our weekly teasers. Rather than pursuing the usual four-team, 13-point variety for Week 6, we’re knocking off a game, but with three less points, too.

That’s perfectly fine as it concerns the Rams in their road date against the harmless G-Men. Normally, that adjective may not apply but this current iteration of the Giants is far from healthy, missing their two best skill-position players (Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay). Furthermore, Daniel Jones is trying to return from a concussion. Yeah, needing just a straight-up ‘W,’ we’ll gladly grab LA.

Then we have a couple of totals. From the 1 p.m. slate, an under involving the albatross known as the Davis Mills-led Texans offense is always appetizing. True, the rookie signal-caller is coming off by far his best performance as a pro but I don’t foresee anything close to that on the road in a Indy versus a D in rebound mode

And lastly, to finish things off, let’s attach the over from what very well could be the most exciting game on the entire slate. It’s Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson facing off; do I really need to say anything else?

Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 15.5 Rush Attempts

A Colts rushing prop led to a loss in the column last week, specifically the yards total for quarterback Carson Wentz, but we’re taking a more traditional one here.

This one hinges on talented second-year back Jonathan Taylor, who has established himself as one of the select few players at his position capable of assuming a full workload. Though he also shares some touches with two other tailbacks, that hasn’t stopped the former Wisconsin Badger from racking up totes.

Through five ballgames, Taylor is averaging 14.6 carries, but in the process, he’s been handed the rock at least 15 times in four of the five. If ever there was a time for him to comfortably top that amount, it’s this week’s division bout against the downtrodden Texans, which figures to contain the most favorable game script with the Colts ahead and focused on eating up clock.

Enter Taylor.

Pick: OVER 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130)