Sunday Scaries: The Week 11 bets to avoid

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Illustration: Eric Barrow

I regret to inform you that the Jacksonville Jaguars did not make the cut for this week’s Sunday Scaries. Of course they’re not winning games, but they’re covering. So they seem… reliable?

That’s not a quality that gives you anxiety.

Without the Jaguars, there are still plenty of bets to avoid in week 11.

Here’s who I don’t like this week.

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Eagles at Browns (-2.5)

Eagles at Browns (-2.5)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 11 bets to avoid
Illustration: (Getty Images)

The Brows blew a 3.5 point cover last week in hilarious fashion. You want to bet on them again, this week?

Even if you (somehow) like Eagles in this one, there’s a case to be made against both teams. For starters, Philadelphia and Cleveland are an abysmal 3-6 against the spread. Baker Mayfield and the Browns have a losing record at home ATS and Carson Wentz and the Eagles have only covered once on the road. That was back in October when they upset the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers on Sunday Night. Cleveland is 6-3 straight up but they’ve played in a TON of close games rently. Plus, the Browns haven’t won a game by more than three points since Odell Beckham Jr. tore his ACL in week seven.

So you have a choice. Take a division leading team with a losing record, or a winning team that feels like a loser. Good luck!

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Falcons at Saints (-3.5)

Falcons at Saints (-3.5)

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Illustration: (Getty Images)

Illustration: (Getty Images)

Why are the Saints only favored by 3.5? Drew Brees is out Taysom Hill is in. He’ll get the start against Atlanta this afternoon in the Superdome. How will a guy with 18 career passes fair against the Falcon defense? I’m not sure. But probably not well enough for you to feel confident locking New Orleans in.

The Saints rank fourth in the league in fewest yards allowed, but Matt Ryan is third in passing yards this season — ahead of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. And don’t look now, but Atlanta is on a two game winning streak. Could a team prone to disaster really eat a W in the Bayou?

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Jets at Chargers (-9.5)

Jets at Chargers (-9.5)

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Illustration: (Getty Images)

Illustration: (Getty Images)

Ah, the Jets. We missed you on your bye week!

Coach Potato (a.k.a. Adam Gase) said that “nobody’s talking” about tanking. Right. The 0-9 team is our weekly leader in the powerless rankings and they’re looking to lock up that No. 1 draft pick and Trevor Lawrence… if he actually wants to leave Clemson. New York is jetting across the country to play the 2-7 Chargers (and head coach Anthony Lynn), who are not as bad as their record says they are but have a tendency to play in close games. Everyones knows LA should be favored here, but the number scares me. Over a touchdown? I’ll pass. So should you.

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Chiefs at Raiders (+7.5)

Chiefs at Raiders (+7.5)

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Illustration: (Getty Images)

Illustration: (Getty Images)

The last time these teams played I told you to take the Raiders +13 at Arrowhead. That week, Vegas handed Kansas City its sole loss of the year. On Sunday Night they’ll meet again, but you should stay away from this spread. Take the moneyline or over, I don’t like the number here.

Since the week five loss, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have gone 4-0. Two of their wins have been blowouts against the Broncos (3-6) and the Jets (winless). The other wins have been against the Bills by nine and, most recently, against the Panthers by two. I’m not going to argue that the 8-1 Chiefs are frauds — they’re one of, if not the, best teams in the league. But both KC and LV are 6-3 ATS. Giving up a touchdown+ to a division foe on Sunday night may be a stretch.

You should also stay away from this game because the Raiders and Derek Carr lost most of their defensive line last week to contact tracing guidelines but, in typical NFL fashion, they’ll suit up tonight.

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If you can’t resist...

If you can’t resist...

Alright I’m getting back into it. I went 2-2 last week and still have a winning record betting games I tell you to avoid. I’m 20-18 on the season and will laugh as long as my picking percentage stays above 50 percent.

All of these games you just clicked through are still ones to avoid betting (and sometimes watching). But we’re through 10 weeks of NFL football and I’m picking winners. Won’t you join me?

Here’s who I like this week.

  • I told you to never bet on Cleveland. But you should brake that rule this week. I like the Browns to win and cover in a close one.
  • LA has played in a ton of close games. That won’t happen this week. I like the Chargers to blow the doors off the Jets. 0-10 will suit New York well.
  • The Saints were just fine without Drew Brees last year but they had a proven QB (Teddy Bridgewater) playing in his place. Taysom Hill at QB scares me, but I’m taking the Saints here. New Orleans’ roster is so deep. I still like them to pull off a win against the Falcons.
  • Look, Kansas City is great and they should win this game… but take the Raiders to cover again. I like Vegas to stay within a touchdown on Sunday Night.
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