Sunday Scaries: The Week 13 bets to avoid

Sunday Scaries: The Week 13 bets to avoid

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It was a rough week for the Sunday Scaries last week.

I went 1-3 in the picks I told you to avoid… so I hope you stayed away!

Still, somehow, I have a winning record betting the ugliest games of the week. I’m 24-22 for the season in Sunday Scaries picks. And as long as I’m over 50 percent, I’ll take it.

I’ll tell you who to pick if you can’t resist. But first, here are the spreads that give me the Sunday Scaries.

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Lions at Bears (-3)

Lions at Bears (-3)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 13 bets to avoid
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On one sideline, you have a team that was just blown out in front of a national audience and on the other sideline you have the Chicago Bears. Wait, they were that team last week, too.

Mitch Trubisky and the Bears come into this game losing five straight. They started the season 5-1 and have now exposed themselves for the frauds they really are. Matt Stafford and the Lions were never frauds, they’ve been consistently bad. Last week, the organization fired Matt Patricia. He left with a 13-29 record after 3 years. Yikes.

The last time these teams played was in week one, when I told you to take Detroit -2.5. Naturally, the Lions gave that game away in the fourth quarter.

I didn’t have confidence in those teams then. I sure as shit don’t have any confidence in them now. Do you?

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Jaguars at Vikings (-10)

Jaguars at Vikings (-10)

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Yes, Jacksonville has lost 10 straight BUT they are covering. Mike Glennon & Co. will look to keep things close against the Vikings after playing in three of four one-score games. But Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are suddenly… hot?

Minnesota has won four of its last five and is tied for second place in the division. If they win this game, the Vikings could be in legitimate playoff contention. Still, 10 points is a lot to lay. Minnesota has only won one game by more than 10. Play a moneyline or the over/under. The spread here is scary.

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Browns at Titans (-5)

Browns at Titans (-5)

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Cleveland and Tennessee are both 8-3 heading into this game. But both have losing records against the spread at 4-7 and 5-6 ATS, respectively. This game will be fun to watch with star players like Derrick Henry and Jarvis Landry, but it won’t be easy to bet.

Tennessee has a tendency to play in close games. The Titans have been in seven one-score games. Cleveland has been in five one-score games, but they’ve produced bad beats all season. The number here dares you to take the Browns, who have won their last three games by 3, 5, and 2 vs. the Texans, Eagles and Jaguars. Are you going to take the bait?

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Eagles at Packers (-8.5)

Eagles at Packers (-8.5)

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Speaking of bad beats, did you see that game on Monday Night? The Eagles were 6.5 point dogs to the Seahawks. Down 23-9 with 21 seconds left, Carson Wentz chucked a hail mary which was caught by Richard Rodgers. 23-15. Eight points for those of you who suck at mental math. Then Philly defied the gambling gods and went for 2… Miles Sanders ran it in with ease. Final score? 23-17. Probably the worst beat of the year.

This week’s matchup features two teams, and two quarterbacks, moving in opposite directions.

Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate and a top 10 QB in competition percentage, yards, touchdowns (1st) and QBR. Wentz ranks in the bottom half of the league in all four categories. But despite last week’s lopsided win, Green Bay comes into this game having played two of three one-score games. So who do you like here? The Eagles, practically playing for their season, or the Packers merely looking to get another easy W.

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If you can’t resist…

If you can’t resist…

We’ve reached the point in the slideshow when I’ve listed all the reasons to avoid these spreads, but I’ll tell you who I like if you can’t not bet. I know, it’s confusing for me too. But I’m actually picking winners (24-22).

So who do I like (if I had to pick) this week?

  • For the second week in a row I’m going to go with the Bears. I know, last week was a bad pick and this one might be too. But I feel more confident this time around. Mostly because they’re playing the Lions.
  • If the Titans were favored by any more points, I’d be tempted to take the Browns to cover. But at -5, I’ll roll the dice with the Titans.
  • I would say take the Jags to cover and keep it close as they’ve been doing for a few weeks now. By the end of this game, I like the Vikings to have a 6-6 record straight up and ATS.
  • I whiffed on the Packers last week and feel like I can’t make that same mistake again. I know it’s a lot of points, but I think the Eagles are that bad.
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