Take Your Pick: The 32 best NFL first rounders at each draft slot since 2002

The NFL Draft is all about predicting the future. There are countless guesses as to which players will fit in a certain system or what position groups have the deepest talent pool that could affect where the league trends down the line. In preparation for those hypotheticals, most will look back at what worked and what didn’t from past NFL Drafts.

We’re deep-diving into the best selections from each of the 32 first-round NFL draft positions since the last expansion of the league when the Houston Texans joined the league in 2002 and selected David Carr with their first-ever draft choice. Longtime Jacksonville Jaguar David Garrard is the only quarterback from the 2002 NFL Draft to make a Pro Bowl.

So yes, Drew Brees being selected No. 32 overall in 2001 makes him ineligible. Washington choosing quarterback Patrick Ramsey No. 32 overall one year later makes the former Tulane standout eligible. Safe to say the final spot on the countdown would go to someone obvious though. On the other hand, the No. 1 picks since 2002 have been sea chum compared to the sharks taken at No. 2. Be forewarned, No.1 will surprise you.

His career as a San Diego Charger lasted all of an hour. After being taken by the Chargers with the first overall pick in the 2004 draft, Manning the Younger was traded for to the Giants for Philip Rivers (whom the Giants drafted 4th). Manning’s accomplishments never quite reached the level of his brother Peyton, Manning the Elder, who was the No. 1 pick in 1998 and fell outside the eligibility for this countdown. After a standout career at Ole Miss, Eli is the only 21st century No. 1 overall pick to win multiple Super Bowls. And he was the MVP of both championship wins over the Patriots. He also had two game-winning TD drives in both, one that included the escape and David Tyree helmet catch (Super Bowl XLII) and the Manning to Manningham dime (Super Bowl XLVI), one of the greatest clutch passes in Super Bowl history.

Also in contention for this distinction were Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck. Only Manning doesn’t have a glaring red flag. Luck’s career wasn’t long enough, Newton doesn’t have a Super Bowl title and Stafford’s rise to prominence came after a slightly above average career in Detroit, where he didn’t win a playoff game. Eli has his faults but his four career Pro Bowl appearances ties Jake Long, Mario Williams and Luck for the most from the No. 1 spot since 2002.

Over the last 20 years, the No. 2 pick has been where more talent resides than the top pick in the draft. Remarkably most of them were on the defensive side of the ball. Julius Peppers, Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, Nick Bosa and Chase Young, to name a few. However, amid all of those defensive pillars, Calvin Johnson stands out.

Not to diminish fellow No. 2 overall pick Von Miller’s impact on two different Super Bowl-winning defenses, but Megatron was a one-man offensive band. Few cornerbacks could keep up with his long strides and 4.35 for the 40 speed in someone else’s shoes. Johnson was a top-flight wideout who could leap into the penthouse without an elevator, courtesy of his 42.5-inch vertical and 36-inch arms. Johnson makes DK Metcalf look like a pipsqueak. Despite retiring at the age of 33, he set a new single-season record for receiving yards, played in six consecutive Pro Bowls and recorded 731 receptions for 11,619 yards and 83 touchdowns.

A few solid options with Joe Thomas and Andre Johnson exist, but none touch the credentials of Fitz. After two years at Pittsburgh, the former Vikings ball boy spent his entire 17-year NFL career with the Cardinals, and his production is insane, considering the attrition in Phoenix at quarterback. There were 10 primary starters, from Matt Leinart to Kevin Kolb, during Fitzgerald’s time as a Cardinal and yet he made 11 Pro Bowls.

Fitzgerald is second in NFL history in all-time receptions (1,378) and second all-time receiving yards (17,083), both behind Jerry Rice. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer is one of the best wide receivers to ever play and only got one chance at a Super Bowl, a losing effort to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLIII. Even without a ring, Fitzgerald’s legacy is pristine.

The candidates at fourth overall featured some stiff competition in the aforementioned Philip Rivers. However, Williams has already been named a Pro Bowler and All-Pro more times than Rivers, who has zero All-Pro selections on his resume. Williams wasted the first half of his career with the dysfunctional Daniel Snyder regime in Washington. After the medical staff misdiagnosed a cancerous growth in his head, Williams refused to play for them and orchestrated a trade to San Francisco.

Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme relies on skilled blockers as any offense in the league and since arriving in San Fran two years ago, Williams has done it all to exemplify why he’s the best left tackle in the NFL, and a future Hall of Famer. Rivers was instrumental to the Chargers organization for a decade and a half, but he was never considered a top-three player at his position. As accomplished as Rivers was throughout his lengthy NFL career, Trent Williams has been more valuable at his craft.

The first defensive selection on this countdown. And Mack tops the list where there are more hits than misses from the No. 5 position including the late Sean Taylor, A.J. Hawk and Patrick Peterson. The No. 5 pick from 2014 has made six Pro Bowl appearances in his eight seasons in the league and was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2016.

The four-time All-Pro selection has been a dominant player for his entire NFL career with a quality and longevity unmatched by everyone else up for consideration. The now-former Raider and Bear will start his first season with the Chargers in 2022, reuniting with Brandon Staley, who was his former position coach in Chicago.

In a league stacked with diva receivers, Julio Jones has been a quiet force and a calm storm since Atlanta drafted him in 2011. The eye of the storm truly began once he became the primary option as Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez reached their twilight years. During the 2010s, Jones amassed more receiving yards than any receiver in the league. Between 2014 and 2019, he gained more than 1,300 yards per game six times. Even after a disappointing season in Tennessee’s run-heavy scheme, Jones’s 91.9 yards per game for his career is the highest in NFL history and he is currently tied for third all-time with 59 career games of 100 yards or more receiving.

The sixth pick has become a treasure trove for teams drafting there in recent history. Quenton Nelson, Jamal Adams and Justin Herbert have been transformative picks here over the last five years. But Jones is the gold standard until further notice.

Despite his on-the-field turbulence over the last few seasons, don’t forget how amazing Peterson has been throughout the majority of his NFL career. The longtime Minnesota Viking barely outduels Josh Allen (the Buffalo quarterback drafted in 2018, not the Jacksonville defender chosen at No. 7 in 2019) for this spot, mainly due to the former Wyoming standout’s short NFL career.

The seven-time Pro Bowler is currently a free agent but led the NFL in rushing yards during three separate seasons, including his 2012 MVP season. Peterson is also a seven-time All-Pro selection. Buffalo’s Allen likely passes Peterson with a ring and a few more dominant seasons. But for now, it’s all AP.

Before we get to Conkin, let’s first start with another No. 8 pick in Christian McCaffrey. Drafted out of Stanford, where he set a new record for all-purpose yards in a season, McCaffrey has been as good as advertised for the Carolina Panthers. When healthy McCaffrey is an all-purpose back who provides a skill set that matches the modern-day pass-heavy pro game. In 2019, he finished the season with 1,387 yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, along with 116 catches for 1,005 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Since then, he’s missed 23 games. However, unless you’re Dave Gettleman, it’s hard to justify picking a tailback in the top-10 unless he’s otherworldly. Jack Conklin is only 27, but he’s already been a two-time First-Team All-Pro on a team reliant on opening up holes for its running backs Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Prior to 2020, he was a key cog on the Titans offensive line that helped Derrick Henry pop for 2,027 yards en route to the AFC Championship Game.

Kuechly’s NFL career started with a bang, winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and overall Defensive Player of the Year a season later in 2013. His last seven NFL seasons were dominant as one of the league’s best in the 2010s. He was a Pro Bowler every year from 2013-19 and was a first- or second-team All-Pro selection in each of those seasons.

The No. 9 pick doesn’t have a large group of heavy hitters to pick from. Carlos Rogers? Ted Ginn, Jr.? B.J. Raji? C.J. Spiller? All were solid pros at one point in time, yet none had the consistency of Kuechly. The former Boston College standout should be a Hall of Famer even if his pro career lasted only eight seasons.

Patrick ‘Don’t Call me Pat’ Mahomes has played to a different beat than the average quarterback since he was drafted 10th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2017. There were legitimate questions about how he’d adapt to the pro game after a four-year college career playing Nerf ball in Texas Tech’s Air Raid system, where he led the nation in various passing categories. After sitting for a year behind Alex Smith, he immediately set the NFL on fire. The sidearm throws, an assortment of unique delivery angles, and the pocket movement he exhibited during the 2018 season was as astonishing as watching Michael Jackson moonwalk for the first time at the 25th anniversary celebration of Motown.

As the Chiefs starter, he tossed 50 touchdowns and won the Offensive Player of the Year and NFL MVP awards during his debut season. In year two he earned Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs have reached the AFC Championship Game every year since. Pick any era and Mahomes is the best player taken 10th overall. Mahomes could be remembered as one of the two or three finest quarterbacks in league history by the time all is said and done.

One of the closest calls on this countdown was at the No. 11 spot with two legitimately strong choices: Watt and Patrick Willis. We went with the former. Both Willis and Watt are both a step ahead of Ben Roethlisberger and Demarcus Ware. Watt, being a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, when Willis never won the award, gives him the nod.

Watt is a five-time first-team All-Pro selection and is a five-time Pro Bowl selection as well. He led the NFL in sacks twice and was the league’s co-forced fumbles leader in 2018. Watt missed most of the 2021 regular season with a shoulder injury after making the jump from the Texans to the Cardinals, starting his new team’s first seven games.

Marshawn Lynch and Beast Mode were a Jekyll and Hyde manifestation. The Buffalo Bills team that drafted Lynch in 2007 could never tap into the Beast Mode and was in and out of trouble, but once he was traded to the Seattle Seahawks, he put the league on notice. Lynch wasn’t even the starter during his third and final season in Buffalo. Beast Mode emerged once he was traded to Seattle during the 2010 season.

Marshawn just wanted you to protect your mentals. Beast Mode was a weapon of destruction. His (Beast Mode’s) 67-yard romp through the New Orleans Saints defense in the 2010 season’s Wild-Card Round is the stuff legends are made of except we saw it happen live. He did it again against Arizona in 2014. One Super Bowl ring, 10,000 career rushing yards, twice leading the league in rushing touchdowns and multiple All-Pro selections don’t adequately describe the impact Lynch made. And yet, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll (or OC Darrell Bevell) didn’t call his number at the goal-line in Super Bowl XLIX.

The most dominant defensive tackle in NFL history was an easy choice at No. 13 with limited competition from Brian Orakpo and Kamerion Wimbley. In a re-draft of 2014, only Khalil Mack, who already appeared on this countdown, even has a slight possibility of going ahead of him. Truth be told, only four of the top 17 picks from 2014 haven’t made a Pro Bowl. And Donald is better than them all.

The three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year has made the Pro Bowl in each of his eight seasons and was a first-time All-Pro selection in every year but his rookie season of 2014. And in 2014, he was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. And now he has a ring. Canton awaits.

The shutdown corner moniker gets thrown around recklessly, but Darrelle Revis was the real deal. The New York-New Jersey metropolitan area was the perfect city because he was a master at congesting passing attacks. From 2007 to 2012, Revis was the king in the Jets’ secondary. The Jets pass defense during his prime was routinely one of the league’s best, and as a result, he was named to four consecutive first-team All-Pros.

The 2009 Jets nearly advanced to the Super Bowl with Mark Sanchez thanks to Revis Island lifting the rest of the defense. Between 2009 and 2012, the Jets ranked first, seventh, second and 10th in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and only dropped in 2012 when Revis missed 14 games with a knee injury. Earl Thomas was also selected at 14 in 2009, but while he may have been an integral piece of a more iconic “Legion of Boom” pass defense, Revis’ singular dominance gets the nod, just as long as he doesn’t holdout.

No. 15 overall doesn’t have that one surefire Hall-of-Fame choice but JPP no doubt fits the bill as the best from the last 20 years to come out of that slot. Michael Clayton and Brian Cushing were other considered choices, but Pierre-Paul’s two Super Bowls and three Pro Bowl selections puts him over the top.

Pierre-Paul, who tragically lost a portion of his right hand because of a Fourth of July fireworks mishap, is currently a free agent after several years with the Giants and the last four in Tampa Bay. The 2021 season was the only postseason trip of his career where he didn’t win a Super Bowl. Pierre-Paul has 91.5 career sacks, including a season-best 16.5 in 2013.

Polamalu was drafted 16th in 2008 after the Steelers’ deal to sign Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson fell through. AT USC, Polamalu was both graceful and brutal. In addition to eight Pro Bowls and six All-Pro selections, he became one of five safeties named NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2013.

Playing near the line of scrimmage, above it, or guarding the air over Pittsburgh’s sidelines, he was a force of nature with an instinct for playing the run as well as he defended the pass to go along with some shampoo pitch-worthy hair.

One of the NFL’s rising defensive stars who plays an integral role in San Francisco’s defense takes the top spot from the last 20 years at No. 17. C.J. Mosley, Derwin James and a few others have had solid pro careers, but Armstead’s consistency and growth makes him our top choice despite no Pro Bowl appearances as of now.

The 2015 pick should get there soon, if not this next season, as the 2021 campaign was his best as a 49er. He started all 17 games last year and posted a career high with 63 tackles. His 10 sacks from 2019 is still his season-best but Armstead had his next-highest mark with six last season.

The youngest member of this group is Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander. While he’s still only 24, Alexander has made 42 starts in his first three seasons and established himself as the NFL’s second-best cornerback behind the Rams’ Jalen Ramsey. In 2019, his 16 forced incompletions were second in the NFL.

In 2020, he allowed just 353 receiving yards all season in over 600 coverage snaps. Alexander still has a long career ahead of him and hasn’t reached his prime yet, but he already projects as one of the great cover corners of his generation. The 20th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Melvin Ingram, has played in three Pro Bowls as a pass-rushing fiend for the Chargers and Chiefs, but Alexander, take in 2018, is the type of corner teams have to game plan around.

Leaving the city of Tallahassee, Florida for the first time since junior-high football is what occurred with the 19th pick of the 2006 NFL Draft, sending Cromartie to the Chargers. The defensive back spent his first four years in the league in San Diego before another quartet with the Jets.

The Florida State standout was a four-time Pro Bowler and led the NFL in interceptions in 2007, the year of his only All-Pro selection. Other players considered for this spot were the back-to-back Mizzou choices at No. 19 in 2009 and 2010 in Jeremy Maclin and Sean Weatherspoon.

Talib was a brash, trash-talking, chain-snatching cornerback who played on numerous teams before peaking with the Denver Broncos. In 12 seasons, Talib was named to a pair of All-Pro teams, five Pro Bowls and was a starter on the Broncos defense that powered their way to victory in Super Bowl 50. In 2014, Talib joined the Broncos in free agency and became the spokesman for the vaunted No Fly Zone secondary. Von Miller is recognized as the face of that defense, but Talib was the mouthpiece for a lockdown coverage unit. In 2016, he peaked as the 34th best player in the NFL’s top 100 players and after the season, Pro Football Focus named him the top cornerback in the NFL.

Besting Chandler Jones and HaHa Clinton-Dix for the top No. 21 spot from the last two decades is Wilfork. The two-time Super Bowl champion is considered one of the best defensive tackles in NFL history, and was a consistent part of the best recent league dynasty in New England, having won his two championships 10 seasons apart.

The four-time All-Pro selection and five-time Pro Bowler had a quick stint with the Texans after a 10-year run with the Patriots and retired after the 2016 season. From 2005-16, Wilfork started at least 13 games per season, minus 2013 when he tore his Achilles tendon..

Thomas was a Mercedes Benz of a receiver, standing at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds. He was drafted out of Georgia Tech at a time when the Yellow Jackets were a Mercedes factory of tall wideouts like Stephen Hill and Calvin Johnson. After playing in Paul Johnson’s triple-option, he thrived when Tim Tebow became the starter during his rookie season. While the passing attack was dreadful, he somehow scored a game-winning touchdown in iconic fashion against Pittsburgh in the Wild-Card Round.

In a few years, Justin Jefferson may earn this slot, but for now, Thomas is the guy at No. 22 for a good reason. When he wasn’t saddled with Honda Corolla quarterbacks, Thomas recorded four consecutive 1,400-yard receiving yards while Peyton Manning was under center. If he had the opportunity to play with a competent starting quarterback for longer than four years, his career could have ended up with a bust in Canton.

In a few years, this spot should belong to Dee Ford but for now, the McGahee, former Miami Hurricane, takes the mantle. The first running back off the board in the 2003 NFL Draft, despite a horrific knee injury in the 2003 national championship game, and only one of two selected in the first round alongside Penn State’s Larry Johnson, McGahee sustained a decade-long professional career, starting with the Bills.

McGahee never played during his rookie season but rushed for 990 yards or more in each healthy season in Buffalo. A change in scenery came for McGahee in Baltimore in 2007, with his first year as a Raven spawning one of his two Pro Bowl appearances. His first year in Denver was the other in 2011.

The 24th pick features some of the best steals in the first round. Dez Bryant, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers, on their own, are a blinding array of talent. Aaron Rodgers would seem to be the fit here, but Ed Reed was a turnover machine who could shift a game in one play. Not only is Reed a quarterback pickpocket, but he was an improvisational defensive virtuoso who would break out of his coverage and surprise opposing quarterbacks when he came flying in for interceptions.

His film study and ability to predict where the ball was going allowed him to lead the league in interceptions, a league-record three times. Most importantly, he was an inspirational locker room personality who exhibited leadership ability at the University of Miami and Baltimore. Remarkably, nobody has ever seemed to have a bad word to say about Ed Reed, and even Bill Belichick gushes when the topic of Reed arises.

There are a few under-the-radar solid choices to be chosen No. 25 overall over the last 20 years. Between Jabrill Peppers, Xavier Rhodes and Santonio Holmes, solid pro careers have been built as the stretch run of the first round nears. None had the production of Hightower, who is currently a free agent after a 10-season run with the Patriots.

Hightower has three Super Bowl rings, following up his two national championships at Alabama. He was a consensus All-American for the Crimson Tide and continued that with two Pro Bowl appearances and a second-team All-Pro selection in 2016. In his final year in New England, he started 15 games and had 64 tackles.

Matthews is often overlooked among the decade’s best pass-rushers, but in the storied history of the Green Bay Packers, he is the franchise’s career leader in sacks. Playing outside linebacker, Matthews recorded a career-high 55 quarterback pressures in his second year and finished second behind Troy Polamalu in the AP Defensive Player of the Year vote. He didn’t save his best hits for pivotal pass-plays, either. His tackle of Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall in Super Bowl XXXI forced a fumble, which the Packers recovered and gave them a lead they never relinquished. The flowing blonde hair also supplemented his intimidation factor. Just imagine a 6-foot-3, 255 pound Thor flying full-speed toward the backfield and you’ll understand how his iconic mane added to his aura.

Somehow, there were 26 players taken before D-Hop in the 2013 NFL Draft. Hopkins was the second wide receiver off the board after Tavon Austin, and only nine players drafted ahead of Hopkins have also made a Pro Bowl. The longtime Texan will enter his third season with Arizona this fall and is one of the premier receivers in the NFL.

Running back Larry Johnson and receivers Jimmy Smith and Roddy White all were solid at their NFL best, but none touch the Hall-of-Fame potential of Hopkins. The five-time Pro Bowler and five-time All-Pro selection is poised to continue his dominant ways, as he’s already one of the most-feared wideouts in the country despite rarely having an elite quarterback throwing him the ball.

Left tackle Joe Staley spent his entire 13-year career with the San Francisco 49ers after they drafted him 28th overall in 2007. While he was typically a grade below the premier left tackles of his era (Joe Thomas, Jason Peters, and Tyron Smith), he was still distinguished enough to be commemorated as a member of the NFL’s All-Decade Team for the 2010s.

Staley also played in both Super Bowls San Francisco lost last decade. He blocked for Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick in XLVII, then stuck around to protect Jimmy G in Super Bowl LIV, his final game.

The only center, and one of two offensive linemen, to make this list was the fourth-to-last pick of the first round from Ohio State in 2006. Mangold spent his entire 11-year NFL career with the Jets, making seven Pro Bowl appearances. He was also a three-time All-Pro selection. Mangold started every game of his 164 as an NFL player.

Mangold beats out Hakeem Nicks and Harrison Smith for this spot because of his consistency and longevity in the NFL. While he might not be worthy of the Hall of Fame, he’s one of the best centers in league history.

Predictably, the deeper into the first round you go, the more difficult it becomes to find an uncut gem. T.J. Watt has twice been a Defensive Player of the Year finalist in 2019 and 2020 before breaking through and winning the award this past season.

In 2020, he tied Michael Strahan’s record for sacks in a season; He was already the most accomplished player picked 30th, but that distinction makes him a porcupine. Untouchable. Pittsburgh possesses some impressive acumen for picking 30th. In 2005, they drafted tight end Heath Miller.

One of the best defensive backs of the 21st century falls into the penultimate position of the first round. Asomugha nearly fell to the second round in the second year the NFL Draft had 32 picks in the first round. Four cornerbacks were taken before him in the 2003 NFL Draft with two also making Pro Bowls in Terence Newman and Marcus Trufant.

Greg Olsen and Cameron Heyward were also considered for this spot, but neither has the legacy to match Asomugha. The four-time All-Pro selection and three-time Pro Bowler earned a reputation for several years as a shutdown cornerback, while hauling in 15 interceptions. After eight years in Oakland, Asomugha spent his final three NFL seasons with Philadelphia and San Francisco.

Jackson should never have fallen this far. In a league that had already talked itself into Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow and Brandon Weeden, Jackson should have been scooped up in the first twenty picks. The last pick of the first round has been running Formula 1 speeds since his starting debut, and even won MVP in his second season.

Detractors will fixate on his progressively worse passing numbers, but good luck finding a mobile near second-round pick who gives you an 84:31 touchdown-interception through four seasons.