The GM Meetings are in the books, the Winter Meetings aren’t in the distant future, and the rumors are beginning to fly. You can be sure your favorite team is talking to agents for players! Does that mean anything? Nope, sure doesn’t! But you’ll take anything at this point, and they know that. So we’d better get through our offseason primers. Today, it’s baseball’s Group of Death, the AL East.
Projected 2023 Payroll: $41 million
Notable Free Agents: Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor
Could they use Aaron Judge? Someone has gotta consistently hit the ball out of their now gargantuan left field, right?
What else could they use besides Judge? For the Orioles, it’s about balancing what they need with what’s coming up through the system. The O’s faithful got a look at Gunnar Henderson for a part of last season, and he’s taking the third-base job at the moment. Grayson Rodriguez will almost certainly be in the rotation at some point, and very well may start the year there (he struck out 97 and walked just 21 in 69.2 innings at Triple-A with a 2.20 ERA, so he doesn’t have much to prove down there). Jordan Westburg likely will join Henderson on the left side of the infield at some point. There’s an outside shot we could see OF Colton Cowser. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t use one of the big-time shortstops or outfielders and then sort of just figure it out from there, but you get the feeling their big offseason splash in the everyday lineup comes next winter rather than this one.
Where they could use immediate help is the rotation. Rodriguez (above) is likely the only pitcher coming through the system who will impact the starters in the next couple of years. DL Hall is the wild card, as he has hilarious strikeout numbers but has only started 19 games above Single-A, and showed a very distant relationship with the strike zone either in Triple-A or his one start in MLB. He’s later this season maybe.
Not that we should expect a deGrom or Verlander to land here, though they could use it. You could see them going into the second tier of relievers, or doing something like a rehab project like Mike Clevinger or Sean Manaea that they could flip at the deadline if they pitch well and the O’s aren’t in the race for any of the playoff spots.
Projected 2023 Payroll: Whatever’s leftover from the sale of Liverpool
Notable Free Agents: Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Tommy Pham, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill
Could they use Aaron Judge? If only for the schadenfreude to be enjoyed by all, but also yes, quite so
What else could they use besides Judge? Their ownership giving a flying fuck again, but that ship seems to have sailed. The Red Sox might lose a fuckton of offense in Martinez and Bogaerts this winter, and they’ll have to do something about that. Maybe they promised Trevor Story the shortstop spot when they signed him as Xander exited stage left, but then they will need someone at second. Triston Casas will take over at first, and looks to be the new Greek God of Walks (even though he’s not Greek, but that’s that tradition).
The outfield is truly sad, as right now it’s an Alex Verdugo-Enrique Hernandez-Rob Refsnyder look — and that’s a bad look. They could use help in any of the spots, both at the plate and with the glove, as their outfield defense was bordering on woeful last season. Does Judge cure most of that? Sure does! Give it to us!
The rotation is still depending on Chris Sale’s stability, both physically and mentally, which is the definition of building a castle on sand. Brayan Bello is one of the biggest surprise bets for 2023, as he was undone by woeful luck in his first foray in The Show (.403 BABIP despite giving up only a 37.5 percent hard-hit rate). Bello would benefit from an improved defense in the infield, too. But even with a healthy Sale and Bello, this rotation is short. Any B+ or better starter on the market would be a huge boon for the Sawx. Same goes for the pen, as it was pretty much a disaster last season, too.
Projected 2023 Payroll: $190 million
Notable Free Agents: Aaron Judge (duh), Aroldis Chapman, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Britton, Jameson Taillon, Matt Carpenter
Could they use Aaron Judge? Look at the lineup without him and tell us
What else could they use besides Judge? A lot, but Judge is the key. The lineup as it stands right now, with no Anthony Rizzo either, just isn’t good. It hinges on the very balky muscles and tendons and ligaments of Giancarlo Stanton. Oswaldo Cabrera is slated to start in right, and he might be fine, but has only shown to be a good hitter in the minors rather than anything that will have the bleacher creatures painting their chest in tribute. Same goes for Oswald Peraza at short right now.
Let’s just assume they bring Judge back. That’s not really enough, because we saw in the middle of the season just how bad this lineup can be around him. Josh Donaldson is utterly cooked at third, and his numbers against lefties don’t suggest he can even be demoted to a platoon. And that’s if you think his jackwagon personality would accept such a role peacefully. If D.J. LeMahieu is going to take over full-time at first again, the middle of the infield is decidedly popgun. These are the Yankees, shouldn’t they be in on Carlos Correa? But these are the modern Yankees, who almost certainly aren’t going to push their payroll to $270-$280 million by bringing back Judge and adding one of the premier shortstops. Left field is another spot that needs an upgrade even if Judge returns.
If you take Nestor Cortes at full value to be the backup to Gerrit Cole, the Yankee rotation hinges on a return to form for Frankie Montas (above), after he crumbled under the New York lights after his trade from Oakland, and whether Luis Severino can actually carry a full load of innings for the first time in four years. Maybe that’s enough, but another innings-eater in the middle wouldn’t kill anyone.
The pen could probably use one more big arm as well, just in case Clay Holmes isn’t the guy he was in the first half of last year. Always good to have a backup plan.
Projected 2023 Payroll: $71 million
Notable Free Agents: Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Kluber
Could they use Aaron Judge? Let’s all picture that for a moment, a world where the Rays would actually go after Judge because yes, they need him. Let’s just live there for a second.
What else could they use besides Judge? The Rays need to clear out some names because they have a bit of a roster crunch, which they started to address with the trade of Ji-Man Choi a couple days ago. There’s probably still another move coming. First up, they really need to look at their infield defense. It was horrific last season, though some of that should improve with a full season from Wander Franco at short rather than just half of one. Given how the Rays generally operate, Brandon Lowe could also be packing his bags to get someone with a better glove at second. That answer could be Curtis Mead from within as well.
Either way, they need a bat or two in the outfield, and at DH, unless they’re going to buy into Harold Ramirez’s BABIP-fueled 2022. But we know they’re not taking any of the big names off the market. They’ll find another way. They’ll sucker some team into a trade that we won’t be able to comprehend in a year or two given the way it works out.
If they can count on Big Bird cosplayer Tyler Glasnow (above) to actually remain upright — and given his frame and velocity that’s hardly a sure bet — then a top three of Glasnow-Shane McClanahan-Drew Rasmussen is a very fine start. Maybe Taj Bradley cracks the staff behind that, but he’s more of a bad-contact guy than a lights-out guy, and they could use a Corey Kluber replacement to take innings.
Don’t even worry about the pen, because they always figure that one out.
Projected 2023 Payroll: $194 million
Notable Free Agents: Ross Stripling, Jackie Bradley Jr.
Could they use Aaron Judge? Make your team better and a competitor significantly worse? That’s the whole point here, innit?
What could they use besides Judge? Wouldn’t seem like much. But they may need to make a decision on the middle of their infield. Is Bo Bichette really a shortstop? Is Whit Merrifield toast at 33? He might very well be. Which means the defense is a little wonky up the middle. And that matters to a middling-strikeout rotation like the Jays’. One of the corner outfield spots being upgraded? There’s an argument. There’s an argument, given that there’s some air in Lourdes Gurriel’s numbers from last year.
In the rotation, they need to answer if the explosion in the hard contact made against Jose Berrios (above) is now the new normal or an anomaly. All of his pitches, other than his change-up, saw a significant jump in velocity... the wrong way (ie exit velocity). If he can be what he was in Minnesota, then it’s a pretty damn good rotation. If he’s this now, they’re one pitcher short. They should operate as if it’s the latter and getting prime Berrios back is just a bonus.
They could use another arm in the pen, because there’s a big enough gap between their ERA and FIP to suggest something of a market correction.