Over the past 15 years, the tightest betting odds Floyd Mayweather has had for one of his fights has been -190 during his 2007 middleweight title bout with “The Golden Boy” Oscar De La Hoya.
Mayweather has had other not-quite-as-tight lines down the final stretch of his career:
-240 against Ricky Hatton
-300 against Canelo Alvarez
-350 against Connor McGregor
Those are three pretty big names in the world of boxing… and one really tough Irishman. So, as Mayweather gets set for his first fight against a YouTuber tomorrow, you’d think Mayweather’s odds would be through the roof in the region of about -10000, right? Well, that’s not the case. Not anymore, at least.
To put a little perspective on the current betting line for tomorrow’s fight — as well as the betting world in general — when the fight was first rumored, Mayweather opened up at -10000 odds, according to Odds Checker. In other words, you’d have to bet $10,000 in order to win $100 should Mayweather win the fight. That’s just not worth it at that point. Mayweather was just too big a favorite for anyone to bet on him. However, as the fight has drawn nearer, the odds have creeped further and further in Logan Paul’s favor. When the fight was first announced, Mayweather’s odds fell from -10000 to -2500, a monumental drop for a boxer who hasn’t lost a fight in his pro career. Since then, the odds have only gotten worse for “Money” Mayweather. Now, one day before the fight, Mayweather is checking in with just -900 odds. Paul has +500 odds (or a 16.7 percent chance) to win the fight after opening up with +2500 odds.
Apparently, people have been betting hard on Logan Paul, despite Paul having a career record of 0-1 as a pro boxer after losing a fight to another YouTuber, KSI, in 2019. Still, 57 percent of bets made on the fight have been in favor of Paul. In the betting world, that’s an enormous difference. But it makes a lot of sense if you think about it.
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People always tend to go for big money when gambling. It’s a reason why parlays have become much more popular among casual and beginning bettors. That being said, people are much more likely to bet for the guy with +500 odds than the guy with -900. If you were to put down $100 on each, a Paul win would net you $600 while a Mayweather win would net you about $111, and that’s before the house takes a 9-percent vig from your winnings, because that’s how they make money (the house always wins). Furthering the case for betting on Paul, Mayweather is now 44 years old. He’s 5-foot-8 with a 72-inch reach and is rumored to weigh approximately 160 pounds ahead of today’s weigh-in. Paul, on the other hand, is 26 years old, 6-foot-2 with a 76-inch reach, and weighs close to 200 (although Paul will be fined $100,000 for every pound he weighs over 190 at the weigh-in). If you’re gonna go for broke, why not go for the guy with better measurables? It doesn’t mean he’s a sure bet, but it definitely gives him a huge advantage.
Yet despite the disparity in height and weight, Paul’s lone professional fight still doesn’t bode well for the YouTube star. Before Paul fought KSI in November of 2019, KSI weighed in at 193 pounds. Paul weighed 199 pounds. KSI was just 5-foot-11 as well. Yet despite those advantages, Paul still lost the fight.
When asked about the massive amount of Paul bettors, Odds Checker spokesman Kyle Newman said, “It’s tough to see any way [Paul] wins this fight… perhaps the odds were just too good to pass up.” Now that the market has changed the opening odds so drastically, it is the perfect time to put money on Floyd Mayweather. Paul’s history (albeit very brief) in fights against people smaller than him doesn’t bode well for Paul backers. Even if you are worried that Paul’s size will be too much for Mayweather to handle, the fight’s rules indicate that no judges will be present and no winner will be declared at the end of the fight. Essentially, the only way for either boxer to win would be via knockout. Seeing as how Mayweather has just 27 knockouts in 50 career fights, it’s not unthinkable that Mayweather and Paul could go the distance. In that scenario, all bettors on both sides would have their money returned in full, as this was the precedent set after the Tyson-Jones Jr. fight last year.
Let’s hope Mayweather sits Paul down flat on his ass early and often. That way Mayweather bettors get their due, and we all get to laugh at the thought of a YouTuber thinking he could take on a world-renowned boxer. Of course, the real win here is not giving any money or time to two people who have a history of being very terrible.