Those seeking College Football Playoff clarity this weekend should think again

I’m not going to tell you with a straight face that Syracuse is going to stay undefeated and win the ACC. Three of its next six games are against ranked teams, with NC State coming to the dome Saturday, followed by a visit to Clemson the following week, and a matchup with Wake Forest in a little over a month.

Dino Babers’ team is well-coached, but we know which orange runs ACC football. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers face a stingy Seimnoles defense in Tallahassee on Saturday night, but other than next week’s matchup against the Orangemen (and maybe even including it), Clemson might not play a ranked opponent again until a bowl game.

North Carolina leads an abysmal Coastal division (Georgia Tech, currently being led by an interim coach, is in second), and unless the Tar Heels win out, they’ll have a tough time getting, and staying, in the Top 25. Clemson has the most straightforward route to its ideal destination, and will get there if it can win out.

Not all of those teams can make the CFP, and luckily, they all play each other before the end of the regular season. It’s feasible that they could knock off each other rock-paper-scissors style, and the committee could be stuck trying to pick between three one-loss teams. I’ve been rooting for anarchy since the BCS, so the prospect of that sort of chaos is especially enticing.

How would the tie-breaker work for who gets to beat up the winner of the Big Ten West, which right now is in a three-way tie between Illinois, Purdue, and Nebraska? Other than the distinction of winning the conference, I’m not sure how much could even be gleaned by playing an extra game against the West winner, but that’s neither here nor there.

The conference is a little top-heavy this season, and outside of games against one another, the only ranked teams left on the Nittany Lions, Buckeyes, and Wolverines’ schedules are Michigan’s game against the Illini, and maybe Penn State’s contest against the Gophers if P.J. Fleck can row the boat past Bret Bielema on Saturday. Whoever wins between Michigan and Penn State is in the co-pilot’s seat with Ohio State for a bid, and even with a loss could get back in contention.

The way the Big Ten and SEC are shaping up. It’ll be borderline impossible for a Big 12 team to make the CFP with a loss. Oklahoma State is the league’s best shot at making that happen. As much as I love QB Max Duggan and head coach Sonny Dykes, I don’t have a lot of faith in the Horned Frogs after watching Kansas’ backup throw for 262 and four touchdowns in relief duty last week.

There wasn’t much more to love about the Cowboys’ outing over the Red Raiders, needing to grind out a W. There are only two other schools in the Big 12 with one loss, and Kansas and Kansas State don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Unless Mike Gundy can pull off the ultimate farewell fuck you to Texas and Oklahoma, these teams are going to cannibalize each other as is the case when the Sooners don’t have a CFP-caliber team (or coach).

This is by far the biggest contender to piss off a one-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten. USC is undefeated and looking somewhat like the old powerhouse it used to be. Chip Kelly has UCLA playing physical and fast. And Oregon bounced back from an opening week thrashing at the hands of Georgia. The idle Ducks and Bruins could both sneak into the top 10 depending on who loses Saturday, which would set up a dandy of a matchup between Kelly and his former program next Saturday.

The Duck and Trojans won’t face each other unless it’s in the Pac-12 title game, and I’m fascinated at the possibility of either of them finishing the year with one loss but a conference crown. There are no more divisions in the Pac-12, so in theory, USC or UCLA could lose to one another and then play again in the title game. Say one of those teams avenges a loss against whichever won the first game, it’ll be hard to argue they’re less worthy than a one-loss SEC or Big Ten team. Shit, if Oregon wins out and only has one loss to Georgia, they’d probably have a case, too, because we love to discount an early non-conference L to a top-three program even if it was extremely one-sided.

I’m going to drop Lane Kiffin’s team out now. They keep messing around with lesser opponents like they’re one of them, so I’m going to treat them that way. Alright, now between the Vols, the Tide, and the Dawgs, only Tennessee faces both Bama and Georgia in the regular season. If UT’s only loss on the season is to Georgia, and they miss the SEC title game, it’ll be hard to keep them out.

The same could be said about any scenario that leaves out a one-loss Tide or Dawgs team whose only blemish is against a top-five opponent. If you’re keeping track at home here, there are three conferences with real arguments for a one-loss team to make the playoff, two of which could have cases for multiple bids, and another conference with a favorable path for its perennial CFP participant to get back.

College football is commonly a lot more of a shit show than it has been this year, and either we’re headed for an apocalyptic CFP selection weekend, or the snow globe is about to get a series shaking the next month and a half or so.