USMNT in the knockout round! An Argentina-Brazil semifinal! Oh, Canada! (and more World Cup predictions)

Group A with hosts Qatar, the Netherlands, Senegal and Ecuador isn’t wide open. Qatar made it to the semifinals of the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup, losing to a United States B-team. It’s playing on home soil in its World Cup debut. I don’t think Qatar becomes the third straight host to at least make the quarterfinals after Brazil in ’14 and Russia four years ago. I see Senegal in a surprise winning the group with the Netherlands advancing in second place.

Ecuador could make for an interesting challenge, especially being more acquainted with the climate in Qatar. I just don’t see how their defense can stop any of the other three teams in the group. Look for Senegal’s Edouard Mendy, who won the UEFA Champions League as Chelsea’s starter last year, to have his stock rise even more after this tournament.

There are always surprises in the group stage. It never goes exactly to plan. So here’s a bold prediction: the United States will win Group B, advancing to the Round of 16 with Iran. England won’t advance past the group stage, ending the tenure of Gareth Southgate after making it to the finals of UEFA Euro 2020, and nearly winning it if not for Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma, who won’t even play in the tournament thanks to the Italians failing to qualify for the World Cup for the second consecutive time.

Here’s where the European playoff winner will go, with either Wales, Scotland or Ukraine rounding out the group. Wales only must win once to advance to the World Cup, with the other two needing a pair of victories. The challenge for every country rises should Wales advance because of the strength of Gareth Bale.

Argentina runs away with nine points in Group C. Second place comes down to Mexico and Poland. I can’t see El Tri stopping Polish striker Robert Lewandowski and their run of making six straight knockout rounds ends. Mexico did just enough to qualify for the World Cup, just like its rival in the United States. The only difference is the Yanks have clear points where they can improve. El Tri have just looked slightly above average for years.

Saudi Arabia has plenty of talent but not for right now on the world stage. Argentina winning the group would seemingly avoid a challenge from the defending World Cup champions in France. That’s not how I see things going down.

In Group D, I see Denmark beating France and advancing in first place, setting up an Argentina-France matchup in the knockout rounds. Hint: Les Bleus don’t repeat as world champions.

Either Peru, the United Arab Emirates or Australia will join the group from the intercontinental playoffs and neither possesses a large enough challenge to knock off the European duo. Tunisia was inconsistent throughout African qualifying and did just enough to reach the world stage. That’s far from enough to advance with the quality that’ll join it in Qatar.

Japan and Costa Rica, who I believe will advance past Oceania winner New Zealand from a playoff spot, are good tests for recent World Cup winners Spain and Germany, who all compose Group E. I think the Germans are too deep not to find a way into the knockout rounds as group winners, while Spain does get through as well. I can see upsets galore happening here, possibly even a Japan group win.

Costa Rica’s squad nearly had a direct qualifying spot from CONCACAF with goal differential giving the nod to the United States instead. The tests from the other three will be tough. But the United States isn’t the only CONCACAF team I see moving to the knockout stage.

Group F is Belgium and three other countries. Canada looked solid by finishing in first in CONCACAF qualifying, but I’m unsure of the team on the world stage. Croatia isn’t the same squad that nearly won the tournament four years ago. I’ll take the Canadians by a hair getting out of the group stage.

Alphonso Davies Morocco could advance and play similarly to Canada, but the North Americans are more solid defensively and have the better shot to defeat the 2018 World Cup runners-up. Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies will be another young star to see his stock skyrocket in the tournament.

Group G could be very interesting. It’s not a foregone conclusion Brazil waltzes to the Round of 16. Cameroon, Serbia, and Switzerland all have the potential to beat the five-time World Cup winners at their best. Brazil’s squad is conditioned to show up at this time in the FIFA calendar, so it’s foolish to pick against them not advancing.

I’ll take Switzerland to also advance in second place. The Swiss are more seasoned than Serbia, but Cameroon could pull off an upset like Senegal from Group A, thanks to phenomenal goalkeeping from Andre Onana.

Rounding out the group stage is one of the most anticipated World Cup rematches: Uruguay vs. Ghana. Remember that 2010 quarterfinal? Luis Suarez’s intentional handball and red card to help save Uruguay? This is one of the more even groups in the competition with Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, as well as South Korea, making up that quartet.

Give me Uruguay and Ghana to advance. Betting against Ronaldo seems like a stupid move, but the last time Portugal was drawn into the most-even group-stage quartet, it didn’t advance in 2014.

That sets up knockout round matchups of Senegal vs. Iran, United States vs. the Netherlands, Denmark vs. Poland, Argentina vs. France, Germany vs. Canada, Belgium vs. Spain, Brazil vs. Ghana, and Uruguay vs. Switzerland. I see Senegal being the surprise of the tournament, a composed squad that isn’t truly tested on the world stage but has all the pieces to be successful. I believe Senegal will be the only team not from Europe or South American to make the quarterfinals.

The Netherlands ends the United States run in the Round of 16, putting into question the long-term plan of Gregg Berhalter. Denmark and Argentina easily win their first knockout games. Germany gets a stiff test from Canada but advances as well. Somehow, Spain plays into the role of the underdog and upsets Belgium, while Brazil and Uruguay round out the quarterfinalists.

What a loaded quarterfinal round: Germany vs. Brazil, Senegal vs. Argentina, Uruguay vs. Spain, and Denmark vs. The Netherlands. Brazil gets revenge for the 2014 semifinal debacle on home soil and advances to the final four. Senegal’s magical run ends at the hands of Argentina, setting up possibly soccer’s greatest international rivalry in a World Cup semifinal.

Spain outlasts Uruguay with a little bit of luck reminiscent of the 2010 World Cup. The Netherlands didn’t win its group but also advance to the semifinals, which locks in a South America vs. Europe final.

Rivals Brazil and Argentina haven’t met in a World Cup since a Round of 16 matchup in 1990. The Argentines won and advanced to the final, losing to West Germany. History repeats itself and Lionel Messi gets his second shot in likely his last World Cup to lift the trophy at the expense of his country’s greatest foes.

A rematch of the 2010 final in South Africa of The Netherlands vs. Spain yields the same result in Qatar. Spain goes through to the final in extra time. When this predictions story started, I would’ve called myself crazy predicting Spain to the final, especially with a trio of knockout-stage opponents to take down like Belgium, Uruguay, and lastly Holland. But here we are.

The final of Argentina vs. Spain. Messi playing against the country where he played for Barcelona’s youth team, C team, B team, and senior team for 21 seasons, with the biggest stakes possible.

I’m picking Argentina to win the World Cup not because of Messi, but more so because of the mix of players around him that can be spectacular. Spain just doesn’t have the specific legs to keep up with that. Joaquin Correa will be the breakout star of the tournament and a possible passing of the torch on the international stage. Well, that was fun. I’m sure everyone will agree with my spectacular choices.