Which small-market superstars will bolt?

Farthest Playoff Accomplishment: Conference Semifinals 2021-2022 (Lost 2-4 to Golden State Warriors)

Second Star: No

Next Best Three Players: Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks

Current Cap Situation: Over the salary cap by $7,403,728

Next Three Year’s First Round Pick Status: 2023 (Own theirs), 2023 (Own theirs and Golden State’s), 2024 (Own theirs)

Front Office Legitimacy: So far.

Ja Morant is the most fun League Pass player in the NBA. But it’s not all about him. The Grizzlies have built a core of high-ceiling, two-way players who perfectly complements Morant’s game. Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks are more than just enforcers who can guard an opposing team’s best players. They are well-equipped offensive dynamos who are good for 18 ppg each. Their coach, Taylor Jenkins, got his team to buy into a “next-man-up” mentality that allows them to play well even when Morant isn’t on the floor. They have kept the young core together while maximizing their draft picks on high-upside, positionless players.

The Grizzlies’ contending future depends on Jaren Jackson, Jr. He is the only player who has an unmet ceiling worthy of the “star” trajectory. Jackson is the only other Grizzly player who could potentially serve as Morant’s number two. Thus far, he has yet to live up to his potential as the fourth pick in the 2018 Draft. On paper, the 6-foot-11 forward with unusually tight handles and a 35 percent career three-point stroke should be a guaranteed 20 and 10 a night. In reality, he has mostly shrunk come playoff time. He had his best series against the Warriors last playoffs, but he couldn’t assert his dominance enough to upset the eventual champs. For the Grizz to become more than a young, fun team full of potential, Jackson will need to come into his own this season.

Farthest Playoff Accomplishment: First Round 2019-2020 (Lost 3-4 to Houston Rockets)

Second Star: Soon

Next Best Three Players: Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort

Current Cap Situation: Under the salary cap by $18,259,968

Next Three Year’s First Round Pick Status: 2023 (Own theirs and the Clippers’), 2024 (Own theirs, Houston’s, Clippers’, Utah’s), 2025 (Own theirs, Houston’s or LAC’s, Miami’s, Philadelphia’s)

Front Office Legitimacy: Hell yes in the draft, hell no in every other capacity

The Thunder are building something special in Oklahoma City. The problem has been it’s taken a bit too long. How much losing will SGA be willing to take before he wants to win elsewhere? In the last two seasons, the Thunder have rolled out, what appears to be, some of the most blatant and perverse tanking jobs in the history of the NBA. They’ve routinely sat their best players for long stretches based on phantom injuries. Last season, the Thunder apparently rolled out another egregious tank to increase their chances at Chet Holmgren. Now that they got Chet in this year’s draft, it’s time to compete. Delusional Thunder fans are already making excuses for a projected losing season by simping for 2023 draft phenom Victor Wembanyama. But the clock is ticking. The 24-year-old SGA is entering his fourth season and seemingly wants to return to the playoffs after getting a taste of competitive basketball in the overachieving 2020 season.

The Thunder must trust the core they’ve built instead of punting for more lottery luck. Their front office has to be brutally aware there’s not a single player in the NBA that will ever demand a trade to OKC. And it’s even less likely that a player will ever sign with the team in free agency. So the time to show their young core they can compete is now. With Lu Dort, SGA, Holmgren, and Josh Giddey in tow, the Thunder have enough talent to reach the Play-In Tournament. If Sam Presti decides to chase lottery dreams again, it will only strengthen the case for SGA to seek out winning elsewhere.

Farthest Playoff Accomplishment: First round 2021-2022 (Lost 2-4 to Phoenix Suns)

Second Star: Yes, two of them

Next Best Three Players: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Jonas Valančiūnas

Current Cap Situation: Over the salary cap by $23,039,109

Next Three Year’s First Round Pick Status: 2023 (Own theirs and Lakers’), 2024 (Own theirs, Lakers’, Milwaukee’s), 2024 (own theirs, Milwaukee’s)

Front Office Legitimacy: Yes, see Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2016 NBA Championship under David Griffin

How quickly things change in a year. At the beginning of the 2021-2022 season, most NBA observers thought Zion Williamson was next to demand a trade. At the time, Williamson had distanced himself, rehabbing his knee injury away from the Pelicans in Portland. He was seen publicly overweight and out of shape. Many questioned Zion’s drive and commitment to the Pelicans. It was assumed the hapless roster surrounding Zion was reason enough for the young superstar to demand a trade out of New Orleans. But in less than a year, David Griffin, president of basketball operations for New Orleans, built a title contender around Zion. With the addition of C.J. McCollum, and the tremendous growth of Brandon Ingram, there is now a legitimate Big 3.

Last year’s rookie Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Trey Murphy III also proved their mettle in the first-round loss against the Phoenix Suns. Add Jonas Valančiūnas, and you have a legitimate Pelicans contender next year. Zion reaffirmed his commitment to the franchise by signing a rookie extension worth five years at $193 million this summer. To be fair, the modern methodology for superstars is to sign extensions as they come, earning the maximum amount of money before eventually demanding a trade to a preferred destination. But what team could mortgage their future to bring Zion into a better roster than what Griffin has built in New Orleans?

Farthest Playoff Accomplishment: Eastern Conference Finals 2020-2021 (Lost to 2-4 to Milwaukee Bucks)

Second Star: Yes

Next Best Three Players: Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanović

Current Cap Situation: Over the salary cap by $61,990,168

Next Three Year’s First Round Pick Status: 2023 (Own theirs), 2024 (Own theirs and Sacramento’s), 2025 (Owed to San Antonio)

Front Office Legitimacy: Yes

After reaching the Eastern Conference finals in 2021, it felt like Young was heading toward superstardom. He took a young Hawks team into contender status in just his third season in the NBA. But the following year, they experienced a brutal ass whooping from the Miami Heat, who figured out how to shut down the young guard’s “Ice Trae” playoff antics. Now, the Hawks appear to be in disarray. Their “second star,” John Collins, failed to live up to the five-year, $125 million contract he had signed in the summer of 2021. Furthermore, the Hawks were capped out from signing other players to bolster their roster. Nor did they own a draft cache on par with New Orleans or Oklahoma City to continue building. So how would they improve enough to satisfy their burgeoning young star?

This summer, the Hawks shocked everyone by acquiring Dejounte Murray, the former Spurs guard who almost averaged a triple-double last season. Murray will join Young to form one of the best backcourts in the NBA. While the trade did not make the Hawks an immediate contender, it does show the lengths the Hawks franchise is willing to go to build a competitive team around Young. They know a Young trade demand would set their franchise back at least a decade. Young is the best player the Hawks have had since Dominique Wilkins. Adding Murray relieves the scoring pressure off Young, but will it be enough to put the Hawks back on a contending trajectory?

Farthest Playoff Accomplishment: Western Conference finals 2021-2022 (Lost 1-4 to Golden State Warriors)

Second Star: Hell no

Next Best Three Players: Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, Dorian Finney-Smith

Current Cap Situation: Over the salary cap by $46,326,680

Next Three Year’s First Round Pick Status: 2023 (Owed to New York), 2024 (Own but can not trade until 2023 converts), 2025 (Own, next available pick to trade)

Front Office Legitimacy: Hell no, see Kristaps Porziņģis to Wizards trade, Jalen Brunson free agency

The Mavs have officially turned into the 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers. That year, LeBron James, a generational superstar, dragged a bunch of bums to the NBA Finals, only to be swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Today, the Mavericks are in the same place with Dončić, except this Mavs team can’t even get to the NBA Finals. This summer, Dallas lost their second-best player, Jalen Brunson for nothing in free agency to the New York Knicks. To the fury of their fanbase, they butchered negotiations multiple times throughout last season and this summer with the only young player on the same trajectory as Dončić. Now, they will follow up their WCF over-achieve with a likely Play-In Tournament scenario next season. Their roster is filled with overpaid, mediocre talent: Davis Bertans at $16 million, Tim Hardaway, Jr. at $19 million, and Spencer Dinwiddie at $20 million. The Mavs traded Dončić’s best buddy, Boban Marjanović while letting fellow Serbian and Mavs assistant coach Igor Kokoskov bolt for the Brooklyn Nets.

Then they overpaid 34-year-old JaVale McGee on a three-year, $20 million deal while promising him to start, complicating newly acquired Christian Wood’s role moving forward in a contract year. To make things worse, the Mavs have zero young players with upside, handcuffed draft capital, and untradeable contracts. New GM Nico Harrison was brought in for his contacts around the league but has failed miserably to recruit free agents. Even worse, he’s proven to be a bigger bum than former GM Donnie Nelson at retaining the team’s high-upside free agents. The path to improve is shrinking. Losing Brunson for nothing will haunt the franchise for years to come. They now have to overly depend on an aging roster and offensively-challenged coach in Jason Kidd. They looked second-class in their five-game beat down by the Warriors in last year’s WCF, and now their roster is dramatically worse after losing Brunson. Bottom line, of the top five superstars currently playing in small markets, Dončić is the most likely to eventually bolt. It’s no longer a matter of if but when. How do you say “oh, shit!” in Serbian?