Did that Lenny "Wally Wall Street" Dykstra story from yesterday seem a little fishy? (And familiar?) Well yes, his troubles with a few of his business partners have been well documented, but those were just friendly disagreements over strategy and don't really change the fact that the guy is filthy rich from playing the stock market. Surely, his perfect record of winning choices will hold up under greater scrutiny right? Well, Adam Warner of Daily Options Reports wrote to us to share some thoughts about that:
Here's the gist of his strategy. He buys options that don't expire for at least 6 month's. He books wins very quickly. He keeps doubling and redoubling losers. And never actually realizes a loss until an option expires. He started this round on Opening day of baseball, so he's only 7 month's into it. His losers are likely in the pipeline still as the market carnage was in the fall. Now keep in mind also that because of the nature of the strategy, the losers utterly dwarf the winners by a magnitude of 40:1 and higher. So if he has as few as 3 losers in there, he's down on the year. And I suspect he has many more. Keep in mind also, there's no capital allocation limits. He can buy and buy and buy, so unlike every other financial strategy, there's no return on capital that we can calculate.
I have no idea what that guy just said, but it sounds bad. Look, I got a 1.5 in "Concepts in Macroeconomics" in college. I blog for a living. Are you really going to turn to me for sound financial analysis? Or a guy with a .285 lifetime average? Investing Legends: Where Are They Now? [Daily Options Report]