Last week, we got the column out to a nice beginning with a glowing 3-1 start, the only loss being by one point (Bengals).
Of course, it’s not all peaches and roses like that every week, but we’ll do our best trying to maintain the desirable record. And with that, it’s onto our Week 3 wagers.
Over/Unders: 1-0
Spreads: 0-1
Teasers: 1-0
Props: 1-0
Overall Record*: 3-1, +2.9 units
*Each over/under bet graded to win 2 units; everything else for 1 unit
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 54.5
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Wanna know how rare it is when Patrick Mahomes loses a game in the regular season? It’s only happened nine times in his three years as the starter. And only twice has he lost in back-to-back weeks!
That sets the stage in today’s Week 3 division showdown for the reigning AFC champs. When Mahomes is coming off an uncharacteristic loss, he’s on the warpath.
Should we be surprised? Of course not. As I maintain time in and time out, this is sports’ Michael Jordan of the current generation. And as such, Mahomes indeed comes out pissed following an L.
After the previous eight in-season defeats during his career, not only has Mahomes regularly lit up the opposition with a shiny 109.3 passer rating in such games, KC is also lighting up the scoreboard at a rate of 31.9 points per game. He’s all business.
Though it’s “only” a sample size of three years, it’s still telling how consistent Mahomes and the Chiefs have been in these particular spots, never failing to score fewer than 24 points. Thus, we can count on another sensational outing today from the recent former Super Bowl MVP.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have participated in only a pair of low-scoring affairs thus far; winning 20-16 at Washington in the opener before eating a 20-17 defeat to the Cowboys last week.
But let’s be real: Los Angeles isn’t going to stop Mahomes. Like MJ, you can only hope to contain him, and thusly, we can still count on the Chiefs to pace a higher-scoring game script. The Chargers’ low-scoring outputs so far have had nothing to do with second-year standout Justin Herbert, who comfortably topped the 300-yard plateau in his club’s two bouts.
In two meetings with the reigning AFC West leaders during his rookie campaign last year, Herbert shined and surpassed 300 yards in each of those dates as well.
We know what kind of momentous performance we’ll get from Kansas City today. The key will be what Herbert can do, and given his strong beginning to the season in which he’s picked up from where he left off as a freshman, the Chargers appear like they can at least hang in there.
Since this one could be close from the over/under perspective, I’m buying a half-point in case of a 34-20/30-24 outcome. Pick: OVER 54 (-120)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Eagles +3.5/Cowboys -3.5
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday, 9/27)
TV: ESPN
Is this the year the Cowboys finally make a deep playoff run for the first time since the ’90s? That remains to be seen but for the moment at least, Dallas is riding high.
After nearly taking down the defending world champions in the Thursday Night opener, Jerry Jones’ boys were able to go into Los Angeles and beat a solid Chargers team. Now they have the pleasure of opening up the home slate on Monday Night Football. That can be huge.
Even aside from that, this looks like a Cowboys squad prime for some kind of breakout in 2021. Dak Prescott, back from a horrific injury, apparently hasn’t missed a beat and is still racking up the yards through the air. Given how Amari Cooper and star-in-the-making CeeDee Lamb have looked, this only figures to continue.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are not riding so high after dropping their home opener to the Niners in very unspectacular fashion, 17-11. That shouldn’t deflate Philly faithful considering they have their own promising signal-caller in Jalen Hurts, but this particular date might considering how the Cowboys handled him last year.
When these two NFC East rivals met at the end of 2020, the Dallas defense actually had their way despite the unit’s poor ranks for the campaign, holding Hurts to a harmless 70.7 passer rating.
The Cowboys have a plan in place to once again minimize Philadelphia’s dangerous dual-threat quarterback, and with a better D now, that’ll provide them an extra edge. I’m buying down to 3 just in case it’s close. Pick: COWBOYS -3 (-130)
IND-TEN U47.5 —> U60.5
LAC-KC O54.5 —> O41.5
NYJ-DEN U41.5 —> U54.5
GB +3 —> GB +16
A majority of totals usually isn’t the way to go when it comes to teaser bets but there’s quality potential pursuing such an unusual route for Week 3 betting strategy.
While normally, you don’t want to have one straight bet (over/under or spread) tied up to multiple wagers like we’re doing here with Chargers-Chiefs, I think that game can get a pass given Mahomes’ usual mastery at Arrowhead in his career.
Additionally from the 1 p.m. slate, we’ll be taking Colts-Titans Under. How could we not? They’re two very run-heavy teams dealing with a relatively high total on its own, so we’ll gladly add 13 points to that number. Remember that Carson Wentz is playing with, not one, but two bum ankles and there’ll be more reliance on running.
In Jets-Broncos, no one of significance is out or limited. But it’s the lowly Jets, who, unsurprisingly, are last in the NFL in scoring through the first two weeks. Denver doesn’t have a world-beating offense either, so we should be good here with a final score staying below 55 points.
And lastly, like last week, we’re entrusting Green Bay to close it out, except in this instance, it’s not just to beat the Lions, but to either win or lose by less than 16 in San Francisco. The rare times you’re able to have Aaron Rodgers getting more than two touchdowns, you simply take it.
Jacoby Brissett Over/Under 18.5 Rushing Yards
Remember that absolutely bonkers Dolphins-Raiders matchup on a Saturday night in late December last season that was arguably the game of the whole year?
If you don’t, you should. Well, Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB behind center for Miami on that night (before Ryan Fitzpatrick unraveled a true ‘Fitzmagic’ comeback for the ages), but he won’t be in the rematch due to injury.
Enter journeyman Jacoby Brissett, the focus of our player prop bet for Week 2.
Given how wild last year’s meeting was, it’s reasonable to believe that similar action will play out once again at Allegiant Stadium. We’ve seen plenty of Brissett throughout recent years to know that he loves scrambling when the opportunity presents itself, and, well, this one should be ripe with plenty of opportunity for that.
Just look at the Raiders’ season opener, when Lamar Jackson diced them up for nearly 100 yards on the ground. Of course, that’s Lamar Jackson but Brissett carries a similar skillset. No doubt he watched plenty of film of that showing, too, and he’ll get his cracks at that tally. Pick: OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)