Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks: Fleetwood, McIlroy and Lowry Bets

Russell Henley has shot a combined 18-under par over the last two Arnold Palmer Invitationals, finishing in a tie for fourth in 2024 and winning the event last year. It’s pretty clear Henley is highly comfortable with the Bay Hill course as he looks to continue his strong play when the tournament begins in the Orlando area on Thursday.

Henley delivered a memorable eagle chip from the rough just off the green on the 16th hole last season to set up his one-shot victory over Collin Morikawa. He now takes aim at becoming the first back-to-back winner since Matt Every in 2014-15, but he missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in his last outing.

Scottie Scheffler is a two-time winner at Bay Hill and certainly thirsting for another. Tiger Woods (eight titles) is the only player to win the event more than twice. Rory McIlroy won the event in 2018 and will also be a big threat.

The Scheffler watch is always on

Scheffler has three top-five finishes in four starts this season, including a victory at The American Express in Southern California in January. He finished outside the top 10 for the first time this season when he tied for 12th at Pacific Palisades. An opening-round 74 stung.

Scheffler (+335) figures to be in the mix but perhaps Tommy Fleetwood (+1850) and Morikawa (+2700) are worth looks at the longer odds. Fleetwood tied for fourth at Pebble Beach and tied for seventh at the Genesis so he’s certainly in form, while Morikawa won at Pebble Beach and tied for seventh at Genesis.

Morikawa, though, missed the cut in back-to-back years before last year’s strong showing at Bay Hill. Fleetwood tied for 11th and is handling pressure a lot better these days after winning last year’s Tour Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood to win the tournament, +1850 (DraftKings)

Rory won’t roar to the top but he’ll be in the hunt

McIlroy (+980 to win, +194 top five) tied for second in 2023 to go with his victory so the expectation is that he will be among the leaders in the final round. He never shot lower than 70 last year when he tied for 15th. The previous year, McIlroy finished in a tie for 21st.

Morikawa (+440) would seem to be a top-five possibility due to his strong recent play but those missed cuts in 2023-24 do remain in the memory bank. Corey Connors (+7800, +1025 top five) hasn’t been playing well lately but he’s finished third in two of the past five years, including last year, so he is someone to watch.

Sepp Straka (+5800, +820 top five) tied for second at Pebble Beach and he tied for fifth at Bay Hill last year. Tempering that good showing is that he finished tied for 57th in 2024 after missing the cut four straight times.

Rory McIlroy to finish in the top five, +194 (DraftKings)

Lowry hopes collapse is in rearview mirror

Shane Lowry (+4700, +300 top 10) unhappily tied for second last weekend at the Cognizant Classic when he double-bogeyed Holes 16 and 17 to give away the lead and watch Nico Echavarria claim the victory. We’ll know Thursday whether there is a hangover or whether the collapse is providing motivation for Lowry.

He definitely has displayed that he likes Bay Hill with a third-place finish in 2024 and a seventh-place showing last year. Michael Kim (+2800, +1125 top 10) finished fourth last year but is struggling this year with two missed cuts and a 72nd-place finish at Pebble Beach.

One player to shy away from is Justin Rose despite that recent scorching 23-under performance when he won at Torrey Pines. Rose (+4900, +320 for top 10) missed the cut at Bay Hill five straight years before he tied for eighth last year.

Shane Lowry to finish in the top 10, +300 (DraftKings)