MLB Home Run Future Prop Bets: Four Picks to Target This Season

Today, I’m going to look at a handful of individual home run prop bets. There’s always injury risk when you play the overs on these of course so ideally I’d like to play the unders. 

I’d also default to expecting the books to tilt them high since most everyone prefers playing overs on….well most betting markets. But I don’t really find that to be the case. The props I see all track fairly closely to publicly available projection systems, all of which already factor in missed time. So three of my four picks ended up on the over side. Oh well. Anyways, here are my MLB Picks for homer totals.

Jo Adell Over 25.5 (-115 BetRivers)

The one-time top prospect in baseball finally arrived in 2025. He cut his K% to 26.4% and Whiff% to 28.5%, still both bad (16th and 25th percentile respectively) but low for him. And no one will complain about those rates when you pop a 17.2% Barrel% and 37 homers, easily career highs. 

The power looks real as Adell has 99th percentile bat speed and 86th percentile EV. Plus he plays in a home stadium that has a 116 park factor for righty power, 4th best in MLB. Adell is still a weak fielder and that could cost him some plate appearances here and there, but he’s now back in corner OF and his team does not figure to compete for much of anything. So there’s really no reason for them to not just let him play.

Munetaka Murakami Under 28.5 (-110 bet365)

I won’t pretend to be anything close to an expert on Japanese baseball, this is just a hunch that its tough to make the switch from the NPB to MLB. Munetaka has major contact issues as his high 20’s K% 's of the last 3 seasons translate to about a 35% K% here. That’s rough. Of course he offsets that with prestigious power, including 22 homers in just 224 PA’s last year. This prop is in line with the projection systems, I just think high 20’s is a tough ask in Year 1 here.

Vinnie Pasquantino Over 25.5 (-115 bet365)

“Pasquatch” broke out with 32 homers on 56 barrels in 2026. And now they’ve moved in the fences at his home park. Not to mention he’s surrounded by an excellent lineup with Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia likely in front of him and Salvy Perez and Jac Caglianone behind him for protection. He’s not a Statcast monster by any stretch, but if stays healthy I think he’s a great shot to get to 30 again.

James Wood Over 24.5 (-105 bet365)

I get why this total is on the low side. Wood was absolutely brutal in the second half of 2025 as he hit .223 with just seven homers and an insanely bad 39% K%. Yet he still blew past this total on the year as he clubbed 31 homers. Yeah the contact profile looks pretty shaky, he’s also a 5th percentile Whiff% guy. 

But the power should return, his EV actually rose in the 2nd half to 95.4, and his full season 94.3 EV ranked him in the 98th percentile. Like Adell, he’s on a bad team and he will play every day. I’d like to see him raise his LA as it was just 6.3 last year, and hey, its up to 12.0 this spring! OK, it's just 12 batted ball events, but perhaps its an indication there’s an approach change.