MLB Home Run Leader Future Picks: Best Bets for 2026 Season

We move forward today with another prop, Most Regular Season Home Runs. 

Cal Raleigh pretty much shocked the world in 2026 with a 60 HR campaign as a Catcher playing his home games in a pitchers park. He’s at +900 to repeat. I think maybe he gets back to 40, but we’ll see. 

The obvious favorites are Aaron Judge (+350) and Shohei Ohtani (+400). Judge has shaken his injury-prone tag the last couple years, though he did have a short IL stint in 2025 that then forced him to DH for a couple months. If I had to choose between the two I would go with Judge, but I like a couple longer shots much better, so I am going to go with those.

Here are some other best future betting picks to hit the most regular season home runs in 2026.

Nick Kurtz (½ unit +1100 BetRivers)

I’m not particularly bullish on Kurtz as a Fantasy play this year at his expensive price. His 30.9% K% (4th percentile) and 35.5% Whiff% (1st percentile) suggest major batting average issues could crop up. But I do not question his power at all. Kurtz popped 36 homers in 489 PA’s and had an 18.4% Barrel% (98th percentile) and 92.7 EV (92nd percentile). 

He pretty much swings for the downs with a 77.2 MPH bat speed (98th percentile), and as well he should as he has monstrous natural power and he plays his games in a minor league bandbox in Sacramento. Plus he’s projected to bat leadoff for now. I’m not totally sold on that as a strategy for the Athletics, but I love it for this prop.

Pete Alonso (½ unit +1300 DraftKings)

The ex-Met takes his talents to Baltimore this season, and that could do wonders for his home run tally. 

Big Pete popped 38 homers last year, but that came on a whopping 89 barrels. There are variables to the ratio between homers and barrels, but the league as a whole gets a homer on about 55% of barrels, so Pete could have hit 45-50 bombs last year with a little better circumstances. Raleigh’s 60 homers came on 80 barrels fwiw.

To convert them into homers you want to mostly pull your balls in the air, which Pete actually does (20.8% Pulled Air Rate in his career which is well above average). You also need a ballpark that is favorable to that, and he’s moving from a poor one for righty power to an excellent one. As per Statcast, Pete would have hit 36 homers if he played all his games at Citi Field last year, vs. 45 if he played at Camden Yards. And finally, Pete is as durable as they get. 

He played 162 games the last two seasons, and 160 in 2022, while missing all of 8 games in 2023 thanks to a fluky HBP injury.