Miami (OH) vs SMU Prediction: Best Bet for NCAA Play-In Game

The Miami (OH) Redhawks completed their undefeated season before being upset by UMass in their first MAC Tournament game. It shifted them from automatically being in the NCAA Tournament to having to play in the play-in game.

The SMU Mustangs had an up-and-down season, losing four consecutive games to end the regular season. They handled business against Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before losing to Louisville. This, along with the expected return of BJ Edwards, was enough for the committee to give them a play-in chance.

The biggest key to this game will be the pace. Both of these teams ranked in the top 50 of the NCAA in offensive pace this season. They both play slightly slower on defense, but it isn’t slow enough to matter. This game should quickly become a track meet between the teams.

SMU forces their opponents to shoot from deep, and you have to be able to hit threes to find points against them. Miami (OH) ranks 22nd in the NCAA in three-point percentage (37.5%) this season. They have several high-end shooters, along with a few guys who shoot a high percentage on limited attempts.

We also know Miami (OH) is willing to take plenty of volume from deep. Nearly 45% of their FGA came from beyond the arc this season, which ranks 77th in the country. They’re efficient at scoring from anywhere, and they’re going to get open shots from deep in this game.

Teams beat the Redhawks inside the arc, and that’s where the Mustangs score. SMU scored over 50% of their total points from twos, and they rank 66th in the country in that area. Miami doesn’t have an overly good defense in defending that area, and they’ve given up a ton of two’s throughout the season.

SMU has several high-level scorers inside the arc, but they can also shoot at a high level when threes are available. Ultimately, I don’t expect Miami (OH) to have the size to keep up with Samet Yigitoglu. I also prefer Jaden Toombs inside over Miami (OH)’s bigs, but the size difference isn’t as drastic.

This is a game where both offenses thrive where the defenses struggle. Both teams are going to push the pace as much as possible, and this is a game that should feature plenty of points.

Where to Bet: Miami (OH) & SMU over 163 total points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 2-6