Top MLB Playoff Bets for Friday Oct. 17: Best Player Props and Expert Analysis

Unless the Brewers can somehow force a Game 7, tonight is our last double shot of MLB games until March. Let's make it a good one!

Season Record: 26-24-2, -.9 Units

Bryce Miller Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+101 DraftKings)

Sunday must feel like a month ago to Seattle fans, but was just last weekend. The Mariners desperately needed a strong and lengthy outing from their fifth starter. Their bullpen was shot after the 15 inning thriller vs. the Tigers, while ace Bryan Woo was still not ready to go. And Miller absolutely delivered, giving up a 1st pitcher homer to George Springer and then literally nothing else. He lasted 6 IP and yielded just one more hit and three walks.

Now it's a stretch to ask him to do this again as he really had a disappointing and injury plagued season. In just 90.1 IP his ERA nearly doubled from 2.94 in ‘24 to 5.68, with a WHIP of 1.41. It wasn’t just small-ish sample size variation; his K% dipped to 18.9% and his ERA estimators xERA (5.32) and SIERA (5.15) were not impressed.

So why wager on a good outing here, especially with the Jays bats catching fire the last two games? We have two ways this prop hits. One is that he pitches like he did Sunday, or close enough to it. The current Blue Jay roster has accumulated 56 PA’s against Miller and has just a .204 Avg and .280 wOBA against him. 

The other is the more likely scenario, and that is that Miller has an extremely short leash. Woo is back on the roster and expected to follow Miller tonight. He last threw on September 19th, so it's been nearly a month. But he was the top arm on the best rotation in MLB (2.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). Miller’s Outs Recorded prop is 11.5, so the market expects 4 IP. But with Woo ready, I expect a super quick hook here at any hint of trouble.

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104 FanDuel)

The Dodgers clearly played with their food for 162 games. The defending champs look miles better than they did last playoff season when they needed bullpen games and the husk of Walker Buehler in a closer role. They roll out an ace every game now, and tonight we get Shohei.

L.A. has had the luxury of not messing with openers and short outings, and I fully expect that to continue with Ohtani tonight. They slow-played him in the regular season to have him ready for October, but he’s fully built up now as he went 6 IP in his last regular season outing and 6 IP again in his 1st playoff start, striking out 8 and 9 respectively. The K’s are never really a problem for the Unicorn as he had a 33% K% and 14.2% SwStr% in 47 regular season innings. The Dodgers show no inclination to get into their bullpen early, so give me the over here.