Alabama is at -4.5 offshore and in most of Vegas, and that hasn't come down much despite the vast majority of bettors backing LSU—75 percent by one estimate. But it's all "$20 and $50 bets." The big money has withheld judgment so far.

"Going by the pure data Alabama is the better team," says a big-time sportsbook director who's very good at what he does. Unless you think this one comes down to a field goal. That sounds likely, actually.