Big Ten March Madness Contenders Ranked by Analytics

The last time a Big Ten school won the NCAA Tournament, Dusty May was a senior at Indiana working as a team manager for Bob Knight and preparing for a life in coaching.

Considering the Michigan boss turns 50 in December, it has indeed been a long, long time since Michigan State — led by Tom Izzo, Mateen Cleaves and the rest of the Flintstones — captured the 2000 NCAA title in Indianapolis.

Now, all these years later, May has constructed the Big Ten’s most dominant team since Izzo’s champs, which means the Wolverines have a great chance to snap the league’s 25-year absence from the “One Shining Moment” spotlight.

As of Friday morning, Michigan was the odds-on favorite to win it all according to BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and presumably every other online sportsbook.

If you don’t care what the gambling world thinks, Michigan ranks No. 1 in Wins Above Bubble — a crucial metric the NCAA Tournament committee loves — along with a close No. 2 to Duke in the national NET ranking and KenPom.

Michigan’s KenPom rating of +38.39 ranks as the fourth-highest number since Ken Pomeroy started calculating his rankings in 1996-97. These Wolverines — who stand out because of their depth and their frontcourt led by likely first-team All-American Yaxel Lendeborg — trail only 1999 Duke, 2024 Duke…and the Duke team that just edged them on Saturday night in Washington, D.C.

Because Michigan boasts such a high ceiling, yet has struggled to reach it the last few games, May spends a lot of his time these days alternating between boosting and cajoling his bunch.

After Tuesday’s relatively narrow home win over Minnesota that clinched a share of the Big Ten title, May used such phrases as “We have such big and lofty goals in front of us…” and “I know this: The further we get into this, our guys have a further gear they can kick into…” and “Proud of our guys that we’ve been able to weather the storms to go through this (Big Ten) marathon that we’re on to get to this point, but if you get to the last five miles of a marathon and you collapse and you don’t stay hydrated, then it’s all for naught. We’ve got to keep pushing, keep moving forward and getting better.”

But Michigan (26-2) ain’t the only Big Ten squad on the short list of teams with a legitimate shot to capture the NCAA title on April 6 in Indianapolis.

Other Big Ten teams that can win the title

How do we know? Thanks to the steady improvements made in statistical analysis, predictive metrics and results-based metrics over the last 10-odd years — think Ken Pomeroy KenPom), Bart Torvik (T-Rank), Kevin Pauga (KPI), Evan Miyakawa, etc. — it’s easier to identify the teams truly worthy of a championship.

To put it another way, it’s nearly impossible for a great team’s potential to be camouflaged by a less than incredible record. For example, Illinois enters Friday’s visit from Michigan with a 22-6 record. That’s only good for No. 10 in the current Associated Press Top 25 and No. 11 in the coaches poll.

But KenPom sees through the record and ranks the Fighting Illini, who boast the nation’s most efficient offense, as the nation’s No. 4 team. Torvik has the Illini at No. 5.

It might not sound like a big difference whether you’re considered the nation’s fifth-best or 10th-best team, but the last decade’s worth of results suggests it’s huge.

Here are the last 10 NCAA champions and where they stood in KenPom’s national rankings when the brackets were revealed on Selection Sunday:

2025: Florida 2nd

2024: Connecticut 1st

2023: Connecticut 4th

2022: Kansas 6th

2021: Baylor 4th

2019: Virginia 1st

2018: Villanova 2nd

2017: UNC 3rd

2016: Villanova 5th

2015: Duke 6th

Of course, there’s no rule you have to be among the nation’s top six on March 15 or you can’t win the NCAA championship, but it’s clearly the trend. That’s why Illinois coach Brad Underwood doesn’t give a spit that Michigan has all but clinched the conference crown.

“I couldn’t tell you the Big Ten standings — and I mean that,” Underwood said Thursday. “I couldn’t tell you what that is. Michigan’s obviously in a place to win the league, but I couldn’t tell you who’s where. That is an absolute waste of my time.

“I do care about and look at the analytics and where we’re at and the NET and the KenPom and Torvik and all of that. I pay attention to that because it’s got wide-ranging stuff that helps me gauge my team much more than (the standings).”

With Michigan at No. 2 and Illinois at No. 4 in the current KenPoms, that’s two Big Ten teams that can dream on a title. Does anybody else belong alongside Duke, Arizona, Florida, Houston and Iowa State?

Purdue, No. 8 in KenPom, has enough time to climb into the top six, but the Boilers keep flunking key showdowns. With Thursday’s 2-point loss to Michigan State, they’ve dropped home games to Michigan, Illinois and Sparty — and the 23-point home loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 also will resonate come NCAA seeding time.

So, No. 10 Michigan State? Perhaps, but it feels like Izzo has a team similar to last year’s that had to fight its guts out just to reach the Elite Eight. Izzo ratified that viewpoint during Peacock’s postgame show Thursday while sharing how much he enjoyed spending 90 minutes with former Purdue coach Gene Keady that morning. Among other things, they talked about how many teams today don’t seem as together.

“I said, ‘You know, that’s one thing I have: We’re not overly talented, but we are connected and together,’ ” Izzo said.

And No. 12 Nebraska? It has been a legendary year for Fred Hoiberg’s squad, but how can you project an NCAA championship for a school that has never won an NCAA Tournament game?