Bills vs. Texans Week 12 Thursday Night Football Top Betting Picks, Predictions

The Houston Texans will host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. Houston is in dire need of a win, entering this game with a 5-5 record. Buffalo owns a 7-3 record, but they’re still trying to catch the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

The Texans feature one of the best defenses in the NFL. They rank third in the NFL, allowing only .288 points per play this season. They’re giving up a league-low 16.3 points per game thus far.

The Bills do boast an outstanding offense that comes with elite upside. The key here is that they aren't nearly as good of an offense on the road.

Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in points (.471) per play. That number drops drastically to .388 on the road. Overall, the Bills are averaging only 24.3 points per game away from home this season. They’ve only played four road games, and they’ve been held to 14 or fewer points twice.

The Texans are going to feature the best defense that Buffalo’s played at this point, and it’s unlikely they’re going to find sustained success in this matchup.

On the other side, Houston doesn’t feature a great offense. They rank 25th in points (.341) per play this season, and they’ve been only slightly better at home. Overall, they’re averaging only 24.4 points per game at home in 2025.

The Bills don’t have a good defense, but they’ve found surprising success on the road. They’re allowing only .324 points per play in road games this season. Buffalo is also allowing only 18.3 points per game away from home.

The key here is that Buffalo’s biggest struggles come against the run. CJ Stroud is expected to be sidelined this week and Houston isn’t likely to find much success on the ground. If they can’t run against this defense, they aren’t going to be able to sustain drives, and they’ll once again rely on their defense.

The other major factor for the under is the pace. Buffalo ranks second-last in the NFL in seconds (31.3) per play. Houston also ranks 22nd in the same category (30.1).

Both of these teams are going to slow the game down, and they’ll need to rely on their defenses. They’ll likely need five total touchdowns to beat this total, and I don’t believe either offense is going to find sustained success.

Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills & Houston Texans under 43.5 points | -105 at BetMGM

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 17-26