College Football Playoff Nightmare? How Duke’s Run Could Upend the ACC

Georgia Tech and Virginia taking their first conference losses have made the Atlantic Coast Conference race a real logjam with just three weeks left in the regular season.

Four teams (Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU, and Pitt) are at 5-1 in ACC play with two games left to be played. A fifth team, Duke, is 4-1 in conference with three ACC games left.

I’ll spare you the mental gymnastics of sorting out tiebreakers and tell you this: If Duke wins its last three games, the Blue Devils will make the ACC championship game in Charlotte on Dec. 6.

Considering they face No. 19 Virginia, and the Cavaliers could be without their starting quarterback, North Carolina (4-5, 2-3) and Wake Forest (6-3, 3-3), it feels distinctly possible.

On paper, this should be awesome. Duke last won an ACC football title in 1989, two years before the program won its first basketball national title under Mike Krzyzewski and began that not-so-subtle transformation to basketball power.

I’m all for unlikely teams getting opportunities to compete for national titles. In theory, it’s what the 12-team College Football Playoff should be about—no matter what Southeastern Conference commissioner Greg Sankey says to the contrary.

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah (ACC-leading 24 touchdown passes to four interceptions with 2,794 passing yards) deserves to be on that stage. He’s proven to be worthy of the reported $4 million annual NIL deal he signed to join the program as a transfer.

Here’s the problem for the ACC, though: If Duke were to emerge from the pile-up at the top as ACC champions, there’s no guarantee the Blue Devils would even be selected to make the CFP.

Because as great as Duke’s conference resume is—with wins at Clemson, Syracuse, and Cal, and at home against NC State (none of those are actually that impressive this season when you think about it)—the Blue Devils took three non-conference losses and sit at 5-4 overall entering Week 12.

The home loss to then-No. 11 Illinois was closer than the 45-19 indicates and isn’t a bad resume loss. Road losses at Tulane (34-27 in Week 3) and at UConn (37-34 last Saturday) are harder to defend, even if those two Group of Six opponents are a combined 14-5 this season.

The College Football Playoff rules state that the five highest-ranked conference champion teams are granted automatic bids to the 12-team field. There’s no guarantee in there that each of the Power Four leagues automatically receive bids.

Sure, it was hard to imagine a scenario where a champion from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC wasn’t one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. But this potential Duke scenario, paired with how the Group of Six is trending, could be exactly that.

The American Conference seems all but assured of getting a team into the playoff field this season. There are still four teams with one conference loss and two or fewer overall losses this season. South Florida (7-2, 4-1) and Tulane (7-2, 4-1) each have wins over power-conference teams and appear to be in the driver’s seat.

Then, there’s James Madison (8-1, 6-0) in the Sunbelt Conference. Right now, James Madison and Duke are both unranked. But if the Dukes win out, their 12-1 resume would almost certainly lead to a higher ranking than the Blue Devils’ 9-4 record if it wins out.

Therein lies the potential nightmare scenario for the ACC if no other team takes care of Duke in the next four weeks.