There’s no more hiding for college football teams. The tune-ups are over, and now conference foes are getting thrown together like peanut butter and jelly. Don’t like that? How about Bell pepper, meet onion? Cereal, meet milk. Alabama, meet Arkansas. NC State, meet Clemson. Oklahoma State, meet a power five school that hasn’t fired its coach already.
We’re finally going to get to know these programs, and there are seven legit tests for teams we think might be good. A few could affect the playoff, but all will affect their supporters — or the people who can’t wait to deride hated rivals as frauds on Twitter. Five of the seven games are between ranked teams, and three of the contests feature undefeated opponents.
Enough with the cocktail hour, let’s get to the season’s opening course.
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2 / 8
No. 15 Washington at UCLA
No. 15 Washington at UCLA
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A little Pac-12 football after dark kicks off the weekend, with two undefeated, slightly tested teams in UCLA and Washington. The Huskies come in ranked 15th on the strength of an early season win against a Michigan State team that might not be top 10 let alone to 25. (Sparty is now unranked after getting beat down by Minnesota last Saturday. Mel Tucker, 20-16 overall as a head coach, earning every bit of that $95 million extension.)
The Bruins are so far under the radar that Troy Aikman is angry tweeting about his alma mater’s terrible attendance. Friday night sounds like a perfect time for a drive out to Pasadena for those rabid UCLA fans who aren’t doing one of the 15 million fun things there is to do as a college kid in LA. This is Chip Kelly’s fifth year helming the program, and they’ve dropped 45 on every opponent this season other than South Alabama. The Jaguars, who had as many people on their sidelines as were in the stands at the Rose Bowl, were up nine heading into the fourth and Kelly’s team needed a rally to eke out a 32-31 win.
I expect a bigger turnout than that because of the opponent and time slot. Both veteran quarterbacks — U-Dub’s Michael Penix Jr. and UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson — have their offenses off to hot starts, with a combined 20-2 TD-Int ratio (each has a pick), with the two units totaling a cumulative 1,040 yards and 86 points per game.
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3 / 8
No. 4 Michigan at Iowa
No. 4 Michigan at Iowa
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Ease into Saturday morning as the Wolverines and Hawkeyes play Red Rover against each other for three-plus hours. This game is going to move about as slow as me the morning after 17 Busch Lights and half as many bombs of various spirits. You can cook bacon while watching this thing and genuinely have more action in the pan than on the screen. Any scoring play — a touchdown, a field goal, a safety — will matter in a game where the over/under is 42.
Iowa is giving up more yards per game than they’re gaining (232 on offense to 236 on defense), and somehow sitting at 3-1. So, pretty normal. It won’t be as easy to rely on Blake Corum and the running game as has been the case for Michigan, and they’ll need QB J.J. McCarthy to make a few throws to avoid an upset. Not many — the Hawkeyes are tied for 233rd in the country in points per game (17), yet first in points allowed (5.8) — but a few.
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4 / 8
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss
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Also on the early slate, the Wildcats and Rebels get together for an unconventional top 15 SEC matchup. The most notable thing to come out of Oxford this season was shockingly something Lane Kiffin said, and I doubt he’ll have the opportunity to show Mark Stoops the mercy that he showed Geoff Collins, who has since been dismissed at Georgia Tech despite the Ole Miss coach’s compassion.
Stoops’ team has a win at Florida, and an infectious quarterback who bros heavily in the weight room. Apparently, Will Levis wins over everyone who comes in contact with him, and umm, sure. I’m more sold on the defense and what they did to Florida than anything else.
USC transfer Jaxson Dart has looked alright in Kiffin’s offense, but, like McCarthy in Iowa City, he’ll have to air it out a few times to get a W because it’ll be a lot harder to hit their average on the ground (280 yards per game) in the SEC. They’ve got skill players as usual, and they’re at home, which is why they’re seven-point favorites. Now we’ll see if they have the quarterback.
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5 / 8
No. 2 Alabama at No. 20 Arkansas
No. 2 Alabama at No. 20 Arkansas
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Fayetteville was a doinked field goal away from hosting College Gameday for the first time since 2006. Instead, the Razorbacks lost a heart-breaker to the Aggies, and it’s just another week in the SEC for the Crimson Tide. However, the last time we saw Bryce Young and this Bama offense against this level of talent, they needed a fourth-quarter drive to beat Texas.
If Young’s receivers have trouble getting open and making plays this week, Tuscaloosa will be panicking like a spoiled dog being weaned off human food. Sorry, designer dog biscuits and wet food will have to suffice. Before Quinn Ewers went down for the Longhorns, they were moving the ball. Pig Sooie QB K.J. Jefferson will have to be sharp, as well as careful with the rock, to give Nick Saban a last aneurysm. Arkansas running back Rocket Sanders and a nice play-action game could help ease the pressure on Jefferson, and maybe last week’s loss will, too.
With a 17-point spread for the visitor, it seems like Vegas is trying to tell us it won’t be as close of a game as I think it could be. I also thought the 21-point spread in the Bama-Texas game was too low, so maybe the oddsmakers are still giving the Tide the benefit of the doubt.
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No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor
The experts will say that the rematch of last season’s Big 12 championship game is going to have serious ramifications on who wins the conference this year, as well. While that may be true, the title race is as open as any power five conference. What the means for the playoff will probably be irrelevant though. Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma already have Ls, and it seems like Okie State can get caught on any given week.
They’re extra motivated for this game, and they should be. Had they been able to pull out a winnable game, the Cowboys likely snag Cincinnati’s place in the playoff, and become the Big 12’s first non-Sooner participant. Mike Gundy has another high-powered offense, and Dave Aranda’s defense is rounding into form. I’m not entirely sold on Bear QB Blake Shapen or his counterpart Spencer Sanders, and that’s the reason I’m very meh on the impact that this game could have on the CFP.
It’ll be physical and a lot of fun. If one of these signal-callers pops, then we’ll have a conversation.
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6 / 8
No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State
No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State
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We’re not here to talk about, or watch defense. That’s for the Big Ten to brag about until bowl season. The conditions in Tallahassee should be great for this game after Hurricane Ian missed the home of Florida State’s campus, and what a welcome treat for viewers. Sam Hartman gave Clemson fans multiple heart attacks last Saturday, and the Demon Deacons have the offensive firepower to beat any team in the ACC.
Seminole QB Jordan Travis could throw for as many yards as his heart desires against that Wake (weak?) secondary, and he’ll be asked to. However, what’s been as useful for FSU coach Mike Norvell as his quarterback’s play has been the running game. Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson have combined for more than 600 yards and seven scores through four games, which includes Benson’s kick return for a TD to open last week’s rout of Boston College.
Dave Clawson has a dangerous QB who will make the Seminoles work for it. If Florida State wants to get back to contending for the ACC, they have to win games like this one. Miami fans have nothing left to root for this season other than to hope Florida State joins them once again in the league of disappointments.
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7 / 8
No. 10 N.C. State at No. 5 Clemson
No. 10 N.C. State at No. 5 Clemson
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The only thing that could’ve made this game better is if it was in Raleigh. The one time Gameday has visited the Wolfpack’s campus was in 2004 against Miami, and this is the best kind of scenario — preseason hype for the quarterback, avoid a letdown, and get to 4-0 undefeated — they could hope for to get it again. Dave Doreen’s ball club has a formidable task ahead of them in a hungry and fully engaged Tigers team.
The positive from getting torched defensively and taken to OT by Wake Forest last week was Dabo Swinney now has full confidence in D.J. Uiagalelei. He can open up the playbook and utilize the skill players to their most un-leveling of playfields capabilities.
What I’d like to see, however, is if this defense really has the holes that Hartman found all day a game ago. Devin Leary is experienced and more than capable of shredding the Swiss cheese that was the Clemson secondary. The Tigers have been on the level of the Alabamas and Georgias on defense, and that’s a large part of why Uiagalelei was able to win 10-straight games while finding his footing. It would be a shame for him to finally reach his potential only to have the defense squander theirs.