Predicting college football’s New Year’s Six teams

College football starts in a little more than two weeks. And for 135 days, the jostling to become a national champion will be ongoing. Obviously, only four teams will compete in the College Football Playoff but a dozen teams will be selected to the most lucrative bowls, otherwise known as the New Year’s Six.

We won’t know the identities of all 12 teams until sometime in the afternoon of Dec. 4, the day after most conferences hold their championship games. Only six teams are required to be part of the NY6 field: Each of the Power Five Conference’s champions as well as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The CFP committee has never put more than one team from outside the Power Five into the New Year’s Six. I wrote earlier this week about who I think will take the outsider’s mantle for the 2022 season. The other half has no true allegiances to go by.

In projecting the elite 12, the non-CFP quartet of NY6 bowl games has a few tie-ins to follow, like the Rose Bowl being a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 showdown. This year the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl forego traditional conference affiliations to host national semifinals. Who will be those dozen teams to get the biggest spotlight in college football? Here’s my prediction.

It’s a shocker to see the Crimson Tide here, I know. The team with the most College Football Playoff appearances, only missing the top four once since its inception, continues the streak with another stout squad this season. Nick Saban’s squad won the Southeastern Conference Championship last season, but fell in the title game to the team it beat in Atlanta in Georgia.

It should be another neck-and-neck battle between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide this season for the conference and national crowns, with a few more roadblocks in their way. Alabama will continue to be a powerhouse in the sport if its momentum on the recruiting trail doesn’t slow down.

The defending national champions lost a ton of talent from last year’s team but should find their way back to the New Year’s Six as the Bulldogs have appeared in every iteration since 2017. Even with 15 players being selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, it’s a credit to Georgia head coach Kirby Smart that his team has enough depth to get back here, possibly with ease.

The team’s former walk-on starting quarterback Stetson Bennett is back in Athens for his final college season and while he’s not the most flashy or athletic player, having a consistent leader under center will do more for a Bulldog team with a growing target on their back. I’m calling a return trip to the College Football Playoff for Georgia, who has never lost in the national semifinals.

The only school to never appear outside the New Year’s Six since its invention doesn’t snap that streak this season. The Buckeyes didn’t appear in last year’s Big Ten Championship game and still found a way to a prominent bowl. OSU will feel a chip on its shoulder for a “down” season after a year that most college teams would salivate over.

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is my preseason Heisman pick, edging a repeat campaign from Alabama’s Bryce Young. Having that dominant a competitor at the helm should lead the Buckeyes to their fifth appearance in the College Football Playoff. It’s just a matter of which SEC team, if the league gets half the top-four spots, they face in the national semifinals.

My final pick for the College Football Playoff is a return bid from Clemson. Yes, I went bland across the board. If last year’s playoff showed us anything, the elite boat race that is college football is in place for a reason. Either you’ve had sustained success or you’re hoping for a minor miracle to join the sport’s juggernauts.

The Tigers had a down year after a decade full of success and they’re tied for third all-time in NY6 appearances (with a team that appears later on this list). In an ACC ripe for the picking, Clemson should easily bounce back. The issue for Dabo Swinney’s team will be getting blown out in the national semifinals.

For the remaining eight teams, I’ll reveal them in order of when the bowl games occur. Playing in the Orange Bowl will be a team making its New Year’s Six debut — the Wolfpack. North Carolina State does have a lot of deserved hype heading into this season and will be the second-best team in the ACC.

The Orange Bowl features a locked-in feature of an ACC team facing someone from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame. That’s a huge group to pick from. Yet, the Wolfpack picked up their highest preseason ranking ever, coming in at No. 13 in the Coaches Poll. Who faces NC State in Miami?

Another year, another Fighting Irish team that’s loaded. Will they get back to the College Football Playoff in their first season under Marcus Freeman? I don’t think so, but it wouldn’t shock me. Notre Dame is solidly in the New Year’s Six, however, and will stay relevant throughout the season.

This would be the Fighting Irish’s fifth appearance in the NY6 and they have the most appearances in the highest tier of bowl games without a victory. Yup, Notre Dame is 0-4 in NY6 games and we’ll see if losing Brian Kelly to LSU, who doesn’t appear on this list, was the unclaimed baggage it needed to dump to buck that trend.

With all the changes that have happened in Norman since the end of last season, it’d be easy to overlook the best Big 12 team of the NY6 era that’s soon departing for the SEC. No matter who comes out of the Big 12, this is the lone spot for the conference as no one in that league stands out as elite to me and their ties to the Sugar Bowl keep it among the highest tier of bowls.

It comes down to one of three teams for this selection in Oklahoma State, Baylor, and the Sooners. I’ll go with experience and whatever metaphorical chip Oklahoma believes is on its shoulder for the adversity it faced of not competing in the Big 12 Championship game last season. This would be the Sooners’ seventh appearance in the New Year’s Six.

There’s no doubt the SEC is getting at least three teams into the NY6 because of its ties to the Sugar Bowl. And there’s no bigger game this season than the Oct. 8 showdown between Texas A&M and Alabama. It’ll likely decide the SEC West and I lean toward the Crimson Tide. So, this is a nice consolation prize for the Aggies.

Texas A&M won its only previous NY6 game, the 2020 Orange Bowl, and a matchup with a previous and future conference foe is incredibly enticing. The Aggies have a hard schedule but also possibly the best team Jimbo Fisher has had in College Station. It wouldn’t shock me to see Texas A&M make its first appearance in the College Football Playoff this season but I think it’ll end up just short.

The Cotton Bowl has no ties and taking one of those two spots will be Oklahoma-West. Southern California will make the New Year’s Six with the former Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley, former starting quarterback Caleb Williams as well as plenty of recruits and assistant coaches.

I don’t think the Trojans will win the Pac-12 (more on that later). But they’ll do well this year with renewed interest in a program that was once commonplace in the college football elite conversation. Oddly enough, USC has made two previous appearances in the New Year’s Six with a 1-1 record.

I’ve made my prediction for the best Group of Five team clear — I’m going with Air Force. And this is the spot for the Falcons due to the Rose Bowl having Pac-12 and Big Ten tie-ins. It would be a weird and amazing matchup between USC and Air Force. A service academy against a college football blue blood.

No Mountain West team has appeared in the New Year’s Six since 2014, the first season of the College Football Playoff format. It’s been within the grasp of the AAC for the last five years and I think a change is going to happen this fall and winter. Riley-coached teams are 1-3 in New Year’s Six games.

The Rose Bowl duo are my last reveals, starting with last year’s Big Ten champions in Michigan. While I do see them falling to Ohio State and losing out on a chance at a repeat conference championship, the Wolverines shouldn’t have too many other roadblocks this season, leading straight to an appearance in Pasadena.

Although Aidan Hutchinson has departed Ann Arbor for the nearby Detroit Lions, Michigan is still stacked on both sides of the ball. It just won’t be enough to win one of the best conferences in America and the Wolverines will settle with a Rose Bowl appearance against my pick for the Pac-12 champion.

The Utes’ only appearance in the New Year’s Six was last season, a 48-45 loss in last year’s Rose Bowl to Ohio State. Now, a return trip to the Rose Bowl to face the Buckeyes’ rivals should be in the cards after winning the Pac-12. Utah is a trendy pick to not only win its conference but make a first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoff.

I think the Utes are great but breaking through into the top four might be too much for them this season with how many high-level teams there will be this season. That’s within reach for 2023 for me and a big bowl-game victory over a team that appeared in the CFP semifinals last year would be a great jumping-off point to be in national-title contention.