Has Aaron Judge played his last game in pinstripes and a look at some notable 2023 MLB free agents

Judge, the likely American League MVP, will undoubtedly be the most coveted player on the market this offseason. The outfielder already rejected a seven-year, $213.5 million extension from the Yankees this past offseason. His price tag will be heftier than a state fair-winning cow. He’s worth it, though.

According to most reports, there are only really four teams in the running for No. 99 though: The Bronx Bombers, Mets, Dodgers, and Giants. The Amazins are the obvious fourth-place team in this race, in my eyes. They’ve got so many other free agents to worry about and re-signing a few of them would do more for their future NL East title hopes than signing Judge. They could do both, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Giants are in third here. Sure, San Francisco has the money, the need for a legitimate power threat, and is Judge’s hometown team. However, the Giants won’t be able to compete with the offers that the Yankees and Dodgers bring to the table. If Judge does sign with San Fran, it would probably be for sentimental reasons above all else, because while the Giants will likely offer a $30 million annual deal, New York and Los Angeles could both offer deals closer to $40 million annually without hesitation.

That leaves the East and West Coast Evil Empires. Judge is apparently looking for Mike Trout money. The Angel in the outfield is making $35.5 million a year, so let’s consider that as the starting point for negotiations with Judge. The deal will likely come down to which team is more desperate to win right now. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009. The Dodgers won a title in 2020, but that was a COVID-shortened season. Both teams want a title immediately. L.A. would be looking at Judge as the pièce de résistance to push it over the edge into perennial World Series territory. The Dodgers don’t yet know their potential with Judge, and that mystery will give them the motivation they need to outbid the Bronx Bombers.

There is some sentimental value in New York given how appreciated the record-setting slugger is by the team, the city, and the fans (postseason aside), but if Judge wants to return to his home state and chase a title, L.A. will give him those opportunities as well as a massive payday.

Prediction: Frankie Judge goes to Hollywood

I’ve already written a piece on where I believe the best landing spots would be for Correa. My thoughts on the matter have remained mostly the same, but given Philadelphia’s recent success and World Series appearance, the Phillies could be even more enticing than I originally opined.

The Astros are undoubtedly the World Series favorites, and if Houston does wind up hoisting the trophy, Philadelphia will be all the more desperate to make a splash in free agency. Correa didn’t have the best relationship with his former club on his way out, and a loss to the Astros in the finals would give the Phils and Correa a common enemy. Philly has a dire need at short and now knows it has the potential to compete for a championship. This move just makes too much sense.

But if the Phils do win it all though, they could decide that they don’t need to sign any big names. They could instead shift their focus to bolstering the bullpen and defending their title without spending copious amounts of cash. If that happens, I’d be willing to bet that the Dodgers would become the favorites to land Correa. I really hope that doesn’t happen.

Prediction: Correa goes to the City of Brotherly Love

How much is an electric, but oft-injured pitcher worth? The two-time Cy Young winner is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but given his numerous stints on the IL, the Mets’ righty likely won’t be worth as much on the market as his stats would indicate.

That makes deGrom the perfect signing candidate for any team willing to take a massive risk on a starting pitcher — aka any team in dire need of an ace or with enough depth to withstand him missing chunks of time. That screams the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and Toronto Blue Jays to me.

Adam Wainright is likely headed into retirement, and while St. Louis has a lot of talented starters, the Cards don’t have anyone who changes the game. Nobody in that rotation strikes fear into opposing batsmen. The deGrominator would change that. That said, St. Louis’ focus will likely be on re-negotiating Nolan Arenado’s contract (more on him later) and the Cardinals aren’t known for making massive moves in free agency anyway. The Red Birds acquired both National League MVP favorites Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt via trade.

Toronto has three great starters in Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, and Ross Stripling, but free agent splash Jose Berríos didn’t turn out how the team hoped. Even if deGrom ends up missing more time in 2023, the Blue Jays would be fine with banking on a bounce-back from the former Minnesota Twin. However, deGrom would be that ace in the hole that would cover all their bases, if he stays healthy. That said, there haven’t been any links between the Blue Jays and the four-time All-Star. That’s not the case for the final team.

Around the middle of the season, ESPN insider Buster Olney tweeted that the Mets’ NL East rival would be the favorite to land deGrom should he opt out of his contract. Well, it seems that deGrom will do so, and Atlanta makes perfect sense. Do the Braves need the former Rookie of the Year? No. Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider are a fearsome foursome. There’s almost no room for the 34-year-old. He would put the Braves over the edge, however. A rotation of that magnitude hasn’t been seen from any team other than the Dodgers — they have three to four aces every year — since the 2011 Phillies trotted out Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, and Vance Worley (he was good at the time). Given the mutual interest, Atlanta seems the most likely option.

Prediction: deGrom goes down to Georgia

Of every player with an opt-out clause in their contract in the upcoming offseason, Nolan Arenado seems the second-most likely — behind Chris Sale — to opt-in. That said, a five-year, $144 million pact might be too small for someone who will likely finish top-three in NL MVP voting this year.

Arenado has shown no signs of unhappiness in St. Louis. Hell, he had the opportunity to opt out last season and decided to stay in town. However, with the third baseman’s adjusted salary set to be cut in half in 2023 from what it was in 2022, a new contract should be on the horizon.

Yes, Arenado’s generally a very reserved personality, but he seems mostly content with where he’s at. The Cardinals are well-managed and in a position to continue competing for the NL Central crown for years, so not only would they like to maintain one of their best players, but the interest should be mutual. An opt-in and contract restructure seems much more likely than Arenado hitting the free-agent market. That’s probably the most likely scenario in this situation.

Prediction: Arenado stays in St. Louis on a more lucrative contract

Turner to the Yankees has been rumored time and time again throughout the season. While two of the Bronx Bombers’ top prospects are shortstops — Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza — Turner’s experience in the outfield makes him a prime offseason candidate for pinstripes, especially if N.Y. loses out on Aaron Judge.

The All-Star has expressed interest in returning to the East Coast and the Yankees would make the most sense if Turner wants to have a shot at a title. If ring-chasing isn’t a factor in Turner’s decision, the Baltimore Orioles could also be in the running. Let’s be honest though, the O’s might not be a title contender in 2023, but it’s not out of the question that they could compete for an AL East crown by the end of Turner’s stint there. So, perhaps a potential move to Charm City isn’t out of the question.

Given the likelihood that Judge leaves New York though, the Orioles wouldn’t be able to compete with the offer that the Yankees would make. That’ll push Turner to the Big Apple.

Prediction: Turner winds up in pinstripes

The Mets have a multitude of valuable free agents they probably want to keep in town this winter, but Edwin Díaz might be atop the list. It’s not because Díaz is the most valuable free agent on the team’s roster; he’s not. That distinction likely belongs to deGrom, Bassitt, or even Brandon Nimmo. It’s more of Díaz’s status as a fan favorite. He sells tickets. His Timmy Trumpet entrance was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and even if the Amazins aren’t contending for the NL East title again in 2023, people will still come to the games for an opportunity to experience Edwin Díaz live.

While the Mets would love to bring their closer back, every other team understands the marketing prowess of Díaz as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if the righty becomes the first $100 million reliever in MLB history. He’s 28 years old (29 by the start of next season) and already has 205 saves under his belt to go along with a career ERA under 3.00. His early-career gopher ball issues have improved drastically over his last three seasons, and his walk rates have also decreased each year of that span.

Basically, we’re looking for a team with an obvious need at closer — poor late-inning play in 2022, or no in-house options to fill the role next year — who has the money to spend on that position, and will make Díaz their top priority. The New York Mets check every one of those boxes. While other teams could make a push, it’s possible that Díaz gets extended before free agency begins given that Díaz and the Metropolitans have mutual interest. After his club was eliminated from the postseason, he said, “I hope the team comes quick to me to talk.” So it seems his heart remains in Queens.

Prediction: Mets spend big money on Díaz

The Braves and Dansby Swanson have already started talking about an extension. Both parties seem very interested in such an idea and with each passing day, it seems more and more likely that a deal will be reached before the 28-year-old hits the open market. Swanson doesn’t have the same track record of success that other free agent shortstops like Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa have, but he did just have the best season of his career, and he is one of the faces of the young Atlanta Braves core that helped the franchise win the 2021 World Series.

He’s a fan favorite, and without a suitable in-house replacement for Swanson at short, the Braves will probably look at every option available to keep the budding star in town. Furthermore, Atlanta isn’t the biggest market in MLB. Swanson definitely won’t be cheap, but he’s going to be much cheaper than what other free agents will command, but the Braves likely won’t want to risk the possibility of a bidding war for the former No. 1 overall pick.

Prediction: Swanson never hits free agency, signs extension

Despite their record and tough division, the Boston Red Sox didn’t do much selling at the trade deadline this year. That makes me think Boston isn’t ready to give up on this squad. Sure, Bogaerts will likely opt out of his contract, but given his familiarity with Boston and the fact that the Red Sox don’t have a suitable replacement for him at short — Trevor Story make the move back, but the team doesn’t have an in-house second baseman to replace him — the necessity to keep Bogaerts in Beantown should win out.

He’ll demand a massive contract, which he has rightfully earned, and will likely set the standard for Rafael Devers’ contract negotiations moving forward. I wouldn’t put a sign-and-trade out of the realm of possibility right now, but if the Red Sox are ready to move on from Bogaerts, re-signing him so they can at least get some value out of him via trade, would be an appropriate first step.

Prediction: Bogaerts remains in Boston

Amid rumors of retirement, Kershaw hasn’t shot down the possibility that 2022 was his final season. Despite being 34, the lefty ace showed he can still pitch with the best in the game (12-3, 2.28 ERA). If Kershaw does play in 2023, it will be with the Dodgers — the only team he’s ever known. Why would the former Cy Young winner mull over retirement only to come back and play with a different team than the one he’s been with the entirety of his career?

The only question that remains then is if the Dodgers have any interest in re-signing him. The answer should be a resounding “yes!” given that they haven’t won a World Series with him outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but his price tag would likely be a little high for his club. Los Angeles is known for making the most out of low-end pitchers as it did with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney [Editor’s note: Yuck!] this year. Couple that with the fact that Dustin May should be fully healthy in 2023, and there are a lot of reasons for the Dodgers to not bring The Claw back. Los Angeles has the money to make it happen, but if it wants to shift its focus to Aaron Judge, it’ll have to cut costs somewhere, and Kershaw seems a good bet to be the first player to go.

Prediction: Kershaw calls it a career

Verlander will almost definitely opt out of his contract. Despite being 39 years old and coming off Tommy John surgery, he’s a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award and is in for a massive payday this winter. The Astros have seen Verlander’s value firsthand. Houston has had nothing but success with him at the front of its rotation and where other teams may think twice about signing someone of JV’s age to a lucrative contract, the Astros’ window is right now. They want to keep winning titles, and prove that they can win without cheating (2017). Houston will continue to win, and re-signing Verlander will be the club’s first move of the offseason.

Prediction: Verlander remains in H-Town

The Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, and the Giants are the first three names that come to mind when thinking of potential Rodón suitors. Obviously, San Francisco would love to have Rodón return given his success at Oracle Park, but given that re-negotiation talks have been slow, I find it hard to believe the team would let the lefty hit free agency just to re-sign him. If the Giants wanted to get a deal done, they would’ve done so already. Despite alleged mutual interest in reuniting, the facts just don’t add up.

The Rangers are in desperate need of left-handed pitching. Texas’s only southpaw starter with an ERA under 4.00 was Martín Pérez, and he’s an unrestricted free agent this year.

Then, there are the Cubbies. Rodón has expressed his interest in returning to the Windy City before. He loved pitching there with the White Sox and stated his infatuation with some of the Cubs’ up-and-coming prospects nearing MLB readiness. Chicago’s NL representative seems ready to make some power moves, hoping that the likes of Frank Schwindel, Patrick Wisdom, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki can carry their offense. They’ll be looking to bolster their rotation this winter and Rodón seems like a perfect fit.

Prediction: Rodón returns to Chicago, but with the Cubs

Despite his power and hard contact rates dropping steadily each of the last few seasons, J.D. Martinez is still a tremendously talented hitter with a lot to offer in the designated hitter department. The Braves, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, and Cleveland Guardians were all playoff teams that struggled to find a consistent threat in the DH spot. Although Martinez isn’t what he used to be, he’s much better than anything those teams brought to the table last year and his comparatively low 2022 numbers could make his price tag affordable for the lower-market teams on that list.

I doubt a team that isn’t contending will take the risk on a deteriorating 35-year-old with no use as a defender, but Seattle, Cleveland, Tampa, and Atlanta could definitely make a move like that.

Prediction: M’s land Martinez

Heavily rumored to be traded at the deadline, Willson Contreras’ defensive woes prevented a deal from being reached. That said, there aren’t many catchers who can swing the bat like Contreras can. No matter how poor he is behind the plate, he will be coveted. He was fifth among catchers in slugging percentage (.466), fourth in on-base percentage (.349), and third in ISO (.224). He was 33rd in catcher-framing runs (zero), though. All bat, no glove.

His best fit would be with a team in dire need of offensive production from the catcher position that also boasts a rotation that loves to throw strikes. The Houston Astros were gifted -2.6 WAR from their catchers throughout the 2022 season — the second-lowest in MLB behind the Angels (-2.8). While Astros pitchers weren’t near the top of the league in zone percentage — 41.5 percent, tied for 15th in MLB — they also were devastated by working with backstop Martín Maldonado, who also finished the 2022 season tied with Contreras with zero framing runs saved. The difference is that Contreras had a 128 OPS-plus, while Maldonado posted a 69 OPS-plus. That’s a massive difference. Contreras would be a lateral move defensively but would help drastically in the offensive department.

Of course, the Cubs could always re-sign their catcher, but considering their willingness to trade him, it seems unlikely that will happen in free agency.

Prediction: Contreras heads to Houston

An underrated pure hitter, Abreu’s offensive prowess often gets overshadowed by the other first base boppers in MLB today. While his power numbers took a massive hit in 2022, any team with a need at first base would be happy to trot Abreu out onto the field every game. His biggest drawback besides his 15 homers is his age. Abreu will be 36 next season. He can’t expect anything more than a two-year contract at this point.

What’s a team that desperately needs good hitters, doesn’t like to sign long commitments, has a knack for signing older players, and will most likely not re-sign their first baseman? The San Francisco Giants!

Contrary to what their 2022 record might indicate, the Giants believe they can compete still. They led MLB in wins in 2021 with 107 and are supposedly going to go hard after Aaron Judge this offseason. It’s clear San Fran believes its win-now window is still open. That said, I don’t believe the Giants get Judge, and thus they’ll need to find their offense elsewhere. Abreu would be a cheaper, short-term commitment with great upside and a likely upgrade over Brandon Belt. As I said, Belt likely won’t re-sign with San Francisco this offseason and could even retire if the right offer doesn’t come. That leaves the window open for the Giants to grab Abreu, seeing as how not a single one of their top 30 prospects plays first base.

Prediction: Abreu ends up in San Francisco

Bassitt had a very solid season for the Mets this year, recording a 3.42 ERA and 3.66 FIP. He was a consistent middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Mets and would be a very solid addition to absolutely every team in MLB. That said, he will likely cost more than what the Mets signed him for; the righty could command $20 million a year from the right buyer.

Nothing about Bassitt’s advanced analytics would convince you that he’s an elite pitcher, but by golly, he’s been playing at an elite level for years at this point. After losing deGrom, the Mets won’t be able to afford to lose another stellar arm. I fully expect the Amazins to re-sign at least two of their big four free agents this offseason, and Díaz and Bassitt make the most sense. How else will they be able to compete with the Braves’ stellar rotation?

Prediction: Bassitt stays in Queens

Nimmo has a .388 on-base percentage over the last five seasons. That ranks sixth among hitters with at least 2,000 plate appearances in that span. As a hitter, he’s always been underrated by the fans, but MLB executives understand what the outfielder brings to the table. Nimmo’s health, however, has been a major problem, as he’s missed 256 days to injury since 2017, but his potential will be too good for a team to pass up. He’ll command around $20 million a year.

Aside from Brett Baty, New York doesn’t have an outfield prospect ready to join the MLB squad and produce numbers right away. Nimmo will likely be a hot commodity, but the Mets have the money to make it work. They’ve seen first-hand how valuable Nimmo can be and they’ll make the right move by re-signing him.

Prediction: Nimmo remains a Met