Lions vs. Eagles Week 11 Sunday Night Football Top Betting Picks, Predictions

The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Detroit Lions in an important Sunday Night Football matchup. Both teams have enjoyed tremendous success this season. The Eagles enter at 7–2, while the Lions sit at 6–3.

While the wind won’t be extreme, it’s expected to be just enough to create minor issues for both offenses. Ultimately, this projects to be a game where each team leans on its rushing attack — and whoever runs the ball more effectively is likely to come out on top.

These teams have been nearly identical in terms of rushing efficiency. Both rank 14th in the NFL in offensive EPA per rush (-0.01). Still, the Lions have been more productive on the ground overall, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season compared to just 4.0 for Philadelphia.

The biggest difference between these teams comes on run defense. Detroit ranks seventh in the league in defensive EPA per rush (-0.07) and is allowing only 4.0 yards per carry, ninth-best in the NFL.

Philadelphia hasn’t been nearly as strong. The Eagles rank 17th in defensive EPA per rush (-0.01) and sit 20th in yards allowed per carry (4.4).

Essentially, the Lions have been better running the ball and better stopping the run. If this game becomes a battle of ball control — as expected — Detroit holds the edge.

The Lions also own the superior passing offense. They lead the NFL in offensive EPA per pass (0.26). The Eagles aren’t bad in this area (0.10), but they aren’t close to Detroit’s efficiency.

Defensively, the teams are nearly identical against the pass. Detroit posts a -0.05 defensive EPA per pass, while Philadelphia sits at -0.04. The Lions do allow 0.1 more yards per attempt than the Eagles.

Philadelphia has the advantage of playing at home, where they’ve consistently performed better. The concern for Detroit is that they’ve been drastically better at home as well — with noticeable drops in both offensive and defensive performance on the road.

Still, this shapes up as a game where both teams look to control the clock and limit possessions. Detroit should have the edge in the trenches, and catching more than a field goal on the spread adds value.

Where to Bet: Detroit Lions +3.5 (-148) at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 16–25