Miami (OH) Is 18-0, But Can the RedHawks Survive Selection Sunday?

Aside from Nebraska, Miami (Ohio) ranks as the best story in college basketball — but there’s a massive asterisk next to its name that we’ll address in a minute.

For now, just know that Travis Steele’s RedHawks have rocketed to a school-record 18-0 start. If they beat Buffalo on Saturday at home, they’ll tie the best start in Mid-American Conference history.

They keep winning despite losing starting point guard Evan Ipsaro (13.9 ppg, 3.3 apg, 39.4% on 3-pointers) — deemed KenPom.com’s Most Valuable Player in six of Miami’s first eight games — to a torn ACL on Dec. 20.

They keep winning despite Steele building his program (mostly) the old-fashioned way. Of the 17 guys on the roster, only three have played somewhere other than Miami. Starting center Antoine Woolfork, who backed up Cliff Omoruyi for two seasons at Rutgers, is the only RedHawk with a high-major pedigree.

Last year, Miami just missed earning its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2007. The RedHawks had an 18-point lead in the MAC title game, but lost to Akron on a layup with two seconds left.

From that team, Miami lost three key players to the portal — including the MAC’s leading 3-point shooter in Kam Craft (Georgia Tech) and 7-footer Reece Potter (Kentucky) — but Steele didn’t pound the portal in response. Instead, he barely tapped it by bringing in five freshmen and Bradley transfer Almar Atlason, who serves as the team’s sixth man.

“We’ve kind of built the program through mainly freshmen,” Steele told Blue Ribbon in July. “For us, that’s the main source of recruitment here… we’re still kind of using the old model in a lot of ways.”

This model ought to thrill old-school hoopheads and get them on Miami’s side two months from now. But why might college basketball fans need to pick a side? That’s where the big asterisk comes into play.

You see, Miami’s schedule has been light on heavyweights and heavy on lightweights. The RedHawks didn’t have any high-major foes on their nonconference schedule. Not because they didn’t want to play them, but because teams didn’t want to face the RedHawks.

In the NET formula, playing a home game against a team ranked anywhere from 76 to 160 is deemed a Quad 3 game — and they’re anathema to big-time programs. Top-ranked Arizona hasn’t played any this season. Neither have Iowa State or Illinois. A bunch of other Top 25 teams have faced just one or two.

“Because of our analytical numbers, they’re told not to play us,” Steele told Blue Ribbon. “And I don’t blame them. There’s no advantage to playing us. They’re told to play all Quad 4s. They get nothing out of playing Quad 3s.”

Because Miami faced the double whammy of not having the budget to purchase “buy” games at home, in mid-July Steele still had six non-conference games to figure out.

“God, it’s a mess,” he said. “We’re in a tough spot. It’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds.”

Well, here’s how it unfolded: To fill their home slate, they found three non-Div. I teams (Trinity Christian, Indiana East and Milligan) and beat them by a combined 178 points. Of their other nine non-conference foes, Wright State (11-7) is the only one without a losing record.

That’s why Miami’s power ratings are all over the map. The RedHawks sat at No. 44 in the NET after Tuesday’s win, which is roughly the borderline to be in the NCAA Tournament at-large mix. But that’s the good news. Predictive metrics such as KenPom are more skeptical. The RedHawks ranked No. 87 as of Thursday morning — nowhere close to being worthy of an at-large bid.

This gets to the crux of Miami’s problem: While the RedHawks currently are favored to win the rest of their games, the MAC has been a one-bid league since 2000.

If Miami somehow slips up in the eight-team MAC tournament played March 12–14 in Cleveland, does the NCAA Tournament committee find a place for the RedHawks in the 68-team field?

To be fair to the committee, it’s hard to evaluate a team’s resume that might boast just one game against a Top 100 foe: Miami’s 76-73 home win over No. 54 Akron on Jan. 3.

Hoops HQ bracketologist Brad Wachtel tried to answer this question in a tweet earlier this week:

“A long way to go, but 14-0 Miami (OH) will be favored in nearly every game the rest of way.

“Can the Red Hawks get an at-large bid with one loss? Yes.

“Two L’s? Probably.

“Three L’s? Unlikely.

“Awful NCSOS (363), zero Q1 games played. SOR & WAB a major strength right now.”

If Miami finished, say, 31-3 or 32-2 and didn’t make the tournament, would college basketball fans be angered?

Or would they just be happy yet another high-major team with an 18-15 record claimed that March Madness spot?