Minnesota Wild vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Nov. 21st Betting Picks, Predictions

We have a short Friday slate to choose from for our NHL picks. 

But I do have a side I like here, so let’s try to get a win heading into the weekend. 

And it has nothing to do with any local delicacy (mmmm, Primanti sandwiches).

NHL Season Stats: 3-10 (-6.45 Units)

Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins return to the States after their two-game split with the Nashville Predators over in Stockholm. They haven’t played since Sunday afternoon, so they come in with a full nine days of rest — albeit with a long flight mixed in.

Pittsburgh looked headed for a rebuilding year, but instead they’ve stormed out to a 10-5-4 start backed by strong underlying metrics. They’ve outscored opponents 3.22–2.44 per 60 in actual goals and 3.38–3.10 per 60 in expected goals. Regular netminder Tristan Jarry is out, but Arturs Silovs has stepped in and emerged as one of the league’s best early-season stories. In 10+ games, he owns a 91.7% save percentage and 6.40 Goals Saved Above Average, ranking 6th in the NHL.

A big reason many expected Pittsburgh to decline is age — their best skaters are in their late 30s. But the production hasn’t dipped. Evgeni Malkin (5-18-23) and Sidney Crosby (12-9-21) have both played all 19 games and remain elite drivers.

It’s not all perfect, though. Pittsburgh is banged up. Justin Brazeau exploded out of the gate with 6 goals and 12 points in 12 games, but he’s now on the shelf, as are veteran forward Rickard Rakell and depth center Noel Acciari. The Penguins have also lost 5 of their last 7 — though that stretch includes an OT loss, a shootout loss, and two one-goal defeats.

Their opponent? A near mirror image. 

The Wild are 10-7-4 and were projected to build on last season’s playoff appearance. The results are solid, but the underlying numbers aren’t: they’ve been outscored 2.70–2.98 per 60 and are losing the expected-goals battle 3.05–3.19. Goaltending hasn’t helped either, with Filip Gustavsson posting an 89.7% save rate and 0.39 GSAA.

There are positives. 

Kirill Kaprizov hasn’t blinked under the pressure of his massive extension, tallying 11-13-24 in 21 games, while Matt Boldy is right behind at 11-11-22. Minnesota has also heated up with three straight wins and five victories in their last six.

Are these teams heading in opposite directions? Maybe. But it still feels like Pittsburgh is the slightly better side. They have the goaltending edge, they’re at home, and they come in with extended rest.

The pick: Penguins Moneyline