MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday August 27th Top MLB Totals Predictions

We have a full day of MLB on Wednesday August 27th, and I’m going to the New York Mets game tonight. Let’s try to scratch out a couple of wins along the way on today's slate of baseball.

Season record: 2-0 (+1.67 units)

Red Sox at Orioles

Pick: Under 9 (-102, BetMGM)

Remember Roansy Contreras? He’s now in the Orioles’ system and is slated to pitch as the main follower today, with lefty reliever Dietrich Enns expected to open. Contreras has been serviceable in the minors this season, posting a 3.73 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 33 walks over 91 2/3 innings. He’s stretched out enough to work through the order twice.

He’ll face Boston right-hander Brayan Bello, who is in the middle of the best run of his career. Over his last 16 starts, dating back to May 23, Bello has averaged 6.48 innings per start with a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. While the strikeouts aren’t there (19.6% K rate, right at his career norm), he’s thriving by limiting hard contact — opponents have an 88 mph average exit velocity against him and just a 6.6% barrel rate.

I’m not fully confident in what the Orioles have with Contreras, but I don’t think they’ll do much damage against Bello. Baltimore’s lineup is depleted with Jordan Westburg and Tyler O’Neill on the injured list, and Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn now in San Diego. Plus, unders have been money when the Orioles are underdogs. According to VSiN.com, they’ve gone 36-17-4 to the under in that spot, good for a league-best 27.6% ROI.

Tigers at Athletics

Pick: Over 10.5 (-105, ESPN BET)

The Athletics — formerly of Oakland, now in Sacramento and eventually headed to Las Vegas — have quietly played excellent baseball. They’re 17-10 since the All-Star break with a 116 wRC+, fifth-best in MLB.

On paper, this looks like a pitching mismatch: Luis Morales makes his fourth MLB start for the A’s against Tigers All-Star and former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize. But Mize has struggled since the break, posting a 5.34 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. His 20.9% strikeout rate always leaves him at the mercy of batted-ball luck, and Sutter Health Park in the Sacramento heat is unforgiving. According to Ballpark Pal, tonight’s park factor sits at 121 — meaning run scoring could be 21% higher than a league-average environment.

Morales, meanwhile, has good surface numbers (1.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP through 15 2/3 innings), but some red flags lurk. His walk rate sits at 12.7%, his swinging-strike rate is just 7.6%, and the advanced metrics (4.54 xERA, 4.56 SIERA) suggest regression is coming.

Given the environment, form, and lineups, I’ll take the over here.