MLB Bet Picks Today: Tuesday August 26th's Expert Betting Predictions

Hi, thrilled to be here at Deadpin sharing my picks with all of you! Hopefully we can uncover some winners. I’ve covered MLB at Rotowire for a few years as well as on Razzball on the fantasy side. 

Anyway, I’ll track my record and return on investment (ROI) data. All comments and critiques are welcome. It’s a learning process for all of us.

Rays at Guardians

Pick: Guardians-Rays F5 Under 4.5 (-115 DraftKings)

The league as a whole has fared poorly against lefties in 2025, hitting to just a 94 wRC+ compared with 102 against righties. Only seven teams have a positive ROI vs. southpaws, and the Rays are not one of them in first-five-inning bets. They’re not even close, with a 10-19-7 record and an ugly -26.8% ROI against lefty starters in F5s, according to VSiN.com. They also have played to a lot of unders with a 22-14 record and 15.3% ROI.

The Rays famously go platoon crazy to maximize every micro edge they can, but it has produced just a .228 average and 79 wRC+ on the season, both among the worst marks in MLB.

They’ll face an interesting rookie in Parker Messick, who pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 29.1% K% in Triple-A before tossing 6.2 innings of one-run ball in Arizona in his MLB debut last week. He struck out six and yielded just one walk.

On the other side, Shane Baz faces a Guardians team that bats a league-worst .227 vs. righties. Since the All-Star break they have the worst offense in MLB with 75 wRC+Baz has had his ups and downs this season, mostly downs unfortunately. He has a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, including a ghastly 9.22 ERA and 1.82 WHIP since the All-Star break. But perhaps its a little misleading, to say the least. His K-BB% is a healthy 17.6% and his SIERA is 3.76. A super high BABIP of .376 is not helping matters.  It’s a tough battle between the anemic and slumping Guardians offense and an SP that’s getting bad results lately. But Baz is a quality arm and I’m going to bank on Baz holding the fort down and go with the F5 Under.

Braves at Marlins

Pick: Braves ML -125 (BetMGM)

Shhh, don’t mention it to the Braves, but they’re not making the playoffs. They didn’t trade free agents-to-be Marcell Ozuna or Raisel Iglesias at the deadline, and unlike most teams out of contention, they don’t seem focused on giving young players extra looks. Maybe they just don’t have any worth looking at, though I’d argue they should play rookie catcher Drake Baldwin more at DH when he’s not behind the plate.

If you guessed on Aug. 26 that the Braves’ ace, with Chris Sale not quite back, would be Hurston Waldrep — I’m impressed. Waldrep gets the start today, and he’s looked fantastic. In three starts and an extended follow, he’s 4-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His xERA is 1.90 and his K-BB% is 20.2%, so it looks as real as a microscopic small-sample-size ERA can. I’ll back him and the Braves on the moneyline against Sandy Alcantara and a Marlins team that is less threatening at the plate without breakout star Kyle Stowers.