MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets, April 9

It was an excruciating way to see the latest winning streak come to an end last night. That Cardinals-Pirates under bet could have survived a run in the bottom of the ninth, but instead, a pair was plated, with the dagger coming with two outs at the hands of Joey Bart.

We aim to begin a new winning streak this afternoon—and on my personal favorite day: Winsday—with the series finale between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets in Queens.

There will be an interesting matchup between two starters who are seemingly on the rise. Perhaps no one should be surprised by either potential breakout.

Miami’s Max Meyer takes the mound for his third start of the year. If it’s anything like the first couple, the Fish have a good shot at avoiding a sweep.

The 26-year-old has gone deep into the sixth inning or later in both outings, holding the opposition to three or fewer runs. In the process, he struck out at least seven batters in both starts.

Combining his strong start to the season with an optimistic spring training—not to mention the addition of a sinker and a sweeper to his pitching repertoire—the signs are clear that Meyer is finding his footing at the major league level. Then again, he had only 13 career starts before this season—largely due to needing Tommy John surgery three years ago after just his second MLB outing.

Despite Meyer’s delayed development, the signs suggest he’s here to stay. In fact, he showed similar quality work last April when he posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through his first three starts. After that, the former third overall draft pick was undeservedly sent down to preserve his innings for the season, despite his success.

Since the Marlins aren’t interrupting his momentum from a year ago—at least not yet—Meyer looks like a good bet to continue providing satisfactory or better results. He should be capable of holding his own against a productive Mets lineup.

His counterpart, Tylor Megill, also appears to be emerging later in his career. Like Meyer, this isn’t the first time he’s flaunted a similar stretch of intrigue.

The former Arizona Wildcat allowed only one run combined in his first two starts. Opposing batters have collectively hit just .143 off Megill, while he’s also collected 10 strikeouts.

While it remains to be seen if the right-hander will establish himself as a consistently solid starter, one thing has always remained true since his debut in 2021: Megill has never had an ERA above 3.00 through his first five starts in any of his four MLB seasons.

This is start No. 3 for Megill, and based on how he’s thrown the ball so far, I’m willing to trust his early-season success to continue—at least for one more game.

Plus, check out the offense he’ll be facing. Once again, the Marlins are ranked near the bottom in scoring, with 3.45 runs per game, the third-worst in the National League. In addition, only three teams in baseball have fewer extra-base hits than Miami’s 25.

Temperatures in the low 40s could aid our cause as well.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-105, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 8-5-1, +2.23 units
Over/Unders: 7-4-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Cardinals-Pirates Under 7 (loss)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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