MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals, March 30

Smooth pitching from Justin Verlander and emerging young lion Nick Lodolo carried us through yesterday’s bet to remain unbeaten on the year.

On this first Sunday of the campaign, we move to St. Louis for the finale of the season-opening three-game set between the Twins and Cardinals. The home side won the first two contests by a combined score of 8-4.

Minnesota will lean on arguably its best starting pitcher, Bailey Ober, to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Ober may not get as much widespread recognition as such at the moment, but he’s always displayed that potential since first arriving on the scene in 2021.

In his four major league seasons, the 6-foot-9 right-hander holds a perfectly fine 3.76 ERA, and while that might not jump off the page, his career 1.07 WHIP and .228 batting average against certainly should.

Ober is coming off his best showing in the big leagues to date when he constructed career bests across the board — wins (12), innings (178 2/3), WHIP (1.00), strikeouts (191) and BAA (.208).

Yes, he did finish with a 3.98 ERA to his name, but Ober clearly pitched much better than that, as evidenced by his 3.22 xERA (expected ERA). He’s been knocking on the door for an All-Star berth and appears to still be going in that direction.

The 29-year-old had a nice spring training, too, and hopefully that puts him in a good position to succeed out of the chute. He’s capable of handling the Cardinals for his first 2025 assignment.

Speaking of pitchers headed in the right direction, that’s certainly something to be said of reliever-turned-starter Andre Pallante, who enjoyed a significant breakout of his own a year ago.

The third-year right-hander entered the season in the bullpen but would then transition into one of St. Louis’ better rotation arms. While Pallante came away with only a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his efforts, he did perform much better when he eventually left the bullpen. As a starter, Pallante stitched a 3.56 ERA in 20 starts while limiting opposing hitters to a .232 batting average.

Most impressive about the 26-year-old was his ability to keep the ball in the park. Across his 111 1/3 innings starting, Pallante yielded only seven home runs. That’s a testament to the type of contact he draws off the bat, being in MLB’s 98th percentile in barrel rate (3.3%) and ground-ball rate (61.6%).

The Twins sport a solid lineup, albeit one without arguably its best player, Royce Lewis, for the time being. But they can become too dependent on the long ball at times, and if that’s playing into Pallante’s strengths of keeping it in play, he can churn out a decent outing for this bet.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-115, Caesars)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 3-0-1, +3 units
Over/Unders: 2-0-1
Props: 1-0
Yesterday’s Results: Giants-Reds Under 9 (WIN), Brandon Pfaadt Over 15.5 Outs (WIN)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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