MLB Over/Under Best Bet: San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds, March 29

A pair of late, fluky solo home runs—one a pinch-hit shot from a career journeyman and the other a first career hit—turned last night’s Athletics-Mariners under from a surefire win into a deflating push.

Unfortunately, that can happen. We move on to Cincinnati (channeling Bill Belichick).

The second contest of the Giants-Reds season-opening three-game series features a pretty intriguing pitching matchup that some might call a “passing of the torch” showdown.

Well, I may be a little biased toward Nick Lodolo, considering I’m a huge fan of his work and tabbed him as one of my top sleepers entering the campaign. He legitimately has the potential to be great.

Lodolo was fantastic in the first half of last year, carrying a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP into July. An argument easily could have been made that he should’ve been an All-Star.

The 2019 No. 7 overall draft pick, however, started experiencing blister issues in the summer. The injury resurfaced in the following months, leading to a disappointing second half. His ERA ballooned almost two full runs (4.76) by season’s end.

Everything else about Lodolo’s 2024 indicates the southpaw still had a strong overall year. He registered a 3.72 expected ERA (xERA) across his 21 starts and dropped his home run rate to 1.01 HR/9—a desirable mark for someone who pitches half the time at Great American Ball Park.

Furthermore, Lodolo was still striking out batters at a high level. He posted eye-opening strikeout numbers upon arriving on the scene three years ago, logging 11.4 K/9 as a rookie. While his strikeout rate dipped below double digits—which is difficult to sustain—the 27-year-old still managed a hearty 9.5 K/9.

Lodolo’s spring training was certainly encouraging, as he notched a 2.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP while limiting opposing batters to a .196 average in 14 2/3 innings.

San Francisco trots out a lineup that figures to be better than last year’s, now featuring prized offseason acquisition Willy Adames and getting Jung Hoo Lee back from injury, but it’s a group Lodolo can handle.

The torch he’ll metaphorically be gunning for belongs to his counterpart, Justin Verlander, who is remarkably entering his 21st major league season—this one with a brand-new team.

Verlander is a Giant now, and he’ll be seeking much better results than how his tenure in Houston ended. He finished last season 5-6 with a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts. To be fair, the three-time Cy Young Award winner dealt with multiple injuries and even admitted he returned too early from a neck injury in late August. Verlander struggled after that, skewing his overall numbers.

Let’s not forget that just two years ago—while pitching for both the Mets and Astros—he went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA, not to mention turning in a couple of quality outings in the postseason.

While he may not be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher anymore, Verlander’s effectiveness hinges on his health. He had a solid spring training and came off as someone who still has enough left to be considered among the upper echelon of National League starting pitchers.

Seeing the total at 8.5 and recognizing the ability to grab an extra half-run onto the very valuable number of 9 at a fair price, I recommend that those following along on the under adopt this strategy for this afternoon’s wager.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-135, bet365)

2025 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 1-0-1, +1 unit
Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-Mariners Under 7 (“Push”)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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