MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers, April 6

After last night’s comfy triumph, the first-full-week-of-the-season record now stands at 3-3. A winning week comes down to today’s over/under from the South Side of Chicago.

The Detroit Tigers will be vying for a sweep of division rival Chicago White Sox after emerging victorious in the first two games of this series. They’ve won four of their last five since getting swept in Los Angeles to begin the year, and they’re streaking thanks to a productive batting order, scoring just under six runs a game during this stretch.

However, offense may be harder to come by in this series finale. Chicago will have its best pitcher on the mound — left-hander Martin Pérez.

The 13-year veteran joined the White Sox in the winter to be the elder statesman of the rotation. Pérez’s tenure in the Windy City got off to a booming start in his season debut Monday, when he fired six no-hit shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins, yielding just three walks and striking out nine.

Expecting more complete dominance like that performance from Pérez is unrealistic. At the same time, he’s still capable of consistently contributing quality pitching — especially if he’s running hot — and he’ll be in position to do so this afternoon opposite a Tigers lineup that doesn’t particularly excel against left-handed pitching.

Last season, Detroit ranked 26th in team batting average (.229) when facing a southpaw, and although it’s only a small sample size thus far, they apparently haven’t improved considerably in that area with a current .237 mark. Furthermore, their .660 OPS versus lefties also ranked 26th a season ago.

The Tigers not being as impactful at the dish when facing left-handers shouldn’t be too surprising. It’s a way of neutralizing arguably their best power threat, Kerry Carpenter, who is far less effective opposing lefties compared to righties. In addition, we’ll also appreciate the fact that the club’s hottest hitter — and maybe best all-around player — Riley Greene is on the bench for this one.

Electrifying youngster Jackson Jobe serves as the counterpart and will make his second career start. Although the stat line from his first outing wasn’t the shiniest, there were still a lot of positives to come out of his first MLB start earlier this week.

Jobe induced 10 whiffs in his four innings of work and punched out three. His command was a bit of an issue, issuing four walks, but that’s more a product of nerves. In this spot, Jobe will be in a much more comfortable setting — making his first start at home and against one of the weaker offenses in all of baseball.

The White Sox were historically bad in 2024, and a large reason for that was the lackluster lineup that was trotted out every day. They were dead last in team average (.221) and OPS (.618), and it appears not much has changed based on their start to the campaign. Chicago is currently hitting .217 with a .641 OPS as a team.

Colder temperatures hovering in the lower to mid-40s will be in play. Hopefully this is something that aids our efforts for a low final score.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-115, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 6-4-1, +1.53 units
Over/Unders: 5-3
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Giants Under 8 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

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