MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, April 14

If not for an error-filled top of the sixth against a team that was being no-hit at that point, yesterday’s Braves-Rays under more likely brings a different result. But that’s how the week concluded, and we start anew on Monday.

Speaking of starting anew, I’ll use that as a segue into tonight’s first over/under of the week — fittingly, one of the starting pitchers is in his first year with a new team.

That would be Tyler Alexander of the Milwaukee Brewers, set to start this series opener with the former division rival Detroit Tigers (the Brewers used to be in the AL Central, younger folks). He squares off with the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner — oh, not to mention pitching Triple Crown winner — Tarik Skubal.

Believe it or not, I’m more attached to this game because of Alexander than Skubal. Yes, the Tigers’ ace just etched one of the best seasons by a pitcher in recent memory, but we pretty much know what we’re going to get.

Skubal’s been as consistent as anyone, pitching into the sixth and yielding no more than three earned runs in 28 of his last 35 starts dating to the beginning of last year (including playoffs).

After a disappointing showing on opening day, Skubal has bounced back nicely his last couple of outings, compiling 11 1/3 innings of quality pitching while allowing three runs and punching out 14.

For his next turn, he sees a Milwaukee lineup that ranks 22nd in baseball with a team .621 OPS against left-handed pitching. While it’s still early in the season, this is significant because the Brewers have logged more at-bats with a lefty on the hill than any other ballclub.

Additionally, the Brew Crew have launched only four of their 17 home runs this season off a left-hander — that’s in 235 at-bats, to be specific.

But let’s get to the much lesser-known counterpart of Skubal’s, because if you’ve been a fan of Alexander at all throughout his career, you know he’s someone who’s been under the radar for a while and capable of breaking out. I think he legitimately has the potential to be one of Milwaukee’s best contributors in the rotation this season.

Alexander debuted with the Tigers — his adversary tonight — in 2019 and exhibited pieces of what a front-line pitcher can do. Hell, even a handful of years ago, he matched the American League record for most consecutive strikeouts in one game with nine. Unfortunately, Alexander was reduced to the role of swingman on the pitching staff during his tenure in the Motor City.

The TCU product was with the Rays last year and received nine starts out of his 23 appearances. In those assignments, Alexander registered a perfectly fine 4.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Most notably, the fourth-year left-hander saw his ex-team in his old stomping grounds in his final start of last season — and how did he respond, you wonder?

By spinning five shutout innings — this was a huge game in the last days of Detroit’s postseason pursuit, too — scattering only four hits and striking out six.

The good news for Alexander is that his former teammates still aren’t collectively performing well when facing a southpaw. A year ago, the Tigers were among the worst teams versus left-handed pitching, with a .229/.298/.362 slash line. At the moment, for the current campaign, those marks sit at .221/.292/.372.

So long as Skubal provides his usual night at the office, this bet will be about trusting Alexander to be game — and I feel comfortable in that.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-118, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 10-7-1, +2.05 units
Over/Unders: 9-5-1
Props: 1-1
MLs: 0-1

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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