The MLB playoffs begin today, and with that, eight teams will battle for the chance to compete against the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, and Yankees. Yikes! What an awful prize that is, am I right?
Enough joking! Now’s the time to get serious! Here are our predictions for the Wild Card matchups!
GAME 1: Today at 12:07 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
These are two of the most well-managed teams in baseball, which makes this one of the most intriguing series of the opening round. Of every team in the playoffs, these two hit the fewest home runs during the regular season. That said, they have the two lowest team ERAs of all teams participating in the Wild Card Round.
Despite the low ERAs, the biggest concern for the Rays should be their starting pitching, or more specifically, Shane McClanahan. While McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of 2022, he’s recorded a 4.20 ERA in 55.2 innings since the All-Star break. His strikeouts have decreased. His walks have increased, and his battle with a shoulder ailment that landed him on the injured list doesn’t give me any more confidence he’ll bounce back.
While the Guardians are one of the worst teams in the league against lefties, recording just a .645 OPS against southpaws this season — third-worst in MLB — I don’t trust McClanahan to carry the Rays to victory in his start right now, which is all the more important now that these are three-game series.
What gives Cleveland the edge in my opinion is its bullpen. Closer Emmanuel Clase (42 saves, 1.36 ERA), James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, and Enyel De Los Santos are five of the best bullpen arms in the league. Offensively, the Rays struggle most in the late innings, recording just a .664 OPS in innings seven through nine. Against a bullpen as tough as Cleveland’s, that’s basically a death sentence late in games. Unless the Rays can get in front early in every game, they’ll have a tough time getting anything going, but considering how great Cleveland’s starting pitching has been and how hard home runs have come by for Tampa Bay, I wouldn’t hold my breath if I was a Rays fan.
Prediction: Cleveland wins 2-1
GAME 1: Today at 4:07 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
The Toronto Blue Jays should win this series. In a short series, the top of a team’s starting rotation becomes all the more important. The Blue Jays have the two best starting pitchers in this series: Alek Manoah (16-7, 2.24 ERA, 180 Ks) and Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35 ERA, 205 Ks). I know Luis Castillo has been great for the Mariners and in general this season (2.99 ERA, 167 Ks), but he has no playoff experience and flat-out just didn’t have as good a season as Manoah. Gausman has the advantage over former Jay Robbie Ray in every pitching category that matters: ERA, WAR, strikeout rate, velocity, walk rate, and home run rate.
However, if one of these two can’t win their games, the Mariners would rely on Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA, 174 Ks) while the Jays would lean on Ross Stripling (10-4, 3.01 ERA). I trust Gilbert’s high strikeout rate and fastball velocity more than I trust Stripling’s pitching repertoire and improved changeup. That said, the Mariners were one of the worst teams in the league hitting the changeup.
The Mariners hold the better bullpen ERA, but the difference isn’t too big to overcome the difference in talent among the starting pitchers. Toronto also has the advantage in every offensive category except walk rate. Combine that with home-field advantage and there’s no reason to believe the Blue Jays won’t come away victorious.
Prediction: Toronto wins 2-0
GAME 1: Today at 2:07 p.m. EST TV: ABC
The Phillies have the better starting rotation, but the Cardinals’ offense is hotter than your parents’ laptop that has 82 internet tabs open, eight other applications running, and hasn’t been properly shut down since 2016. The advantage should go to the Phillies given that Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, and Albert Pujols are all right-handed hitters. However, the Cardinals were still better than average against righties as well.
Perhaps the Phillies could take advantage of the Cardinals’ mediocre pitching staff. That’s something that could happen. However, aside from Kyle Schwarber (46 HR), Rhys Hoskins (30 HR), and maybe J.T. Realmuto (I don’t consider him an insane power threat despite 22 long balls). There isn’t a single hot power hitter in that lineup. Ever since returning from the IL in late August, Bryce Harper has a grand total of three home runs — all of which have been to the opposite field — in 151 plate appearances. His OPS is an abysmal .676 in that span. His power has yet to return to him, and while Schwarber has a storied postseason history, I don’t trust him, Realmuto, or Hoskins to carry this offense’s load.
The Phillies tried their hardest to choke away the final NL Wild Card slot, dropping 14 of their last 20 games. They’re not in any position to win at this point. They’ll be lucky to take a game.
Prediction: St. Louis wins 2-0
GAME 1: Tonight at 8:07 p.m. EST TV: ESPN
I love the Mets as a sleeper World Series pick. It’s hard to bet against them with a four-man rotation of Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA, 173 Ks), Jacob deGrom (14.3 SO/9IP), Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (12-5, 3.49 ERA). Sure, they choked away the NL East, but their season is far from over. If any team choked harder down the final stretch of the season though, it’s the San Diego Padres.
Considered a World Series contender at the trade deadline, the Friars slowly faded into obscurity as Josh Hader pitched atrociously (7.31 ERA in 19 games with San Diego), Juan Soto didn’t hit to his standards (.236/.388/.390), Josh Bell didn’t hit to little league standards (.192/.316/.271), and Fernando Tatís Jr. got caught taking ringworm medication. The only person worth their stuff in that lineup is Manny Machado (.298 average, 32 HRs, 102 RBI). The Padres have a mediocre bullpen, a solid starting rotation that just doesn’t compete with the Mets, and a lineup that seems allergic to hitting home runs. While they don’t strike out very often, the Mets are the best pitching staff in the league when it comes to generating strikeouts. There is literally nothing to like if you’re a Padres fan. They’ll probably steal one game as the Mets have endured their own struggles in the final stretch of the season, but by every reasonable measure, the Mets should have no problem.
Prediction: New York wins 2-1