Monday’s MLB Best Bets: August 11th Top Baseball Picks

After ripping through the Mets and boosting their win streak to nine games, Milwaukee owns the NL Central — leading the Cubs by six games — as it opens a three-game set with the last-place team in the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

And there’s a big week ahead for the NL West with the Padres pushing to catch the Dodgers.

Welcome to the pennant chase.

Here are our best bets for Monday, Aug. 11:

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

In the past seven games between the Brewers and Pirates, they’ve combined for at least nine runs on five occasions and hit double digits four times.

The Brewers hand the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (9-4, 3.57 ERA) against fellow left-hander Andrew Heaney (5-9, 4.77). We’re expecting some fireworks — nothing new for the Brew Crew. The Brewers trailed 5-0 Sunday before a home-run barrage capped by Isaac Collins’ walk-off in the ninth.

The win was the 12th in the last 13 games for the Brewers, who improved to 73-44 and are on pace for 101 wins.

The Pirates flirted with a big comeback of their own Sunday against the Reds. They trailed 4-0 before tying the game with four unanswered runs spanning the fourth and fifth innings. Pittsburgh then pulled to 9-8 with a three-run rally in the eighth before Jared Triolo struck out to end the inning. Cincinnati scored five runs in the ninth to seal the win.

Quintana has a record of 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 career starts against the Pirates, with whom he played during the 2022 season.

Heaney is 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA in five starts against the Brewers.

Pick: Over 8 runs (-120 at FanDuel)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

It’s feasible the Dodgers could wake up in second place in the National League West this weekend.

That’s because the team closing fast on L.A. in the standings, the San Diego Padres, will tangle with the Dodgers in a pivotal series this weekend. But first, the Dodgers get a chance to build some breathing room with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (10-7) on the mound Monday night against Jose Soriano.

Nobody can point a finger at Shohei Ohtani for the Dodgers’ recent performance. While the Dodgers are 5-5 in their past 10 games, Ohtani carries a nine-game hitting streak — three home runs, three doubles and a .400 average — into the matchup. Mookie Betts is picking up his pace, too, with hits in each of the past five games.

Soriano has made one career relief appearance against the Dodgers and is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA. He has lost back-to-back starts (Rays, Rangers).

After Soriano allowed seven runs on seven hits in four innings in a 7-3 loss to the Rays on Tuesday, Angels pitching coach Barry Enright enlisted the help of Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez to discuss how Soriano could mix up his pitch selection.

The Dodgers are patient and produce base-running opportunities at a near-record clip.

Pick: Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts (-126 at FanDuel)

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET

Yu Darvish has a 6.51 ERA and one win since returning from an extended stint on the injured list, but a division rivalry in the heat of the National League West pennant chase might be exactly what he needs to boost his 2025 numbers.

Darvish gave up 17 runs in 16 2/3 innings in four starts after being activated, but he has allowed only five hits and three runs in his last 11 innings. The Padres won both of those starts, defeating the Mets and Diamondbacks.

There isn’t a player in the Giants’ lineup with an extra-base hit against Darvish in a combined 39 career at-bats.

In his six total starts since coming back on July 7, Darvish has three games with five-plus strikeouts and had a season-high seven against the Diamondbacks last week. We are siding with the conservative line, but those willing to risk Darvish lasting long enough to get six or seven strikeouts could double or triple their profit. He’s +580 for seven-plus strikeouts on Monday night.

Pick: Darvish 5+ strikeouts (+130 at FanDuel)