NBA Cup Breakdown: How Each Team Can Still Advance

Whether you believe the NBA Cup is runneth over in holiday cheer or is a foolhardy attempt to steal an interest-grabber from America’s most boring sport, we can all agree on one thing as the event navigates a third edition.

The teams do try hard.

That’s because, unlike the rest of the regular season, the bosses insist upon it.

So while the grand prize isn’t anything to get excited about, at least the road to Las Vegas has some intriguing visuals.

In order to get to the conference semifinals – in Vegas language, the Hard-Way Eight – you’re either going to have to finish first in your group or be the best of the non-winners, that fourth team earning the lone wild-card spot in each conference.

The television executives will decide which games we get to see during the round-robin portion of the competition, which means a general lack of creativity. On Cup opening night last week, Prime Video brought us three big-name teams – the Celtics, 76ers and Lakers – who won a total of ONE playoff series a year ago.

But, hey, Jayson Tatum and LeBron James can dress with the best of them.

Wisely, NBC Lite will focus on the West in its telecasts this Friday, but given the options, you’d have thought it could have done better than the Rockets without Fred VanVleet and the Warriors without Stephen Curry.

Frankly, it doesn’t matter. I’ll be among the millions focusing on high school football playoffs the next few weeks, waiting for the real Cup action to start in the conference semifinals on Dec. 9.

As I monitor scores on my phone, here’s who I will be rooting for to earn advancement and their Date Of Eight matchup …

Raptors vs. Bulls

No team has been more entertaining in the early going than the Raptors, and no team has been more surprising than the Bulls. So this seems like the ideal time for them to duel … because the chances of seeing it when things get serious in the playoffs are slim.

How the Raptors can get there:
The favorite in East Group A (Cleveland) is staggering and has already lost its Cup opener – to Toronto, no less – so the door swings wide open for a surprise winner here. A narrow loss to the Hawks on the road Friday could set up the Raptors to be the wild-card winner.

How the Bulls can get there:
Like Toronto, the Bulls have already shaken things up in East Group C with a 10-point opening win over the favorite, the Knicks. Even a close loss Friday at Milwaukee likely would be OK, if the Bulls can take care of business against the Heat and Hornets down the line.

Hawks vs. Celtics

With holdover injuries already having made the NBA’s lightweight conference even lighter, everyone has their eye on the Celtics as we ponder whether they might actually be better without Tatum in the lineup. A national-spotlight game against one of the conference’s so-called sleeper teams could help create a consensus of opinion.

How the Hawks can get there:
A home win Friday over the Raptors would make the Hawks a serious favorite to claim East Group A. Having already won at Indiana by 20, a top seed in the quarterfinals – likely to come down to point differential between group winners – would also be very much in Atlanta’s reach.

How the Celtics can get there:
A one-point win at Philadelphia has the Celtics in the driver’s seat before three teams in East Group B have even tipped off. A win Friday at Orlando would be nice, but sweeping the Pistons and Nets at home – especially if they could run up some big numbers against lowly Brooklyn – could be enough to earn Boston advancement.

Grizzlies vs. Rockets

While most NBA headlines in the early going have focused on the Thunder’s chances of going 82-0 and the possibility of Luka Doncic averaging 50 points a game, a couple of real-news stories have begun to unfold and could soon be linked.

Will the Rockets foolishly move forward without a dependable point guard? And what will the Grizzlies do with their unwanted ballhandling wizard? Perhaps an eye-catching show by Ja Morant in the Western semifinals – at Houston, no less – could bring those two worlds together.

How the Grizzlies can get there:
It’s unlikely, but a basketball fan can dream. The West Group B is loaded with the Lakers, Clippers and Mavericks, so forget about going unbeaten. And the Grizzlies can forget about their earlier home loss to the Lakers, because sweeping the final three games probably will be enough to stun the group’s heavyweights.

How the Rockets can get there:
West Group C also is a monster, as the Rockets will find out when they open Cup play Friday night at San Antonio. They’ll get the Nuggets at home eventually, and winning that one (as well as one of their road games at either San Antonio or Golden State) could set up the Morant showcase.

Spurs vs. Thunder

Let’s be honest: The NBA’s two top attractions right now are Victor Wembanyama and the defending champs, and the clueless NBA schedule-maker has us waiting until Dec. 23 to see them go head-to-head for the first time.

The NBA Cup could accomplish the best thing in its history by giving us one more Wemby vs. The World showdown, even earlier than the NBA has scripted it.

How the Spurs can get there:
Likely, the Spurs would have to go the wild-card route in order to draw the Thunder at this point. And given the gauntlet of the West Group C – the Spurs will end group play at Denver – second place is very much a possibility.

How the Thunder can get there:
That’s easy. They drew an Eastern-level group – Suns, Timberwolves, Kings and Jazz – which puts them in the fast lane toward the Western semis. Not that they needed any help.