NBA Finals 2025 Best Bets: Game 1 Picks, Series Odds, and MVP Value Plays

It’s not the Super Bowl, but sportsbooks still carry an extensive menu of betting markets for the NBA Finals. With the series getting underway soon, there’s no better time to dive into my NBA Finals Best Bets list. Odds are provided via DraftKings unless otherwise noted, but line shopping is always recommended to ensure you’re getting the best price before locking in your bets.

NBA Finals Game 1 Odds

Indiana Pacers (+9) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-410), o/u 231
Pick: Over 231 points (-112)

We’ve got two great teams with deep rosters, plenty of talent, and incredible offensive firepower. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the underdog Pacers play with more urgency and pull off an upset in Game 1.

But it’s just as easy to picture the Thunder defense stepping up and putting the clamps on Indiana.

That said, both regular-season matchups between these teams cleared 231 points (120–114 and 132–111). In the playoffs, with a total of 231, the over is 9–7 for the Pacers and 5–11 for the Thunder. That doesn’t scream “lock,” but the trends from their head-to-head games give the edge to the over.

NBA Finals Series Odds

Pacers +500 / Thunder -700
Pick: Pacers +500 (with a no-sweat bet)

Oklahoma City is listed at -700 to win the series, which implies an 87.5% chance to take the title. A sure thing? Maybe. But would you risk $700 to win $100?

I wouldn’t.

Yes, the Thunder have the better defense, but Indiana has leveled up in the postseason. If the Pacers can keep it going and slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they’ve got a shot. They certainly have the firepower to hang with OKC.

Will they actually win? Can’t say. But at +500, the value is there—especially if you’re placing the bet with some kind of insurance (like a no-sweat promo).

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -600
Tyrese Haliburton +750
Pascal Siakam +1600
Pick: Haliburton +750 / Siakam +1600 (split stake)

If the Thunder win it all, SGA is the most likely MVP. But at -600, the value is nonexistent.

If you think Indiana has a real shot, MVP will almost certainly go to either Tyrese Haliburton or Pascal Siakam. Siakam leads the team in postseason scoring, while Haliburton has posted eight double-doubles and a triple-double.

Siakam has been more consistent, but Haliburton has the higher ceiling—if he gets hot, he could go nuclear.

Rather than choosing between the two, split your stake and ride both. If Indiana wins, one of them is almost guaranteed to cash.