NBA Over/Under Best Bet: Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn Nets, March 6

I certainly picked the worst time to go through a rut, as has been on display since returning to Deadspin a week ago.

The good news is that all poor stretches must come to an end, and that will be our main objective in trying to secure this Thursday’s over/under on the hardwood between the Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets.

Now, you might be thinking, “Oh, if the Nets are involved, surely you’re thinking a low-scoring affair, right?”

Wrong.

True, Brooklyn is second to last in the NBA with its puny scoring total of 105 points per game as a team. However, remember that the Nets have dealt with a myriad of injuries this season, and for the first time since the fall, they have everyone back to full health (aside from Noah Clowney).

The most important player back in action is undoubtedly Cam Thomas, Brooklyn’s fourth-year sensation. The former LSU product is averaging career bests across the board in points (24.2), field-goal percentage (44.5), free-throw percentage (88.1), three-pointers per game (2.8), rebounds (3.4) and assists (3.4).

While tonight marks only his third game back from injury, it looks like Thomas won’t be on a minutes restriction, unlike in his previous two games when he suited up for about 25 minutes apiece. Thomas also played like he hadn’t missed a beat, totaling 40 points in those 50-ish minutes of action.

Ironically, the 23-year-old got hurt in the Nets’ first matchup with the Warriors earlier this season, which came back in late November. In that game, Thomas blasted Golden State for 23 points in only 23 minutes before sustaining a left hamstring strain. He would miss all but two of the next 40 games before returning last Thursday.

Armed with D’Angelo Russell and Cameron Johnson by his side, this is a far more potent group than it was over the past few months, and that figures to show up on the scoreboard.

On the Warriors’ side, they, too, have experienced a rejuvenation recently that will propel the offense. Sure, one of the greatest basketball players in history, Steph Curry, is still shooting lights out from wherever he launches a shot, but it has been the addition of veteran Jimmy Butler that has really uncorked Golden State when in possession of the basketball.

Before acquiring Butler from Miami last month, the Warriors were averaging a mere 111.7 points per game – uncharacteristically low for them. But in the 10 games since landing Butler, they’ve gone 9-1 while notching 120.9 points per game as a club.

For comparison, if this were the Warriors’ scoring average for the season, they’d rank fourth in the NBA.

When the two teams previously met in November, they engaged in a high-scoring 128-120 shootout – surprisingly won by the Nets. With both teams now at full strength, I’m expecting something not too far off that enthralling pace. In turn, that means go with the over in this one.

Pick: Over 223 (-108, FanDuel)

NBA Betting Record: 17-15, -0.71 unit
Over/Unders: 5-5
Everything Else: 12-10

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit.

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